09/27/2001 11:00PM

Arlington Park analysis for 9/29

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BEST BET: HOLY KITTEN (2ND RACE)

First Race

1.SAVANAHA 2. LUV THAT SECURITY 3. ALL IS ROSEY

SAVANAHA class-dropped into 6-5 favoritism in $10k claimer last out, but got a pressured inside trip on dead-rail track and checked home fourth, though beaten only five lengths; horses moving outside after solid dead-rail efforts on several biased tracks starting Sept. 2 have offered good opportunities the last week or so; barn that claimed her having excellent meet, and been good first off claim. LUV THAT SECURITY shows trouble line from last out, a two-turn race; last one-turn try at this level resulted in easy win. ALL IS ROSEY an X factor; overmatched in 2X allowance last time, and hard to get a handle on Arapahoe form; from good barn, however.

Second Race

1.HOLY KITTEN 2. FIT PERFORMER 3. GREY FORMAL

HOLY KITTEN part of exacta in last five starts, including two at this meet; figured to need start two back when second to filly who ran a big race; and winner of last is a very talented filly; none like that in here, and she might be set for peak effort, too. FIT PERFORMER has gotten very, very good; blazing work after $14k claim two back was followed up by good second last out in a quickly run race at this 1X allowance level. GREY FORMAL, who showed improved early speed in last two, got clear early in most recent and never looked back, winning so-so maiden race by more than four; tougher spot this time.

Third Race

1.CHESS GAME 2. MUTED 3. GRANITE PEAK

CHESS GAME is an Illinois-bred half-brother to Smilin Slew (who runs later on this card); you can see why trainer Spanky Broussard is starting him off in open company ?colt has been lighting up the worktab; recent drills most impressive, and catches field lacking standouts. MUTED caught muddy tracks in last two and dueled on the lead from post 1three starts back; lots of excuses, but also lots of losses at short odds. GRANITE PEAK from high-percentage Lohmeier stable, and shows solid works here; might not have cared for turf in debut and bled without Lasix when on dirt last time; might show more at a big price.

Fourth Race

1.SALTWORKS 2. ONLY YOU 3. PARTING GUEST

Like the fact that SALTWORKS, claimed two back for $50k, comes back from two-month break still in search of 3X allowance win, rather than in claiming company; coming back 17 days after claim, he finished clear second behind standout winner who ran a very fast time; light worktab, but perhaps that's good. ONLY YOU ran a career best race last time out to beat stakes-caliber Dream Run by two lengths, though that one was coming off a long layoff and didn't run all that well in subsequent G2 sprint stakes at Turfway; got an ideal trip last time, though similar run possible here as he moves up to the next level. PARTING GUEST hooked some good horses at FG this winter; back from long layoff, but working very well at CD, including bullet half-mile on 9/25.

Fifth Race

1.MAURICIENNE 2. MCKINNEY 3. JUNGLE SUN

MAURICIENNE has a poor win mark and has not won this year but her form improved significantly when blinkers were added three back; has hooked some very nice fillies in those three starts, and nothing of that sort pops up here; fits well if willing. MCKINNEY part of an Asmussen-trained entry, and perhaps in this hoping for dirt; as wet as the course is now, it wouldn't take much rain for that; would fit well on main track. JUNGLE SUN contested pace on yielding course in last before fading; had every right to need a race when coming back from year layoff.

Sixth Race

1.HAWK N THE SHEIKH 2. KERRY BLUE 3. AVALON TRICK

HAWK N THE SHEIKH is bred for turf, but hasn't shown quite as much lick in two grass starts, though perhaps its routes, not the lawn, that she's not fond of; still, last out was solid enough, and she won a 3X allowance going away two back; $50k claiming seems a good level for her, seven furlongs a good trip. KERRY BLUE caught standout winner in PRM Oaks when last seen in early July, but won two prior in blowouts; those were at two turns, however, and she wasn't quite as dominant sprinting; still fits if ready after layoff. Churchill-based trainer Blackie Huffman has started three horses at this meet, and two have won; so it pays to take note of AVALON TRICK's fast five-furlong workout on Sept. 16.

Seventh Race

1.LANGSTON 2. KRIS'S SLEIGH 3. GALIC BOY

LANGSTON has turned out to be a good high-end claim, though it took nearly nine months for him to start for these connections; he's not run a bad race all summer, and just missed in solid $100k stakes last out; came from way off the pace that day, but has tactical speed to stay closer to leader. And that should be KRIS'S SLEIGH, who was a dead send from outside post in speed-filled mile stakes last time out; did well to lose by less than four lengths that day after setting suicidal fractions; much less pace in this field, but he's only 1-7 wins at 8.5 furlongs. GALIC BOY had no apparent excuse when fifth in same stakes top two picks ran in last time out.

Eighth Race

1.DUBAI SQUIRE 2. NO TROUBLE 3. LUNAR BOUNTY

In July, never would have imagined picking DUBAI SQUIRE in this track's premier 2yo race; colt showed little at first, but stretch to a mile helped him win his maiden, and he looked infinitely more sharp when easily winning allowance race last out; looked like a plodder at first, but much better speed last time, as he was right on a 45.47 second half-mile before drawing away; that could mean good trip here. NO TROUBLE was one of the more impressive maiden winners of the meet, drawing away by four in debut; that was a sprint, but he might turn out to be better going long; caught slop in last when beaten by Dubai Squire ? perhaps he didn't care for it; worked well since; threat at a price. LUNAR BOUNTY looks like the pace-setter from post 1; loomed a winner in Spectacular Bid before settling for second; hard to say what kind of stamina little-know sire will impart to offspring, but he looks like a danger if clearing field.

Ninth Race

1.NO FAST MOVES 2. BIG HUBIE 3. STERNA

NO FAST MOVES was rained out of a start last week, worked instead, now comes back in similar company; off since late June, but fits here if ready; won maiden two back over Slough Creek, who won twice in allowance company this meet; pace to chase for closer. BIG HUBIE claimed two back for this tag ran even third last time out on dirt; proven he fits this level and is better on turf; logical contender for top barn. STERNA 3-0-0-0 on grass, but has faced better than this in two turf starts this summer while running decently both times.