09/28/2001 11:00PM

Arlington Park analysis for 9/30

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BEST BET: SNOW LANDING (6TH RACE)

First Race

1.ERICA'S HONEY 2. TUGY 3. DANZIG MATILDA

ERICA'S HONEY drops down to what appears to be her lowest class level; sprinted for $13k at CBY last out, but going short is not really her game; that race might have sharpened her speed, however, and she can stay close to what should be a slow pace. TUGY could be at a real disadvantage if the pace is indeed slow; she comes from way out of it and needs horses in front of her to slow down; solid form, however, and claimed in last; step up to this $7.5k from $5k isn't much. DANZIG MATILDA won last out at this level in a slow time.

Second Race

1.PLENTY OF STARS 2. PEERING OVER 3. ADARA

After 15 starts, PLENTY OF STARS still is eligible for an N3L race; you could say she's due for a win, or that she's win-shy; whatever, her form's good right now, and unlike her last out, she's drawn outside all the other speed; fast blowout since last; might fall into win here with good pressing trip. PEERING OVER drops down from $14k, but she hasn't won yet this year and may just be dropping into a good spot; dueled on pace from rail post in last; won for this tag here last year. ADARA dropped down to this level from $10k claiming in last and improved to finish third.

Third Race

1.AWESOME ALEC 2. MR. AUSTIN HIGH 3. HECANDO

AWESOME ALEC an Illinois-bred by a national sire, Unbridled's Song, who's off to a promising start at stud; barn top-notch with debuting Illinois-bred 2yos, and this one was second-fastest among 34 five furlong works here Sept. 25. MR. AUSTIN HIGH took much betting action in debut, but settled for third after a trouble trip; off three months, but solid string of 5fs works. HECANDO, uncoupled entry-mate with top pick, had trouble at the start of debut; capable of better.

Fourth Race

1.GAME BIRD 2. AIR ONE 3. RIGHT REVVED

GAME BIRD popped up with big race at 14-1 when dropping to this class level in most recent; that was after two months rest, and gelding has worked well since race; Vanier barn has come to life in last few weeks. AIR ONE second in a 2X allowance two back, then had no chance last out at same level when dueling on suicide pace; drop into claiming makes him tough, especially on a clear lead. RIGHT REVVED in exacta nearly half of his 60 career starts; 7yo still capable at this class level.

Fifth Race

1.BUSTER BAILEY 2. HEAD IN 3. UNPREDICTABLE B

BUSTER BAILEY debuted here Aug. 30 in a dirt sprint; one, he had trouble at the start; two, he bled; three, he may have been prepping for this turf route in any case; gelding bred top and bottom for the lawn; three works since debut. HEAD IN didn't run well on dirt last out, had trouble on turf two back, and probably needed start three back; all of which makes him eligible for an improved effort here. UNPREDICTABLE B second and third in last two turf starts at this class level.

Sixth Race

1.SNOW LANDING 2. MAYOR FRAZE 3. PAT A STAKE

SNOW LANDING apparently didn't handle a muddy track in last out; favored at 7-5, he faded steadily the last half-mile, the line of a horse that didn't like the track; was favored last time because of easy win at 1X level two back and good second to Freeway Ticket two back; should bounce back on dry surface. MAYOR FRAZE was close to a fast pace in mile try last time out before fading, but not badly, to fifth; second in previous dirt try at this level and second in his lone try at this trip. PAT A STAKE regressed last time out but has hit the board several times at this class level.

Seventh Race

1.BRITTSKER 2. CINDY'S HOBBY 3. SANDY'S WAY

BRITTSKER, claimed by good barn for $65k in last out, is in peak form, and has gotten a nice break since blowout win last time out; worked twice for new barn, and though there's other speed here, she might out-quick them for the lead; has won eight of 19 at this distance. CINDY'S HOBBY passed late when favored in race of similar class last time out; cut back to six furlongs might help; logical contender must work out trip from rail. SANDY'S WAY regressed in last when finishing sixth, but was fairly sharp in two prior starts; chance to rebound.

Eighth Race

1.MEADOWMINER 2. WINNIE'S POOH BEAR 3. BET ON JOE

MEADOWMINER comes off a long break, but barn can get one ready on works alone, and colt has worked very well on a couple occasions, including bullet half-mile gate work on Sept. 12; ran well fresh last year, has yet to lose, and is well drawn outside the other speed in a short field. WINNIE'S POOH BEAR has never missed exacta in six career starts, and nearly is unbeaten in Chicago; missed by a neck here in June when facing similar company. BET ON JOE has gotten hot in Sept. but comes off two hard races this month.

Ninth Race

1.MAJOR OMANSKY 2. CASIMIR 3. LONELY PLACE

If he's willing to rate just a little, MAJOR OMANSKY could get a perfect suck-along trip right behind two need-the-lead types, R. LITTLE REDHEAD and EURODEED; won 3X allowance by a nose, and $35k claiming seems like a good level for him, especially considering he's an Illinois-bred and runs for an enhanced purse. CASIMIR comes off dirt race for $50k claiming; drops in class and switches back to preferred surface; fairly strong fit here. LONELY PLACE drops way down in class after running poorly in last two.