09/19/2016 12:49PM

Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong Selections for Wednesday, September 21, 2016

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HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS
(Wednesday September 21, 2016)

RACE 1: #2 Po Ching Treasure, #3 Smart Union, #8 Blazing Pass, #1 Gold Dragon
RACE 2: #8 Win Chance, #4 Glory Sunshine, #1 Island Flyer, #3 Kerkeni
RACE 3: #11 St Yazin, #3 Victory Marvel, #5 Cour Valant, #8 Everest
RACE 4: #12 Mr Kool, #9 Super Sweet Orange, #1 Good Choice, #8 Red Peony
RACE 5: #3 Arm Runda, #5 Wonderful Journey, #6 Haymaker, #10 Our Honour
RACE 6: #2 Super Turbo, #10 Thor The Greatest, #12 I'm A Witness, #11 Harbour Nova
RACE 7: #2 Blaze Stamina, #3 Happy Bao Bei, #5 Apache Spirit, #4 Great Charm
RACE 8: #12 Super Fluke, #7 Inventor, #6 Beauty Kingdom, #8 Little Island

RACE 1: TIU KENG LENG HANDICAP

#2 Po Ching Treasure lost all form at the end of last season but his previous statistics over this course and distance were very good and he looks a potential leader here. He has only run in Class 4 twice before for two seconds and the switch to senior rider Brett Prebble is a major plus. #3 Smart Union is drawn to get the right run here and was extremely honest in similar races last year. #8 Blazing Pass ran an OK race at his only attempt at Happy Valley and his form has been better since then. He should get the perfect trail. #1 Gold Dragon ran well enough first-up to suggest he's a place chance here.

RACE 2: YAU TONG HANDICAP

At big odds, keep an eye on #8 Win Chance. He is nearing a ratings bottom, having won off a similar mark in April last year, and he ran a strong race at his first run last season too. #4 Glory Sunshine stuck on well first-up at Sha Tin and the step up to 1800m here looks timely. #1 Island Flyer is a typical Class 5 horse who doesn't win out of turn but has been good recently, relishes this trip and is drawn to get a good run. Next best #3 Kerkeni, who has talent but also has plenty of problems that have prevented him from finding the winners' circle - he should have won a long time ago.

RACE 3: LAM TIN HANDICAP

#11 St Yazin is not a prolific winner, having only saluted twice in 55 starts and not since November 2014, but this might be the race for him. He is more effective over the shorter 1000m than the trip here, 1200m, but with the inside draw, Matthew Chadwick can save ground and hope that the field slingshots off the bend into the straight, as can happen when the rail is out. #3 Victory Marvel won like a horse going places first-up. He does have to shoulder 132 pounds here but a repeat of his fresh effort will see him very hard to beat. #5 Cour Valant will be sweeping home late and did look like he was ready to break through at the end of last season. A line needs to be put through his last run too, when nothing went right. Keep an eye on #8 Everest, only having his third start but looking like he has some hint of ability.

RACE 4: NGAU TAU KOK HANDICAP

#12 Mr Kool was one-paced first-up before finding the line late for fourth over 1200m. The step up to 1650m suits and he looks to get a good run here. #9 Super Sweet Orange is at a mark where he will be breaking through soon and his fresh run at Sha Tin was full of promise, particularly with the step up in trip now - his best run last season came over this course and distance. #1 Good Choice has his first run for new trainer Dennis Yip here after three seasons with Sean Woods. He looks incredibly well rated now if Yip can unlock the key to him quickly. #8 Red Peony needs to prove his win was no fluke, but he is drawn to have every possible favour in the run.

RACE 5: LAM TIN HANDICAP

Reigning champion trainer John Size has had a very quiet start to the season, as is his normal style, but he can get off the mark this term with #3 Arm Runda. One of last season's griffins, he finished fourth last time out to jaw-dropping galloper Pakistan Star, and had finished in the placings in four runs before that. He looks well-rated on 58 and with the good draw, should get every chance to break through. #5 Wonderful Journey found form on opening day to finish third after leading, and with another bad draw here, he should find the front again and prove the one to run down. #6 Haymaker and #10 Our Honour both have good draws and should get ideal trips here.

RACE 6: CHA KWO LING HANDICAP

#2 Super Turbo was more impressive than the neck margin suggests at just his second run in Hong Kong last season. He has a superb turn of foot and looks headed for Class 2 in no time at all. #10 Thor The Greatest is one of the fastest horses in Hong Kong with an abundance of early speed. His weapon is that he gets his rivals off the bit and chasing a long way out, and that could be important here in a race where most of these lack race fitness. #12 I'm A Witness did a good job to hang onto third first-up after leading and looks ready to break through, particularly with a light weight, while #11 Harbour Nova should be improved heading into his second season and found the line nicely at his last couple.

RACE 7: CHA KWO LING HANDICAP

The question is, how many points does #2 Blaze Stamina have in hand? His first preparation was very solid and he looks the type that can make it into Class 2 this season. From his work, it looks like he has strengthened up, although he is carrying some condition. Still, he looks the one to be with here. #3 Happy Bao Bei has a run underneath him and is at a mark in the ratings where he will be winning very soon. He has a more favourable draw here, too. Caspar Fownes and Zac Purton finally found the secret to quirky #5 Apache Spirit last preparation, winning his last two starts, and if he gets a race run to suit again, he will be right there. Next best is #4 Great Charm, not the most genuine of horses but he seems to be becoming more race savvy as of late.

RACE 8: KWUN TONG HANDICAP

#12 Super Fluke has had his hoof on the till for a fair while and his final two runs of last season over the Happy Valley 1650m were very strong. He was impressive in a recent trial at Sha Tin and should get the perfect trip here. #7 Inventor caught the eye with two dominant late season wins over this course and distance. He looks to have more to give, too. #6 Beauty Kingdom is remarkably consistent and will have come on for a third at Sha Tin on opening day. #8 Little Island should get the ideal trail from the inside gate and looked on the verge of finding form at the end of last season.