Updated on 09/15/2011 1:09PM

Arlington Park analysis for 10/05

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Best Bet: Sabathani (6th Race)

First Race

1.BLUE MOON SHINING 2. DISCHIPHER 3. ROUX

BLUE MOON SHINING debuts at a low class level, but Catalano barn typically spots horses just about where they fit, and keep in mind that barn's contending for training title ? they want to win races; this colt shows a pair of solid recent works for debut. DISCHIPHER drops hard in class, falling from three $40k-$50k maiden claiming tries all the way down to $10k; that's a big drop, especially considering none of his starts have been disasters; stumbled at start of last, and figures to get good pace-pressing trip from outside post. ROUX backed up in last two after making lead; drops down to his lowest class level.

Second Race

1.EAGLE REIGNS 2. FRIENDLY COP 3. MIDNIGHT MINER

EAGLE REIGNS takes somewhat negative drop, having been claimed for $10k when last seen on Aug. 29; and at press time, only showed one slow half-mile work since then, too; still, 4yo has never been in this cheap, and his try for $10k wasn't bad; little to beat here, and barn often drops to win. FRIENDLY COP appears to fit well in this spot; dropping to this class level last time, he made a big, and perhaps premature, middle move before flattening out to finish a close fourth; bug 6yo has won only once in his last 30 starts over two calendar years. MIDNIGHT MINER, off since mid-June, drops in class and shows a good recent 5fs work; might need more ground.

Third Race

1.CASHIER'S WAGER 2. REPLAY 3. GLORIFY

CASHIER'S WAGER debuted in maiden allowance company, finishing sixth of 11 on a sloppy track; not the highest end pedigree (though it is win-early), so don't mind seeing her in for $50k claiming in second start; steady work pattern through Sept. REPLAY debuts for Churchill-based Carl Bowman barn showing fast works and apparently qualifying for Lasix in her debut; Bowman's gone 9-4-3-1 at this meet, so don't take lightly. GLORIFY debuts with solid works for Ronny Werner barn, excellent with first-timers and 2yos.

Fourth Race

1.CAST CALL 2. TURNER FLATS 3. TUCUMAN

CAST CALL shows signs in last two of coming into form, and though beaten nine lengths in last, he ran a decent race, and winner came back to win for $10k on Wednesday; dicey call, however, considering his win mark and the far outside post. TURNER FLATS fits well on recent form, but only win in last 10 starts came going two turns for $4k at HAW this spring; second at short odds in last two $5k claimers. TUCUMAN has been facing better horses in recent starter allowance tries.

Fifth Race

1.AFLEET BOY 2. ATHENS ON MY MIND 3. FRANKIES OYSTER

AFLEET BOY's sire is Stack, a son of Nijinsky II, so colt figures to have stamina; indeed, he's run decently in all his route starts, though maiden win came sprinting; figures to stay the nine furlongs well enough, and might get ideal trip just outside of ATHENS ON MY MIND. The latter comes off a four-month layoff and was in top form when he went to the sidelines; didn't fire fresh after last layoff, but six-furlong work on Sept. 6 was encouraging. FRANKIES OYSTER comes off a third-place finish at this class level; shouldn't mind stretch to nine furlongs.

Sixth Race

1.SABATHANI 2. COZY 3. JAMIE'S COCO POP

SABATHANI been knocking at the door in 3X turf allowances like this one; surely needed race three back, had trouble two back when missing by a nose, and caught behind slow pace last time out when facing a field better than this one; best chance this summer to clear the condition. COZY actually rated off the pace a little last time, a change from typical front-running tactics; there's probably more speed here than in last couple, and she might need to relax again for her best chance. JAMIE'S COCO POP, off since early August, fits decently here, but has been hanging around this allowance level for some time now.

Seventh Race

1.CHINKAPIN 2. MANITOWISH 3. CROWNS RUNNER

CHINKAPIN came off a two-month break on Sept. 9 to make his first start since being claimed for $50k; ran a big race that day, closing good ground in the stretch to finish a clear second behind speed winner who was on top of his game; drops to $35k and should move up from last. MANITOWISH finished a place behind the top pick in his last race and drops down a level in class; those his first two claiming starts, both of which came on sloppy tracks; capable of more on dry track. CROWNS RUNNER didn't handle turf in last, but was going strong before that race; won for this tag earlier in meet.

Eighth Race

1.MINERS GAMBLE 2. DISTINCTIVE MR. B 3. TIC N TIN

MINERS GAMBLE must overcome post 12 (pending scratches), which could lead to wide run around turn in this short turf sprint; this is gelding's specialty, however ? he's 3-for-3 going short on turf; and comes off a good try in tough dirt optional claimer here in most recent out. DISTINCTIVE MR. B is at his best sprinting on this turf course; set a track record in most recent; comes back off peak effort on fairly short rest, however, and there's other speed to keep him honest on lead. Sharp TIC N TIN might need this race to come off turf in order to contend; he's 2-0-0-0 on grass.

Ninth Race

1.BOLD PILOT 2. TABLE STAKES 3. SIMPLY NATE

BOLD PILOT turned back to sprint in most recent and ran well ? unfortunately caught winner who set track record in big win; tough trip two back in turf route try, and gelding battled on gamely in stretch to be second vs. similar; set up for win here. TABLE STAKEA is probably better on turf than dirt, but hasn't been on grass since last Fall; form not bad right now and surface switch might move him up. SIMPLY NATE drops down in class for dangerous turf connections.

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