12/02/2015 2:26PM

Balmoral: Friday 12/4 Analysis

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Race 4 - $3,853 Pick Five Carryover

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s  Pick Five Ticket:

5,6 / 5 / 3,4,5 / 3,4,8,9,10 / 6,7 = $30

 

Best Bet (51 - 84 / $178.60): HTH LYNN ROY (3rd)

Spot Play: LOCKPORT LEGEND (8th)

Race 1

(8) YES WE DID takes a big drop down in for a tag and should offer value.  (9) MOON BAY DANCER is the horse to beat at this level; short price.  (7) BETTOR'S BABE has been very competitive against similar but is best used underneath.

Race 2

(9) LOLA GRAM filly owns decent closing ability in a weak and inconsistent field.  (7) SHOE SHOW lagged the gate last week before making up good ground the last half of the mile; threat.  (10) NASHVILLE NASTY just beat this bunch last week but is stuck with a very tough post.

Race 3

(3) HTH LYN ROY the pacer's line is deceiving as he was really charging hard late last out; big chance.  (2) AJ'S PRINCE gets sent out for a low percentage pilot but did race well last week.  (6) MACHO BURBON pacer is probably the fastest in the field if he minds his manners.

Race 4

(6) GOSSIP MODEL lightly raced filly was roughed up last week from the ten hole.  If the 3-year-old stays covered up most of the mile she's a huge threat.  (5) GIRLS GIRLS GIRLS mare makes her third start back off a short layoff and appears to be primed for a better effort.  (10) FRONTIER SARAH is 1 for 24 lifetime but is more than capable of hitting the ticket underneath.

Race 5

(5) TAYLOR TOT filly was an easy winner in her debut and should only get better with a start under her belt.  (4) PRINCESS GIRL was no match for the top choice last start but owns wins at this level.  (9) MAPLE GROVE JOE never got into the mile last week but is capable with a good setup.

Race 6

(5) SMOKE RINGS pacer was shot out of a cannon when they hit the top of the stretch last week.  If the gelding races like that again its lights out.  (4) PILLAGE AND BURN is one of the faster horses in the race especially with a smooth trip; threat.  (3) MR PICKPOCKET is the sleeper in the race making his third start back off a long layoff.

Race 7

(3) ODDS ON DOMINICA has been off over a month but a good effort puts her close.  (9) HOOSIER'S FANTASY was the driver's choice of five and is versatile.  (8) BABYSHOEBUYER will look to make it three straight at this level.

Race 8

(7) LOCKPORT LEGEND takes a huge dropdown in for a tag against significantly weaker.  The pacer was tough to hold in a hole last week and will likely be headed for the front early.  (6) IF I DIDN'T DREAM mare showed two weeks ago was no fluke with a really nice victory last week.  The 4-year-old probably has more to offer.  (3) BB ROCKETTE has been knocking on the door in her last few but might have missed her opportunity for a win; use underneath.

Race 9

In a wide open and evenly matched race, (2) NORTHERN DALI has been racing gamely and just needs to be put into the race for a chance.  (1) PARTY HANGOVER mare elected to sit in last week costing herself a shot at winning.  The 6-year-old gets the best post and just needs a trouble-free trip; driver's choice.  (10) OUR MISS LILY was the driver's choice and will likely be used aggressively.

Race 10

(5) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL closed big ground last out off dull cover.  The pacer bumps up in class but will be tough to keep off the ticket with a similar effort.  (1) OFFICIALLY YOURS was a game winner last week at this level; threat.  (3) JACKSON BERLOW rarely wins but has been knocking on the door; command a price.

Race 11

(8) FOX VALLEY GYPSY has been off a few months but comes into the race off an impressive qualifier.  (9) TOGETHERFOREVER pacing mare is capable of better and will probably turn it around one of these weeks at a price.  (4) KIMBERLY R needed her last two starts off a scratch; use underneath.

Race 12

(9) SISTER'S KEEPER mare had a nightmare trip last week and raced deceptively well.  (2) AHLBBACK YANKEE is probably the horse to beat but will offer another low price off a dull effort.  (1) WINDY CITY DIANE gets good post relief and should be much closer turning for home.

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