10/17/2013 3:32PM

Balmoral: Saturday 10/19 Analysis


Race 10 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (50 - 107 / $180.80): UNLOCKED (2nd)

Spot Play: MADOFF (10th)


Race 1

(10) WESTERN DEAL gelding was a game winner in this class last out off slow fractions and a tough post.  The 10-year-old is versatile but could use a fast pace up front to improve his chances.  (5) TIZA MOJO was used very aggressively last out trying to make it four in a row.  The veteran pacer looks to be up close early on.  (2) ELKHORN DAMIEN came up flat last out but does have a red hot driver who is dominating.

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Race 2

(6) UNLOCKED two-year-old needed his last start off a six week layoff and should be much sharper. (4) TRAFFIC COP was razor sharp last out and could be the only threat to the top choice.  (5) FOX VALLEY CUPID has been racing way better than his lines show; use underneath.

Race 3

In a race with few contenders (10) COCOTIER drops back down to a level where he was a game winner wire to wire after being pressed very hard.  The key to the race could be if he stays away from an early battle.  (1) TAXMAN four-year-old beat a very average field last out but does draw the best post and was the top drivers' choice.  (4) I'M A POP STAR lightly raced filly hasn't been able to put it together yet but does have the best pedigree in the race and has shown some ability.

Race 4

(4) MOLLY GO LIGHTLY has been ultra-impressive for a while now and keeps a red hot top driver.  (7) FOX VALLEY AMANDA filly has been runner up in four straight starts and could use a fast pace up front along with some racing luck to upset.  (3) THESLEAZYPRINCESS Super Night Champ has been battling some lameness for her last few starts. If the filly is healthy she could be the only threat to the top choice.  Get a look at her in warm-ups or post parade for a better gauge.

Race 5

(8) LUCKY CRUSADER four-year-old pacer appeared to have no interest in his last two but does face much easier competition and will be tough to beat with a good effort.  (1) CASINO CAPTOR takes a significant drop in class, draws the rail, and could be tough to catch with a breather up front.  (3) MOSH PIT well bred gelding put in a nice first effort at the track and should improve some off that effort.

Race 6

(7) LUCKY JET despite the 4-year-old stallion's impressive qualifier at Maywood he needed his last start.  The nice-looking pacer finds a good spot to do some damage.  (4) POWER OF TARA N veteran pacer has a ton of back class and also needed his last start coming off a long layoff.  (1) UNCLE SMOOTHIE was flying late last out and looks to be one of the sharper horses in the race.

Race 7

In an extremely tough race to handicap that is evenly matched (4) FOUR STARZZZ Z was really good in his last effort and was the red hot drivers' top choice.  (8) OLD MAN RIVER has also been racing well in his last two efforts and should offer a nice price.  (2) ST DAVID HANOVER appears to be in tough but should a speed duel take place early he could be a player late.

Race 8

(2) DOC'S HOPE mare has made the most money on the year by far and has been facing much stiffer competition in Canada.  The 4-year-old looks to be a stone cold closer and will be charging hard late.  (6) FOX VALLEY TOUCHE mare has blazing gate speed, but honestly I wonder why the connections don't use it. The classy pacer has been babied for months if she fires early she is the main danger to the top choice if not she's probably a toss.  (8) JUST BY DESIGN mare has had a good year and has been hitting the board consistently.

Race 9

(7) FORT SILKY hasn't quite had his usual big late kick late that he had earlier in the year.  The 7-year-old might try from off the pace again with all the speed in the race.  (8) BREAKING THE LAW has been wicked fast since coming to the Midwest and could benefit from fast fraction up front; fires late.  (6) NJ'S BIG DEAL four-year-old stallion has the talent and ability to hit the board; fires early.

Race 10

(5) MADOFF has just as much ability as anyone else in the race and was really good last out.  The stallion probably needed the start and might try and go down the road.  (3) RICHESS EMPEROR doesn't win very often but does fit the class really well. (6) MATT THE BRUISER very disappointing effort as the favorite last out but had been racing gamely prior.

Race 11

In a really wide open race (2) KATE THE GREAT can really pace up a storm late in the right scenario.  (3) DP ANGEL three-year-old had no business winning last week but the top driver is on fire.  (5) TUNE IN was a four claimer a few weeks ago, has been putting in some nice efforts, and finds a suspect field.

Race 12

(8) DUNE IN RED filly has the chance to really be a nice older horse and makes her first start in a new barn; threat.  (7) TIA MARIA HANOVER well bred mare closed a lot of ground late and hadn't raced for almost a month.  (2) EXCELERATED SPEED filly could excel on the big track and has been racing better than her lines show.

Race 13

(9) BEST MAN HANOVER hasn't been on his game lately but should destroy this field with any kind of effort; short price.  (6) DONT WORRY B HAPPY is just now rounding into racing shape and might be the only threat to the top choice if there was one.  (7) LONG TERM just raced evenly last out but was facing a tough bunch.  The 3-year-old faces older but could round out the ticket at a big price.


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