03/08/2018 4:45PM

Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Sunday, March 11, 2018



(Sunday, March 11, 2018)


:: Hong Kong: Free PPs, picks, and analysis


RACE 1: #1 Flying Noble, #5 Torney, #2 Good Method, #11 Winning Boy

RACE 2: #4 Destin, #1 Golden Dash, #3 Shanghai Dragon, #11 Formula Galore

RACE 3: #3 King Genki, #5 People's Knight, #7 Beauty Prince, #1 Fight Hero

RACE 4: #11 Presidentparamount, #13 Good Choice Ahead, #9 Bingo, #4 Noble De Love

RACE 5: #9 Remarkable, #8 Top Ace, #2 Quick Return, #13 Dutch Windmill

RACE 6: #2 Calculation, #10 Travel First, #9 Land Grant, #3 Royal Performer

RACE 7: #2 Not Listenin'tome, #6 Winner's Way, #9 House Of Fun, #7 Archippus

RACE 8: #2 Harmony Hero, #1 Lucky Dollar, #3 Infinity Endeavour, #12 Super Wise

RACE 9: #9 Fiama, #3 Jolly Convergence, #13 Sun Touch, #6 Volitation

RACE 10: #13 Sangria, #11 Sacred Ibis, #12 Everest, #3 Bigwood



#1 Flying Noble had big support at his first two runs this season but wasn’t able to score. He’s dropped since to the point where he now makes his debut in Class 5. Derek Leung jumps back aboard from a good gate and he looks hard to beat now. #5 Torney also gets the class drop for the first time. He is another who has drawn well and if he can find his best form, he should be around the mark. #2 Good Method has had a number of issues but he’s always a chance in this grade. He’ll be hard to beat. #11 Winning Boy, the nine-year-old half-brother to Derby contender Rivet, might have one more win left in him.



#4 Destin finally put it all together two starts ago to break through over the Sha Tin 1400m. He then dropped in trip last time out and had little luck, making his eighth better than it appears on paper. With a better draw here, he shouldn’t get as far back here. He should be a contender. #1 Golden Dash is still learning the caper but it is clear that he has ability. His debut win was strong and his two runs since have been solid. He’s a chance. #3 Shanghai Dragon has run well enough in two races, although they are performances where he may have been flattered. Still, he deserves consideration. #11 Formula Galore has no weight to carry and he should be around the mark.



#3 King Genki is a hard horse to catch. Nevertheless, he’s always a chance in races over this course and distance, where he has stepped out six times for two wins and two placings. He should push forward and may even get the lead uncontested, although there are a few horses that may apply pressure throughout. Still, this race appears suitable and he will be in front for a long way. #5 People's Knight is another with a good course and distance record. He can’t be overlooked, nor can his stablemate #7 Beauty Prince, who will also race handy. #1 Fight Hero probably doesn’t see out a strong mile, but he is a solid galloper on this surface and he can get into the placings.



#11 Presidentparamount has dropped 26 rating points from his last winning rating of 69. He hasn’t shown a lot since transferring to Michael Chang in June, but his last run was better and it appears that he is capable of winning before he faces his first drop into Class 5. #13 Good Choice Ahead is a horse who looks like he should appreciate Sha Tin’s bigger track, but his best form has clearly come at Happy Valley. Still, he’s racing well enough to suggest a win is near – although perhaps a mile would be better. #9 Bingo is racing well but just can’t break through. He’s likely to run another strong race, but whether he can win is another story. #4 Noble De Love will be around the mark.



#9 Remarkable relished the switch to the dirt to win ever so comfortably last time out. He steps back in trip from 1800m to 1650m here, while he has to overcome a 10-point penalty. However, he also has a better draw and if the penny has truly dropped, he could easily take another step forward here. #8 Top Ace performed well last season from limited outings, but he hasn’t quite shown that form this season. Still, if he can return to his best, he’s not without a hope here. #2 Quick Return was poor last start but had been good before that. He can’t be dismissed. At big odds, #13 Dutch Windmill is worth including in all exotics as he makes his dirt debut. He is eligible for Class 5 now, but he could sneak a placing.



#2 Calculation makes his dirt debut here, although he did break his maiden on the Dundalk polytrack. He has a running style which looks as though it would be suited on the surface, so he is worthy of consideration in this spot. #10 Travel First, like Winning Boy earlier in the day, is a three-quarter brother to Derby contender Rivet. Both of his wins have come over this course and distance and he is at a mark where he should be winning again soon. #9 Land Grant is consistent and with even luck, he could get into the finish. #3 Royal Performer is racing well and cannot be overlooked.



#2 Not Listenin'tome definitely appears to be on a downward spiral but this might be his best opportunity to get a win this season. Matthew Poon’s seven-pound claim takes him down to 121 pounds, a weight he rarely gets a chance to carry, and the race shape looks suitable for him. Don’t rule him out. #6 Winner's Way, remarkably, steps out below 1400m for the first time in Hong Kong. He did run over 1200m in Australia, finishing second in a maiden, but he has been untried at the trip since. However, he gets in with a nice weight and in a race with plenty of queries, he might be able to sprint over the top of his rivals. #9 House Of Fun looks well-placed with nothing to carry. He doesn’t win out of turn and has probably found his mark but he still deserves respect. #7 Archippus is a place chance.



#2 Harmony Hero makes his eagerly-awaited debut here. He was unbeaten from two starts in Australia and both were impressive, including his last victory in August at Sandown when he sat wide before sprinting right away from G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Mighty Boss. His trials have helped to solidify his reputation as an exciting galloper, and while it is very difficult for a horse to win on debut in Hong Kong, he is a horse that looks to have points in hand and so he should be able to win here. If one beats him, it is most likely to be #1 Lucky Dollar upon his return to Class 3. He is always a player in this grade and he has a draw which should allow him to capitalise. #3 Infinity Endeavour is racing well and should be around the mark, while #12 Super Wise also deserves consideration.



#9 Fiama finished off nicely at his first Hong Kong start. He may need further than the 1400m he faces here, but the former Victorian galloper – who was named Ratoute Yutty when down under – is capable of figuring in this spot. #3 Jolly Convergence has not run at Sha Tin in almost a year. However, his last-start win was good and he should appreciate the step up to 1400m. #13 Sun Touch will go forward and, with no weight on his back, he can stick around for some minor money. #6 Volitation won very easily last time out. It’s going to be hard for him to back that performance up, but he’s still some chance.



#13 Sangria has a poor record at Sha Tin, but returns to the bigger track for the first time since he has been stepped up in trip this season. He has drawn well and with no weight on his back, he’ll be a contender here. #11 Sacred Ibis is a likeable horse who keeps finding the line strongly. He’s sure to be charging home again. #12 Everest also has a feather weight and he has been racing well with blinkers applied. He can finish around the mark. Don’t dismiss #3 Bigwood, having his second start in Hong Kong.