11/10/2016 11:21AM

Andrew Hawkins' Hong Kong selections and analysis for Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016



(Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016)


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RACE 1: #4 Telephatia, #9 Win Chance, #2 Malayan Pearl, #10 High Speed Metro

RACE 2: #2 Royale Elegance, #1 House Of Fun, #9 Prince Harmony, #3 Lovely Delovely

RACE 3: #9 Lucky Ball, #7 Equity Doctrine, #2 Consistent, #1 Dragon Harmony

RACE 4: #14 Super Sweet Orange, #11 Victor Emperor, #1 Home Run, #5 Wisky

RACE 5: #2 Lucky Hammer, #1 Electronic Phoenix, #4 Master Gold, #6 True Comment

RACE 6: #6 Double Down, #5 Winning Vibe, #8 Southern Express, #14 Soaring Wyvern

RACE 7: #2 Go Baby Go, #5 Water Diviner, #3 Beauty Master, #9 Red Kylin

RACE 8: #1 Blizzard, #3 Mr Bogart, #2 Circuit Land, #12 Apollo's Choice

RACE 9: #4 Western Express, #7 Lotus Breeze, #11 Seasons Bloom, #9 Regency Darling

RACE 10: #5 People's Knight, #4 Marvel Hero, #8 Starship, #9 Classic Emperor



Almond Lee sends out three of the 12 runners and looks to be the trainer to follow here. #4 Telephatia is extremely dour, but is well-placed in this grade over this trip. He has yet to win over the Sha Tin 2000m but strikes an easier race and the booking of a vigorous rider like Silvestre de Sousa only shapes as a positive. Stablemate #9 Win Chance is racing well currently. He doesn’t win out of turn but his only two wins came over the Sha Tin 2000m off ratings higher than where he finds himself now. He may need some luck from the gate, though. #2 Malayan Pearl is a fairly straightforward galloper who is racing well currently. He’s the likely leader under Kei Chiong and will be in the mix. #10 High Speed Metro is near a win, although he is a horse that needs everything to go his way – a rarity. He does get Joao Moreira, though.



It was difficult to watch #2 Royale Elegance at Happy Valley on Wednesday night as he went to the line under a hold, untested after striking trouble numerous times in the straight. He has been racing well for Chris So since shifting stables from John Moore, and while he may be on his mark, his Happy Valley run suggests that he deserves another chance on the quick back-up. #1 House Of Fun had his chance to win second-up, but was simply outgunned. He seems a horse that can’t be exposed too early, but gate eight may not give Joao Moreira too many options. Debutant #9 Prince Harmony has had a thorough preparation and has trialled reasonably. Barrier 12 is a bit of a deterrent, but he won’t have to be anything special to figure here. At odds, keep an eye on #3 Lovely Delovely, the first Hong Kong mount for promising Irish rider Oisin Murphy. Lovely Delovely was a Class 2 winner when allowed to stride out in front, but front-running tactics have rarely been employed recently. With the drop back into Class 4, perhaps his speed will be utilized once again.



Silvestre de Sousa has a strong book to start the Sha Tin card, and he again has another chance on #9 Lucky Ball at his first run on the dirt. David Hall’s galloper has speed and should be up in the firing line early from the inside gate. In what it is a typical Class 5 on the all-weather track, the son of Holy Roman Emperor creates interest. #7 Equity Doctrine was unlucky last time out, not getting clear until Flying Machine was off and gone and then flying into second late. A repeat of that effort will see him as the one to beat here. #2 Consistent had always looked a horse capable of winning his races on dirt before finally breaking through on the surface last time out. He has a better draw here and is a big chance of going back-to-back. Next best, #1 Dragon Harmony, who has a strong record in Class 5 on dirt.



#14 Super Sweet Orange has always looked to have some talent but the fact remains that he has only placed once in his 16-start Hong Kong career. Still, a solidly-run 1400m looks to be right up his alley and with no weight on his back, perhaps he can break through here. #11 Victor Emperor looks on the cusp of another win after racing well enough in recent starts. He doesn’t win often, but he is racing like the 1400m should suit him now. #1 Home Run has only won one of his seven starts to date, but he has been consistent and looks a horse who will go ahead in leaps and bounds once he can break through to the bottom of Class 3. A strong rider in Silvestre de Sousa looks imperative, while gate four should allow him options. He’s a chance. #5 Wisky showed promise once stepped up to Happy Valley’s extended mile last season. He looks capable of going on with it this campaign, but he is likely to need the run at his first outing since July.



A horse with speed is always dangerous on the dirt track at Sha Tin, and that description fits #2 Lucky Hammer. It has been a long time since he has led them up or even been near the speed on the all-weather track, but that pace carried him to two victories two years ago. He may not be as fast as he once was, but he drops into Class 4 for just the second time in his career and gate 13 may force Opie Bosson’s hand. #1 Electronic Phoenix is racing well, but unlike Lucky Hammer, it is his lack of early speed which makes winning such a novelty for him. He has been unlucky twice this season not to add to his tally, but he is likely to be very short back down in Class 4 with Joao Moreira aboard and so he might be risky on a win line, at least in terms of value. #4 Master Gold has been a different horse since switching to the dirt, winning only once but producing two other top runs. There’s no reason why he can’t go close again on this surface. Next best, #6 True Comment, who looks to be nearing a bottom in the ratings.



#6 Double Down was at big odds on debut and had little natural speed, but he made significant ground from last to fly into fourth in what was a promising first effort. With natural improvement here and perhaps a bit more race sense, he will be right in the thick of it. #5 Winning Vibe has not looked the most genuine horse, probably one reason the blinkers have been reapplied. He has an ideal draw and as long as he races tractably, he will be a major player. #8 Southern Express has trialled well alongside stablemate Beat The Clock, a runaway winner last weekend, and while he is likely to improve for the hitout, he looks like he will be out of Class 4 in no time at all. #14 Soaring Wyvern has shown glimpses of talent but is yet to put it all together. Maybe the drop in class is what he needs, but with no weight on his back, he is a horse that must be included in exotics.



It has been a slow decline for #2 Go Baby Go since he won what are now the only two stakes races on the calendar that are run down the straight – he won both the G3 Bauhinia Sprint Trophy and the G3 Sha Tin Sprint Trophy (now the National Day Cup) in 2013. He has only won once since, a shock victory down the straight in May 2015. Still, if he is ever to win again, perhaps it will be here. He has drawn towards the outside, always a plus down the straight, and with Kei Chiong aboard he will likely fire out and lead and will prove tough to cut down. #5 Water Diviner makes his Hong Kong debut here, having won only one race from eight starts in Australia. While his overseas resume is nothing flash, he has looked good in the mornings and looks primed to run a race fresh. #3 Beauty Master has been a different horse this season down the straight but has to overcome an awkward gate in barrier two, while #9 Red Kylin has been fitted with blinkers but won’t want to end up too far out of his ground early.



A fascinating Class 1 that has been won by the likes of California Memory and Beauty Flame in recent years. It is a race where potential Group-class sprinter Racing Supernova is likely to have plenty of supporters with only 119 pounds on his back, but he has looked a query beyond 1200m for quite some time and may be worth opposing. Instead, side with the proven #1 Blizzard, despite the 132 pounds on his back. An incredibly consistent type, Blizzard looks best suited to the 1400m and the booking of Zac Purton is a plus. He has been very strong against better company in two runs this season and looks ready to win for this first time this campaign. #3 Mr Bogart was the first horse to conquer boom galloper Pakistan Star last time out when he had everything to suit. He is drawn to again get a gun run and can repeat. #2 Circuit Land has been something of a surprise packet this season – he looked to be a better horse on dirt, but last start suggested he is equally effective on turf. The outside gate is awkward but he will drop back anyway and if he can replicate his turn of foot from last start, he may finish over the top of his rivals late. Next best, #12 Apollo's Choice, who goes in purely because of his consistency.



A difficult race to assess with five horses stepping out in Hong Kong for the first time. #4 Western Express raced as Cardless Cash in Australia, where he was unbeaten in two starts at Pakenham and Doomben. He has trialled well and gets Joao Moreira aboard for his debut effort. #7 Lotus Breeze finally broke through for his first Hong Kong win two back before disappointing last time out. He deserves another chance, particularly dropping back to 1200m. #11 Seasons Bloom is another Hong Kong debutant out of Australia, having finished fifth on debut at Caulfield before winning a maiden at Pakenham when named Le Capitaine. He was tested in a recent straight trial but responded well to win, and he looks tuned up for this. #9 Regency Darling is likely to bounce straight to the lead from the inside with Kei Chiong booked to ride. He may be tough to run down if he gets things his own way.



#5 People's Knight has been nothing short of disappointing since beginning his career with three wins from his first five starts, including the Griffin Trophy. In fact, he has only placed once in eight starts since. Admittedly, he has been luckless a number of times, but others, he has just been plain. He was gelded before the start of this campaign and he has been racing like a horse in need of fitness. He has improved with each start, and the step up to 1600m looks ideal now. He doesn’t have many chances left in him, but he’s worth one here. #4 Marvel Hero is one of the smaller horses racing in Hong Kong, but he is quite consistent – that is, if you ignore his last start. He’s had almost a month between runs, which should be in his favour, and he has an ideal draw with Zac Purton aboard. #8 Starship caught the eye flashing home at his Hong Kong debut behind Jing Jing Win at a massive price. If he takes improvement from that, he’ll be a chance here. Next is #9 Classic Emperor, who looks one of the only speed influences with Kei Chiong aboard from the outside gate.