11/21/2012 3:19PM

Balmoral: Saturday 11/24 Analysis



Race 1

(3) FOX VALLEY IVAN got used up early last out but was improving with every start prior; bounces back. (1) SO IDEAL somehow got parked the mile from the four hole last out.  Well-bred gelding had been flashing big moves a few starts back. (8) SERGEANT STRYKER will probably be the overwhelming favorite off his last three efforts, which have been superb.

Race 2

(6) MAJOR MALE the drop in class gave the 4yr old a wake up call. This turns out to be a weaker field than his last where he crossed the finish line first. (8) CELTIC MANOR had a deceptively good effort last week where he finished up nicely. (1) UNITY ROAD took a week off and he could benefit from that.  Gelding has an entry mate who won in this class last out.

Race 3

(5) OLIVER BROWN gamely held off a rival last start to get the victory.  Gelding is right back in the same class and gets a better post.  (8) WESTERN DEAL closed from way back for a hot trainer last out.  I will caution the mile set up perfectly for him though.  (1) BURSTING BLAZE has been in the money 4 of last 5 starts and gets the best post.

Race 4

(6) MAJOR TIPPER takes a monster drop in class and is versatile; short price.  (5) JO JO SPUR was parked for most of the mile last out.  Gelding could be the only threat to the top choice.  (8) CASINO CAPTOR would have won easily with any kind of a drive last out missing in a tight photo.  Gelding finds himself in the same class but is facing much tougher.

Race 5

(7) BRUSH THIRTEEN takes a bump up in class but has the speed and talent to overcome.  (5) DAVE'S BID gelding has been racing gamely and could use a smooth trip.  (4) SOUTH BOUND squandered a perfect trip in last and will probably be a shorter price.

Race 6

(6) SOUTHWIND ROYAL well bred gelding looks like he could be turning a corner and finds a softer spot.  (8) BRING IT ON KAAJAY has been racing well but should have come home a little better last out.  (5) JUSTLIVINTHEDREAM gelding has been racing consistently and will probably be back up front early.

Race 7

(7) MAKIN' A STATEMENT takes a drop in class and has made the most money in the field; vulnerable late.  (8) WILLOW GRAM has had her nose on the money in last two.  Filly loves to have a target and could be set up nicely with a fast pace.  (4) PEACE went from awesome to awful last out but could be in line for a good trip.

Race 8

(2) PERRITO CALIENTE gelding owns some back class and has a good post.  (9) DRIVE 'EM COWBOY put in a huge effort last out and could benefit by the leaders mixing it up early.  (6) DODGER was flying at the end of the mile last start; command a price.

Race 9

(9) BETTERLUVNEXTTIME tipped off cover and exploded last start; tough to go against.  (8) HOPONIT classy Indiana bred ships in for a trainer who came to win; facing less.  (6) SECTIONLINE YANKEE 3yr old facing older could be getting a little tired late in year despite her limited starts.

Race 10

(5) HOLDINGALLTHECARDS found the invite a little tough drops back down.  Gelding has been awesome and shows big late kick.  (2) CHEWY BACA gelding has had a great year and besides top choice looks to fit in nicely; use underneath. (7) FIVEKNUCKLESHUFFLE 19 for 19 in the money but could be facing his toughest field to date.

Race 11

In what looks to be a wide open race I give (5) PARK LANE DEPUTY a slight class edge over the rest.  (8) BEST MAN HANOVER gelding put in a big effort last out and is versatile.  (7) DABESTLEADEREVER is facing a tough field but owns good gate speed and should be forwardly placed.

Race 12

(9) DONT WORRY B HAPPY takes a drop in class and looks to be in a good spot to get piece: drivers choice. (2) WALTAKAWALCEK gelding is immensely talented but has yet to put it all together.  Was gapping last start before putting in a huge effort. (1) AJ GET'S THE MONEY has the best post and the best gate speed.  Gelding could be in line for a good ground saving trip if he gets covered up.

Race 13

(4) QUALITY SPORT has put in two very good efforts in this class so far: expect the same. (1) SHAX has won two straight and gets the best post.  Gelding looks to be a short price. (5) ANOTHER BEAUTY used to be short the last part of the mile but has now won 2 of 4 starts and finds a similar field.


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