10/27/2016 10:31AM

Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, Oct. 30, 2016

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HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS
(Sunday, Oct. 30, 2016)

RACE 1: #10 Le Pegase, #9 Bliss Cartel, #4 Real Supreme, #1 Faithful Boy

RACE 2: #11 High Speed Metro, #4 Choice Exchequer, #2 Island Flyer, #7 Glamorous Ryder

RACE 3: #10 Penang Hall, #6 Lamarosa, #9 Silver Spun, #4 Travel Successor

RACE 4: #8 Joy Plus Fun, #4 House Of Luck, #3 Wild Boy, #2 Lansbury

RACE 5: #9 Sight Seeing, #3 Cour Valant, #6 Quantum Dash, #10 Robust Momentum

RACE 6: #9 Giant Turtle, #11 Super Sweet Orange, #5 Great Joy, #7 Pearl Furu

RACE 7: #5 Ultimate Glory, #9 Superoi, #7 Pikachu, #3 Photon Willie

RACE 8: #6 Apache Spirit, #4 Fairy Twins, #1 Happy Bao Bei, #2 Sunny Dragon

RACE 9: #12 Victory Boys, #4 Lotus Strikes Back, #1 Happy Spirit, #5 Packing Dragon

RACE 10: #2 Apollo's Choice, #5 Happy Surveys, #8 Midnight Rattler, #6 Back In Black

:: HONG KONG: Get PPs, analysis, selections, and watch Sunday's card live

RACE 1: ASTER HANDICAP

#10 Le Pegase spent nine months on the sidelines earlier this year and in the meantime changed stables from Tony Millard to Almond Lee. His first run for Lee was just fair, but he showed his first semblance of form in his Hong Kong career last time out. With Karis Teetan jumping aboard, expect him to be in the mix. #9 Bliss Cartel is the likely favourite at his first run at Happy Valley since a poor last on debut in 2014, with Joao Moreira jumping aboard here for the first time. He enters in good form for his rating of 23 and he should be around the mark, although he may be no value. #4 Real Supreme has fallen a long way from his best days. He is now the earliest arrival still racing in Hong Kong, having landed in 2009, but the nine-year-old might still have one more win left in him, based on his last run. Next best, #1 Faithful Boy, who is dropping into Class 5 again.

RACE 2: BELLFLOWER HANDICAP

#11 High Speed Metro is a quirky horse that needs everything to go his way, but the booking of Silvestre de Sousa is a positive and he’s always dangerous off this sort of mark. #4 Choice Exchequer is racing well this campaign, winning comfortably fresh before running well for second last time out. He will push forward from the inside gate and he is likely to run well yet again. #2 Island Flyer rarely runs a bad race and should get an ideal run in transit just off the speed with Neil Callan jumping aboard. This race might be on the short side for #7 Glamorous Ryder, although he did win over the 1800m in April. He boxed on fairly last time out and will likely be a contender again here.

RACE 3: CORNFLOWER HANDICAP

#10 Penang Hall looked a promising galloper in the making after winning two of his first three starts in 2015. Since then, though, he has been somewhat disappointing, although his season was interrupted by injury. He comes to Happy Valley for the first time and has drawn a good gate, so should get an ideal run. He bears close watching. #6 Lamarosa was finally starting to acclimatise towards the end of last season. His best form was over the 1000m, which remains some concern as he steps up to 1200m here, but he is a leading chance if he finds his best. #9 Silver Spun is an interesting debutant, having been rushed along by Me Tsui to make it to the track. Formerly raced in Sydney, he only stepped out on the training track here in Hong Kong in early August but has been rushed through three trials and a number of gallops to make it here. His trials have been good, though, so he wouldn’t surprise if he showed something at his local debut. #4 Travel Successor needs a race shape to suit but if he gets things his way, expect big improvement.

RACE 4: DANDELION HANDICAP

#8 Joy Plus Fun creates interest here first-up. He was very raw last preparation but there were glimpses of talent and it shouldn’t take him too long to be breaking through this time in. #4 House Of Luck is one to watch closely with a switch to Brett Prebble. He may be on his mark, but Prebble is the man to get the most out of him, and he maps to get a nice run. #3 Wild Boy stormed home to finish second behind High Volatility last time out. He’s another who should get a nice run in transit and he looks to be nearing a mark where he can win again. Next best, #2 Lansbury, who is well overdue for a victory.

RACE 5: HIBISCUS HANDICAP

#9 Sight Seeing hasn’t won in almost two years, but his runs this preparation suggest that he will be finding the winners’ circle again soon. It is only his second run at Happy Valley, though, so it remains to be seen whether that is a positive. Still, off his current rating, he is worth a chance. #3 Cour Valant has only had two runs for new trainer Derek Cruz, but he looks to have returned in good form. He is another who hasn’t won in a long time, this race coming exactly two and a half years since his last win, but it won’t be long before he salutes again. Conversely, #6 Quantum Dash is a first starter, but his trials have suggested that he can gallop. #10 Robust Momentum is always a chance over this course and distance and must be included in all exotics.

RACE 6: DANDELION HANDICAP

#9 Giant Turtle is a perfect example of the Hong Kong system in action. He only beat a total of 12 horses in his first 10 runs, often finishing being beaten 10 lengths or more. He was a shadow of the galloper who had a G2 second to Mongolian Khan in New Zealand. But then, he suddenly found form towards the end of last season, producing a number of terrific efforts that suggested a win was near. He steps out for new trainer Tony Millard here, having trialled well in preparation for this, and if he picks up where he left off, he should be winning here. #11 Super Sweet Orange is racing consistently and is overdue to break through, and he can make it a quinella for legendary New Zealand stallion, the late Zabeel. #5 Great Joy is talented but still does a few little things wrong. He needs things to go his way if he is to break through, but he could be among the placings. #7 Pearl Furu is performing well and a win is also near for him.

RACE 7: THE HONG KONG GOLF CLUB CENTENARY HANDICAP

#5 Ultimate Glory creates plenty of interest at his return to Happy Valley. Unfortunately, the son of Exceed And Excel is now limited in his opportunities to race at the city circuit, because he is banned from racing under lights after throwing away certain victory in March when he shied away from the shadow of the winning post. That means that this will be the only time this season he will return to the course and distance of two wins last term. He enters in good form, having finished second at Sha Tin last start, and he should get a good run from the inside gate. #9 Superoi is an honest, consistent galloper who looks to be primed for this race first-up, going off a recent solid Happy Valley trial. #7 Pikachu has been racing well, although the switch to Happy Valley may not be entirely suitable if they ride him as far back as he has found himself recently. #3 Photon Willie is reunited with Nash Rawiller here, a big plus given the rider is the only jockey to have won on the seven-year-old in Hong Kong and he also won on the horse in Australia. A better draw is a big plus.

RACE 8: CORNFLOWER HANDICAP

#6 Apache Spirit arrived in Hong Kong with form around horses like Ectot, Karakontie and Talco, but he simply struggled to acclimatise in his first 18 months in Hong Kong and performed poorly. He finally put it together at the end of last preparation, sprinting very powerfully to win two races over this course and distance. A setback ruled him out of his intended return, but if the Apache Spirit of late last season turns up, he’ll be very competitive here. #4 Fairy Twins is on an upward spiral, having won two of his five races to date – and arguably, he should have won two more. He will be short again and has an awkward gate, but he’s the one to beat. #1 Happy Bao Bei is racing in great form without winning and has drawn well, while #2 Sunny Dragon had big wraps in Sydney and bears close watching.

RACE 9: HYDRANGEA HANDICAP

#12 Victory Boys steps up into Class 3 for the first time but he has looked a different horse since Brett Prebble has taken the ride. He has won three of his last four, with his only defeat coming by a short head in that time. The step up to 1800m should suit him and with only 118 pounds on his back, he looks very well placed here. #4 Lotus Strikes Back should arguably have won last time out when he was just edged out by Green Dispatch at Sha Tin. His only Hong Kong win came over this course and distance and he is entering in good form. #1 Happy Spirit is a horse that goes forward and makes his own luck. Young local rider Alvin Ng has been riding him for the most part and won on him last start, but the booking of top jockey Zac Purton – one of the best at rating front-runners – is a major tick. Next best, #5 Packing Dragon at his return to Happy Valley, although the outside gate looks quite awkward on paper.

RACE 10: ROSELLE HANDICAP

A fascinating race to close the card. #2 Apollo's Choice is first-up, but was one of the more consistent horses going around last season. He is at a mark where he should be competitive and the Happy Valley 1200m should suit him fresh, especially with a soft enough draw. #5 Happy Surveys loomed as the type of horse who would be suited once he could win his way into Class 2, which he finally did with a storming victory last time out. He’s a model of consistency but should enjoy the weight relief going up in class. #8 Midnight Rattler had little luck first-up with the blinkers on, when he was crowded for room late. The outside gate is a concern, but he’s likely to drift back anyway. #6 Back In Black won five races last season, tough for any horse under the Hong Kong system, but he needs to show that he hasn’t yet hit his mark. The jury’s still out, but if he can find his best, he probably has a Class 2 win in him.