10/03/2016 11:15AM

Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Wednesday, October 5, 2016


(Wednesday October 5, 2016)

RACE 1: #11 Sweet Bean, #7 Glamorous Ryder, #10 Holy Star, #5 Kerkeni
RACE 2: #3 Amazing Feeling, #2 Flying Monkey, #8 Victor Emperor, #10 Fine Rock
RACE 3: #7 Golden Chopsticks, #2 Why Why, #4 Verbinsky, #1 E-Super
RACE 4: #4 Sharp Hunter, #7 Ace King, #1 Arm Runda, #8 Robust Momentum
RACE 5: #2 Royal Partner, #4 Super Sprinter, #3 Happy And Healthy, #12 St Yazin
RACE 6: #11 Glory Star, #4 Victory Boys, #10 Newswire Free, #7 Pearl Furu
RACE 7: #6 Outlawed, #9 Super Fluke, #3 Kingsfield, #12 Mr Potential
RACE 8: #12 Victory Marvel, #9 Lucky Profit, #3 Super Turbo, #5 Travel Successor


#11 Sweet Bean is at a point in the ratings where he really should be winning and reigning champion rider Joao Moreira jumps on to add the cherry on top. He’ll be no value but he’s by far and away the most likely winner. #7 Glamorous Ryder was a winner over this course and distance last season. It’s a tough ask for him off a rating of 33, but in a race that seems to lack genuine pace, he can settle handy to the speed and finish somewhere in the mix. #10 Holy Star is versatile but can lead if necessary. He was consistent last season without winning and the Happy Valley 1800m looks like it will be right up his alley. #5 Kerkeni needs to be held up for the last crack at them, which has hindered his chance of finding the winner’s circle. He’s near a win but needs everything to suit and he is unlikely to get that here. However, he is a place chance.


#3 Amazing Feeling looked a horse of immense promise early last season, but in four subsequent starts, he has been nothing short of disappointing. With a summer under his belt and further maturity, hopefully he can fulfill that promise this time around, beginning in this Class 4. Neil Callan jumps on from a good draw and this looks his chance to break through. #2 Flying Monkey was more dominant last time out than the half-length margin of victory suggests. He goes up six pounds but should be able to let the speed go here and get the perfect trail. #8 Victor Emperor has been terrific in two runs at Sha Tin this season when drawn wide. He returns to the scene of his most recent victory and finally draws an inside barrier. Enigmatic #10 Fine Rock creates interest at his first run for Caspar Fownes.


What you see is what you get with #7 Golden Chopsticks. The popular son of Verglas has built up an imposing record over the Happy Valley 1200m for a horse of his calibre. He returns to Happy Valley after two runs down the straight at Sha Tin and is now at a place in the ratings where he should be in the mix again. He’ll get a soft run from gate four, too. #2 Why Why comes back to the city track, where he has not performed from limited opportunities in the past, but his last run was excellent and he finally draws a gate this preparation. #4 Verbinsky looks a winner in waiting but is likely to be under the odds, so tread carefully. #1 E-Super has not raced since February but he had shown a liking for the Happy Valley circuit with two wins before he was sidelined and he looms as some chance fresh.


It has been almost two and a half years since #4 Sharp Hunter last scored – the only time he won in Hong Kong, in fact – but his recent form suggests he will be breaking through soon. He finished last season with a closing third and then picked up where he left off, charging into second behind Victory Marvel four weeks ago. This race looks to set up perfectly for him and it is his chance to win once again. #7 Ace King couldn’t have been more impressive down the straight first-up. He only needs to hold that form and find a trouble-free passage from gate 10 to be a chance again. #1 Arm Runda was only fair fresh, but John Size-trained runners generally come on for a run so it may pay to forgive. Next best #8 Robust Momentum, who looks to be near a bottom in the ratings.


#2 Royal Partner is another who has not won for a long time, his last victory coming in November 2014. He generally gets a long way out of his ground before charging home, which he did first-up on the dirt when flying into fourth. He’s suited by coming back to the Happy Valley 1650m and should get all favours. #4 Super Sprinter had few excuses first-up when fifth as a hot favourite. He is likely to be heavily supported again and will improve with a run under his belt. #3 Happy And Healthy is suited returning to this course and distance, particularly with a good draw. Neil Callan should be able to settle him closer to the speed and give him every chance. Keep an eye on #12 St Yazin, with the eight-year-old stepping beyond 1200m for the first time since April 2014. He will be dismissed by many over the extended trip and may be looking for the drop to Class 5, but he is honest and will be running on late.


In a race devoid of pace, #11 Glory Star looks the most logical leader and if he gets his own way in front, he’ll be hard to run down. He’s been racing consistently since breaking through in Class 5 and the switch to Chad Schofield here is a major positive. #4 Victory Boys needs a bit of pace on in order to run home but he looks progressive and a likely type to make it up to Class 3 in short time. #10 Newswire Free has been around the mark without breaking through. He’s one to oppose if he’s under the odds, but he also is consistent so he is one to include in exotics. Next best #7 Pearl Furu who looks to be finding form and maps to get a great run in transit.


#6 Outlawed only showed one real glimpse of form in his first season, causing a 42-1 shock when saluting by a head in April. However, his recent barrier trial behind Beauty Flame, when he was under a hold late, was strong and the form has stood up out of the trial. He also gets Brett Prebble aboard, taking over from junior rider Jack Wong. He’s an interesting runner, despite gate 11. #9 Super Fluke has hardly fluked his recent run of form, finishing in the top five in his last seven, but he is still yet to get his head down first in Hong Kong. His time is coming, it’s just a matter of when. #3 Kingsfield comes out of a pace-setting third behind exciting Pakistan Star and strikes what seems to be an easier Class 3 here, while #12 Mr Potential looks his major pace threat and can stick on under his light weight.


#12 Victory Marvel rises in class after a narrow defeat under 132 pounds last time out. He drops to 114 pounds here, gets a good draw with in-form Chad Schofield aboard and looks the one to beat. #9 Lucky Profit sprinted through like the winner but couldn’t peg back Hang’s Decision last time out. He looks to get a good set-up and is the main danger. #3 Super Turbo was fair first-up when struggling to find a clear path through the pack. He may be looking for a step up in trip now but if he gets pace on, he’ll be coming at them late. #5 Travel Successor gets a key riding change to Neil Callan and is gifted with the inside draw, so improvement can be expected.