Updated on 09/15/2011 1:10PM

Arlington Park analysis for 10/06

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BEST BET: ANSTAR (5th race)

First Race

1. NAZOS PARK 2. NOBLE LEADER 3. MANNERED

There are two speed horses in this field, so if one of them scratches or fails to run early, the race shape changes dramatically; but if they hook up, a closer like NAZOS PARK is likely to take advantage; hasn't been out since Aug. 11, but was claimed on that day and comes back at the same class level, $14k, a good sign; third in a quickly run one-turn mile last time where the two speeds never came back; two turns better for him. NOBLE LEADER claimed for $10k in last and moves up in class; form been sharp since throwing in dud at HAW this spring; closing threat. MANNERED, who has won eight times at this distance, probably can't afford a speed duel with Ain't No Yank, but at least has drawn outside his pace rival.

Second Race

1. LADY DEALER 2. KAT CAN DANCE 3. LEFFY'S LAUNCH

LADY DEALER is a 13-race maiden, but the recent equipment change ? blinkers off last time ? may take precedence over her losing streak; ran best race of career last time to miss by a neck at this class level; closer drew the same post as last time, and there's pace to set up her kick. KAT CAN DANCE should be part of the pace and drops down to lowest class level; decent front-end try for $40k claiming last time with first blinkers. LEFF'S LAUNCH debuted with good works and showed speed first time out; eligible to improve in second start.

Third Race

1. CHANDI TARA 2. MISS CHEVIOUS 3. LET'S PRETEND

CHANDI TARA is 2-0-0-0 on off tracks and ran a poor race last time out in the slop ? let's assume she doesn't handle a wet track; on dry, she won maiden two back in Illinois-bred MSW company; fits at this level on right surface. MISS CHEVIOUS one of the few in here to show much recent form at all; she dropped down to this level two back and finished closing third last time out. LET'S PRETEND makes her first start at the lowest weakest conditioned claiming-level at this track.

Fourth Race

1. ON THE HOP 2. GERRI'S AUTO BEE 3. SUMMERHILL GAL

Making her first start in six weeks and only third of the year, ON THE HOP made a bold bid for the lead on the turn, led at the stretch call, but was nailed on the wire; perhaps she moved a bit early; at least showed she fits well at this $50k claiming level; and might be set for peak effort. GERRI'S AUTO BEE comes out of stakes try at CBY; she's run her best on a clear lead and might be the controlling speed in this spot; figures to fit well for $50k claiming; also should handle a move to the main track if it rains. SUMMERHILL GAL ran down the top pick here two back and finished a good third last out at Kentucky Downs.

Fifth Race

1. ANSTAR 2. FUTURE TRICK 3. COMBO NATION

ANSTAR has held his form all summer, and has hit the board in all three tries at this 3X allowance condition; fact he hasn't won yet has everything to do with the competition he's hooked; for instance Generous Rosi, who beat him two back, starts this weekend in a Grade 1; and two in front of him last time are also nice horses; no one like that in here; cut back to a mile doesn't hurt, either. FUTURE TRICK figured to need his last start coming off a five-month layoff; he didn't run badly, either, and should move forward off the race; barn won here Thurs. with 9-1 Harlan Ash. COMBO NATION will benefit from cutting back to a one-turn mile this time out.

Sixth Race

1. ZAMEK 2. LORD LIVERMORE 3. BLACK RAINBOW

ZAMEK made lead at stretch call then tired in last ? perhaps he did not stay the 12 furlongs of that grass race; turn back to mile-and-an-eighth here should suit him; proven competitive at the 1X allowance level, and basically has only a couple maiden winners to beat here. LORD LIVERMORE is one of those; rallies well in final furlong to graduate last time; probably handles dirt if this race comes off turf. BLACK RAINBOW switches circuits for a good turf barn; has run decently in all three grass tries.

Seventh Race

1. SIREN SONG 2. THE LORD'S TUNE 3. ASHEVILLE

SIREN SONG has run decently at route distances, and even won by six going a mile two back; but guess is she might be even better at this 6.5fs trip; last try at distance produced maiden win at Churchill; off a couple months, but Lundy barn excels with such cases; speed to track in here. THE LORD'S TUNE has won five straight and has beaten males in three starter-allowance races here; aggressively spotted in 2X allowance, and especially dangerous if loose; 3-0-2-1 at this trip. ASHEVILLE disappointed as a heavy favorite in last; probably capable of better.

Eighth Race

1. HUMBLE CLERK 2. TASTE THE PASSION 3. ASHER

HUMBLE CLERK came off a six-week break to just miss running down classy Frankly My Dear in muddy overnight handicap at this trip last time out; got good at this time last year when she won the Indiana Oaks, and though yet to win at nine furlongs, seems to stay the trip; should have pace to chase here if both ASHER and MALTESE SUPERB do indeed start; barn's "A" rider takes the mount. TASTE THE PASSION had an amazingly fast work here this week, about 10 lengths faster than the next-best 5fs move of the day; race rider Lovato reportedly up for the breeze; makes only second start in Lundy barn; should get nine furlongs. ASHER's last is probably a throwout and she's won at the trip; very dangerous if she gets loose on the lead.

Ninth Race

1. FLAMIN' JOLIE 2. MOONDUST 3. COPPER KNOB

FLAMIN' JOLIE came off an 11-month break to finish a clear second last time out; has every right to move forward off that race, though suppose "bounce" is a possibility; all three turf starts have been solid; due to graduate. MOONDUST was listed as Lasix on the overnight, but at press time was supposed to run without it; that's a key issue, since her running line from last out makes it look like she bled; debut second at Ellis came behind a promising col. COPPER KNOB made a big move forward in turf try last out despite bleeding in the race.

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