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Balmoral: Saturday 10/5 Analysis
By Jeremey Day
Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Best Bet (50 - 103 / $180.80): OHTOBEAVET (4th)
Spot Play: BEST MAN HANOVER (9th)
(4) TRULY WILD offers a big morning line and if the 2-year-old should race back to first two efforts he would win. (2) DUNSIDE ART freshman pacer was the top drivers' choice and gets the best post. (5) TEA PARTY PATRIOT two-year-old colt makes his second career start and could show improvement in a weak field.
(5) MONTICELLO LANE four-year-old trotter faces much easier and could be the fastest in the race despite not having a victory on the year. (8) LAZURUS has a good record of winning and hitting the board but needs a smooth trip. (1) I'M A POP STAR well bred filly has more talent than what the program shows and should get a piece if she stays trotting.
(8) LIFE IS GOOD TODAY five-year-old has only one win on the year but takes a huge drop in class and should make it to the winners circle with any kind of trouble free trip. (1) NJ'S GO JOHNNY GO is the other dropper in the race and gets a great post to save some ground; threat. (6) ROCKILLES HEEL gelding went a big mile off a layoff and now makes his second start in a new barn.
In a field with very few contenders (4) OHTOBEAVET looks to be pacing much faster than most of the field and faces much easier competition. (1) READY is 0 for his career but draws the rail and should save ground before making a run at the top choice. (8) ODDS ON SERPENS well bred pacer has improved off the long layoff and finds a very weak field besides the top two choices; use underneath.
(5) CAMS SAHBRA mare took a bad step last out but was really sharp in her prior two; big chance. (10) REV ME UP six-year-old's program line doesn't look that great but the classy mare went a huge trip last out and is versatile. (9) MISS PAT WEISAR mare turned it around in a big way last race but would need to float for position for her best chance to hit the top spot.
(10) LUCKY CRUSADER gelding was a game winner last out and needed the start off a layoff. The 4-year-old is saddled with the worst post but might be ready for a big effort. (7) MONOPOLY MAN three-year-old has the most ability in the field but isn't the soundest all the time. (9) SAGE RUCK three-year-old has a red hot top driver and the gelding can fly out of the gate for position.
(8) IAM BONASERA if the well bred pacer is on his game there's nobody in the field that can pace with him. (1) MAJOR MONET drops down from the invite and will be setting up shop on the front end. The pacer might not settle for a pocket trip to anybody other than the top choice. (5) EXTRAVAGANT ART well bred 3-year-old faces really tough older opponents but might have the ability to step up.
(7) MYSTICAL VICTRESS mare faces her easiest field of the year and will be tough to beat; short price. (8) FOX VALLEY TOUCHE mare has the most gate speed in the field if she chooses to use it, if that's the case she is a threat to the top choice. (9) FOX VALLEY ABSOLUT mare will probably be smoking out of the gate and has been racing gamely.
(4) BEST MAN HANOVER should offer a much better price than usual and is just as good as every horse in the field. (6) FORT SILKY seven-year-old has had a career year but might be starting to tail off late in the season. (3) BREAKING THE LAW well bred gelding has been awesome since coming to the Midwest and is a huge threat with a repeat performance of his last two.
(4) PARTY HANGOVER is a risky pick because she only owns one win on the year and has been in a huge slump. The four-year-old made a break last out but raced much better the start prior. (2) HOLIDAY SHOPPER goes for a barn that has sent out some nice winners recently. (10) NO RESPECT mare is saddled with the worst post but will probably try and leave for position.
(4) LB'S ALAMERICANJOY three-year-old faces older and has been brutalized in his last two, but is the horse to beat with a smooth trip. (1) IN OVER MY HEAD well bred stallion has all the back class in the race and will probably win at a big price really soon. (6) MIDDLE AGED CRAZY talented 3-year-old has really blossomed recently and has a huge upside.
In a wide-open race (3) BELL VALLEY BILL is an enigma for bettors but will offer a big price and has the ability when he wants to pace. (7) AGOOD TIME TO ROCK impeccably bred 3-year-old faces older but does have speed and talent. (6) DABESTLEADEREVER just missed last out at a big price but has yet to show any consistency.
(7) TOBINS FORTUNE was used really hard last race and just needs a smooth trip for a piece. (5) ELKHORN DAMIEN has hit the top two spots in five straight; versatile. (1) TIZA MOJO set a new life mark in this class last out and gets the best post; fires late.
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