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With three horses supplemented to the race on Thursday and another horse removed from the race, Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe seems set to go with a field of 18, barring withdrawals at the final declaration stage on Friday morning.
Supplemented to the race were Saonois, who won the French Derby and Prix Niel in his last two starts; Bayrir, winner of the Secretariat at Arlington and second in the Niel; and the John Gosden-trained 3-year-old filly Great Heavens. Great Heavens, whose current four-race win streak was capped by a three-length score in the Group 1 Irish Oaks, is a full sister to Nathaniel, whose Arc plans were derailed by a minor illness this week. Taken out of Arc consideration was Reliable Man, with the France-based colt rerouted to the Canadian International at Woodbine on Oct. 14.
LIVE FROM LONGCHAMP: Watch full Saturday card | Watch full Sunday card
Ante-post betting markets, meanwhile, shifted on Thursday, with 3-year-old Camelot, announced as a definite Arc starter only on Wednesday, taking over favoritism at many betting houses from the Japanese 4-year-old Orfevre. Orfevre has long had the Arc as his major seasonal goal, and won his prep race for the main event in the Prix Foy last month at Longchamp. Nevertheless, the presence of Europe’s top 3-year-old, Camelot, and his partnership with popular rider Frankie Dettori has shifted the Arc betting.
Also receiving considerable betting play late this week is Sea Moon, who, it was determined Thursday, will have regular rider Ryan Moore as his pilot on Sunday. Moore has been out with an injury but was set to return to action Friday in England.
The Michael Stoute-trained Sea Moon also could benefit from course conditions, which are entirely different than in 2011, when Paris was hot and very dry, and Danedream won the Arc in course record time. The weather this October has been much wetter, with Longchamp’s clerk of the course saying Thursday that the going for Sunday’s races would be no better than soft, and, with more rain, could become very soft.
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For the record, the late money that Marcus was talking about was not from me as I haven't place a single dime on the race.
Kidding aside, I have always like Sea Moon in this race even when Snow Fairy, Danedream and Nathaniel were still being pointed to this race. He's sitting on a big time surprise performance of his lifetime (I think). He's my dark horse lookiing to be a party parade spoiler.
Before the bad news, I was going to make the exacta play with Nathaniel over Sea Moon, and now without Nathaniel I will play exacta Sea Moon over Camelot. Hopefully Sea Moon will run a race of a lifetime as I think he's capable of doing so in this race.
As for Camelot, I will withhold my money from him until he regains his old self and shows me there's nothing wrong with him. He definitely has a world of talent, but his last race is still a mystery and he'll have to show me something other than his last race before I jump on his bandwagon. He has a chance to show the world what he's made of as the group he's facing is much tougher than the group he'd faced in the past.
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Best Bets
FLAMBOYANCE brings class appeal to the table as one who has spent her career facing steeper. She also has reason to move forward in this, her second start since January. WINE ME UP BABY was third against steeper last out and for the effort earned what ranks as this field's best last-race Beyer Figure. VALERIA figures to be a late threat on the cutback from six panels to five and a half furlongs.
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