11/14/2013 4:14PM

Balmoral: Saturday 11/16 Analysis


Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (54 - 115 / $193.80): IGOTYOURCRAZY (1st)

Spot Play: IN OVER MY HEAD (11th)


Race 1

In a very weak field (4) IGOTYOURCRAZY takes a significant drop in class and looks very tough to beat; short price.   (9) FOX VALLEY ANDY has been racing better than most of the field and could be the only threat to the top choice if there was one.  (8) SADIES HERO has shown a decent burst of speed in a few starts; use underneath.

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Race 2

(1) AQUA ARTIST mare has been facing much tougher, draws the rail, and will be on top early.  (3) DUNE IN RED filly has been sharp but the top choice could be too much to handle.  (2) MUY CALIENTE well-bred mare has been racing gamely at Maywood and should be in a great spot turning for home.

Race 3

(7) EVERGREEN'S EARL trotting-bred pacer will offer a huge price but had flashed some talent.  The trainer is known for sending them to the track ready.  (4) OHTOBEAVET gelding finds a weak field and is probably the horse to beat.  (3) SANTANNA LONG LEGS looked to be home free before stopping badly and will probably try from off the pace.

Race 4

(3) SEXY CARD SHARK is on a roll and might have more in the tank.  (4) SECTIONLINE PAMELA adds second-time lasix shipping in from Hoosier.  The filly has a nice pedigree and might be ready for an improved effort.  (10) SMASHY CERISE is saddled with the worst post but has been used aggressively in her last few and could hit the board with the right fractions up front.

Race 5

(8) RITASCAPE filly has the most upside in the race and was super-sharp last out off over a year layoff.  The 3-year-old should only move forward and will be tough to deny with a smooth trip.  (1) SCHMATIE gets a big post and drivers' edge on the top choice; threat.  (5) WHISTLE PIG mare made up a ton of ground late last out and has turned it around recently.

Race 6

(3) KATE THE GREAT mare is better when making one move from the back.  The 5-year-old pacer went a big three quarters of a mile before getting picked off late.  (5)WEEKEND LOVE also went a big effort last out uncovered against the top choice to get the victory.  (8) CAMS SAHBRA mare has really good closing ability and has been racing much better than her lines show.

Race 7

(6) MY BOY CAL gelding doesn't win very often but is dropping and facing easier; fires late.  (5) BELL VALLEY BILL pacer adds the top driver and has been known to pace some big miles off bad-looking lines.  (8) MONOPOLY MAN three-year-old faces older but has been really consistent and will probably try and fire for position.

Race 8

(1) BOOGIE NIGHTS Indiana bred pacer was the top drivers' choice of three and has been pacing some good miles in his last few.  (2) LUCKY CRUSADER gelding is sharp and might have the highest ceiling in the race.  (6) JERRICO the top driver opted off but the pacer does come off a nice effort splitting horses late for the victory.

Race 9

(2) ST ELMO HERO paced a big mile in the American National last out and now finds the softest field he's faced all year.  (5) MAJOR MONET should the top choice falter this guy has a huge chance; fires early.  (1) JUSTA COWBOY gelding gets the best post and should be in line for a ground-saving trip before shaking loose late.

Race 10

In an extremely wide open and tough race to handicap (2) LENNOX BLUE CHIP gets the best post and looks to outclass most of the field.  (3) CASINO CAPTOR paced a huge mile last out and finds a field full of question marks.  (1) FOUR STARZZZ Z gelding drops in class but has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 11

(4) IN OVER MY HEAD seven-year-old stallion looked to be shot out of a cannon out every step of the mile last week and might offer a nice price.  (1) BEST MAN HANOVER gelding has a lot of positives going for including the top driver/trainer combo and the best post.  (8) FIRSTCLASSALLTHWAY could be the sleeper in the race and in the right setup can close with the best of them.

Race 12

(6) JUST BY DESIGN was the top driver's choice and faces much easier competition than the mare has been used to.  (5) JETTIN JAMIE mare looked awful last out but was good her first start back off the layoff.  The filly has a ton of ability when right.  (1) NINA COLEADA has just been racing evenly; use underneath.

Race 13

In another wide open race (4) LONG TERM the sophomore pacer has beat some decent fields this year and is versatile.  (1) STAMPED BY DESIGN gelding was the drivers choice and was used very aggressively last out.  (5) I'M BLUE TOO has also been pacing some good miles and finds a wide open race


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