10/03/2014 1:14AM

Balmoral: Saturday 10/4 Analysis


Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (38 - 74 / $152.40): IN OVER MY HEAD (9th)

Spot Play: LITTLE MAN MORAND (2nd)


Race 1

(4) OLD MAN CLEARY well bred 2-year-old raced super last out needing the start over the track.  (8) HAKUNA MATATA gelding owns a good burst of speed and finds a softer bunch than his last race.  (9) ITS A BIG SECRET was sneaky sharp last out and could float off the gate for position.

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Race 2

In a really weak field (2) LITTLE MAN MORAND should have more to offer third start back off a layoff.   (6) DAVE'S ART four-year-old parlayed a ground saving trip into a maiden breaking score last out; threat.   (8) BLACKJACK RIVNDEL appeared to have a shot before coming up short.  The pacer could use some racing luck along with some fast early fractions.

Race 3

(3) LIZZABELLE doesn't win often but should beat this group with a trouble-free trip.  (6) ALWAYS TALKING just missed last out making it two straight showing big moves in both.  (1) BUBBALA gets the best post and has plenty of room to improve in a suspect field for a high percentage trainer.

Race 4

(6) SUPER SON OF SANDY had his win streak snapped last out but will be used much more aggressively.  (2) HOT ROD PETE was full of pace late last out and is heading in the right direction.  (1) FOX VALLEY REBEL the connections can't be left off the ticket from the rail.

Race 5

(5) UNCLE UGLY picks up the top driver in a wide open and evenly matched race.   (3) SLEZEBURGERNFRIES was good last out drawing off against a decent bunch; threat.  (1) PQ THREE could be ready for a big effort for a new trainer after a subpar year.

Race 6

(6) NATIVE LIGHTS gelding was running in again last out which cost him.  However the gelding has been on fire for hot connections.  (7) ACES AGAIN has big time ability when right and should offer a nice price.  (5) READY put in a career effort last out against a similar bunch; threat.

Race 7

(7) AL'S HAMMERED is a freak at his home track; fires late.  (5) FORT SILKY has been unable to pace with the top choice all season long but is getting sharp late in the year.  (6) IAM BONASERA had no business winning last out after a break.  The pacer is probably the only threat to the top choice if he minds his manners.

Race 8

(8) CELEBRITY HERCULES veteran trotter finds a very soft field than what he's used to.   (7) SURCLASSER has been trotting up a storm late and could be the only threat to the top choice with the right setup.  (9) FOX VALLEY VETO has had a tremendous year but is best used underneath against this bunch.

Race 9

(3) IN OVER MY HEAD gutted out a victory without being at his best.  If the pacer is feeling well this week its lights out.  (2) BIG DADDY WOO WOO has been racing better than his lines indicate against much tougher.  (8) MAJOR MONET owns some back class and could try blasting to the lead.

Race 10

(3) FIVEKNUCKLESHUFFLE gelding makes his second start after an eighteen-month layoff and should be sharper second start back.  (5) HOLY CHIP doesn't win often but can get the job done with a smooth trip.  (9) LIFE IS GOOD TODAY was better last out after just racing evenly for a few starts.

Race 11

(4) TIMEWELL makes his first start for new connections and has a good record at this level.  (9) STAR OF THE GAME gelding could be the sleeper in the race for connections that are excellent with new horses in the barn.  (6) MY BOY CAL has yet to win in twenty-three starts on the year but is due for a good effort any week.

Race 12

(3) ROCKIN RUMBLE raced huge last out being used very aggressively and finds a similar bunch.  (1) MEADOWBROOK SAMSON could have needed his last start and has shown big time ability; threat.  (2) PART TIME faces older more seasoned opponents but is a candidate to hit the ticket.

Race 13

(4) DOTS BIGBOY closed a ton of ground late last race and looks to be live at a price.  (5) NANCY'S SKYSCAPE gelding has been sharp in his last few starts and just needs a good setup for a big chance.  (7) PARKED ONDA STREET popped for new connections last out and could have gained some confidence.

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