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Andrew Beyer: Gulfstream's Rainbow 6 hard to resist with mandatory payout
Horseplayers from coast to coast circled Friday, April 5, on their calendars many months ago. That is the final day of the racing season at Gulfstream Park and the day that the track must pay out the money that has accumulated in its pick-six jackpot. It will be a day of gambling frenzy.
The Hallandale Beach, Fla., track offers a version of the pick six called the Rainbow 6, a 10-cent bet that pays off its big prize only when a single bettor holds a ticket with all six winners. Otherwise, a percentage of all the wagers goes into the jackpot pool.
Nobody has held a unique perfect ticket since Feb. 22, and if nobody does so Thursday, approximately $2 million in the jackpot will be paid out Friday – an irresistible target. Tim Ritvo, Gulfstream’s president, said, “We’re expecting $6 to $8 million to be bet.” If the high end of his estimate is correct, Gulfstream will break the record of $7.59 million wagered on a Hollywood Park pick six in 2007.
I wrote earlier this winter that the Rainbow 6 was a sucker bet, one that many fans played enthusiastically because they didn’t understand its mathematics. But the climactic jackpot is so attractive that any sensible horseplayer has to play. However, much of the public will continue to misunderstand the wager.
Racing fans like the Rainbow 6 because the 10-cent unit lets them cover so many more possibilities than they could in a conventional $2 pick six. The wager seems fairer to the little guy. But, in fact, the 10-cent unit has permitted high rollers to wager five-figure sums and cover hundreds of thousands of combinations in the hope of hitting a succession of crazy longshots. That’s what happened on Feb. 22, when the Rainbow 6 paid $3.59 million to a single player in New Jersey. No little guy could win the whole pool against such competition.
On Friday, many handicappers will play large tickets, using as many horses as they can in the hope of catching longshots who will contribute to an astronomical payoff. But the payoff won’t be six or seven digits, and it may not even be in five digits. The finale of the Rainbow 6 will be no different from a day with a huge carryover in a conventional pick six, except that the betting unit is 1/20th the size of a pick six and the payoff will be 1/20th the size.
On the closing day of the 2011 season, when the Rainbow 6 pool reached $5 million and most players were shooting for a bonanza, the winning combination paid an anticlimactic $3,279. Actually, that was a very generous result for a logical sequence of results in which only one horse won at odds higher than 4-1. The $3,279 payoff was the equivalent of a $65,580 return for a $2 bet, and was probably double what one might have expected in a conventional pick six. The result offered great value because so many bettors put so many longshots on their tickets that logical horses were significantly underplayed.
So this is my recommended strategy for Friday: Bet as if this were a conventional pick six. Don’t play longshots willy-nilly just because this is a 10-cent bet. Take a stand with logical horses when it’s possible.
Here are my ideas on the challenging Rainbow 6 races, all of them with full fields of 12 horses. The sequence begins on the eighth race of a 13-race card. Program numbers are in parentheses.
◗ 8th race. A majority of the 3-year-old fillies in this maiden race have never raced; faced with so many unknowns, bettors must cover quite a few possibilities. I’ll go five deep. Fame and Fortune (2), Carnival Court (6), and Akron Moon (8) are all well-bred first-time starters from good stables. The best of those who have raced are Sweet N Discreet (10), a Todd Pletcher trainee, and Big Belief (11), whose last start was better than it looks on paper.
◗ 9th race. Like so many maiden-claiming races on the turf, this one is hard to decipher. Third Martini, the probable favorite, ran creditably in his last start but was aided by an easy trip. King Khalifa had a difficult trip in his only previous turf start. But it’s hard to muster much confidence in either, and this is a race in which to cover as many contenders as possible.
◗ 10th race. Jordan’s Image (10) overcame trouble to win at this level in his next-to-last start; he encountered even more trouble in his last start and couldn’t surmount it. He has the edge here, but the rival who beat him last time, Monroe Court (4), did so with a strong performance, and Positive Action (3) raced five wide in the same field.
◗ 11th race. Most players will use many horses in this maiden race that includes five first-time starters. I’m taking a stand with Foganzo (5) and – in what may be a suicidal impulse – disregarding Pletcher’s first-time starter, Silver Lining John, even though the trainer dominates 3-year-old maiden races at Gulfstream. His colt has a mediocre pedigree and is hardly a typical Pletcher type. Foganzo raced once, broke two lengths behind the field, and finished fourth, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 82 – good enough to win the majority of 3-year-old maiden races at Gulfstream.
◗ 12th race. Film Making (4) must to be included on a ticket, but he is a vulnerable favorite with a 1-for-19 career record. Crafty Unicorn (1), Diez (2), and Coexist (3) are the other contenders.
◗ 13th race. If My Pal Ariana (14) doesn’t draw in from the also-eligible list, this maiden grass race is inscrutable. Nora’s Song (4) will probably be the favorite, and she can win, but there are many long-priced entrants with a chance, including Giacomo’s Aria (5), Hope’s Dream (7), or Sortaria (12). This is the spot for Rainbow 6 players to put as many horses as possible on their ticket and root for a crazy longshot to win.
© 2013, The Washington Post
Its big (bingo) players that build the pools and they will dominate no matter what you do. Small players tend to play too many favorites. Between the big guys and ridiculous take-outs a small timers hits have got to be huge in order to beat the long term odds.
I think the point of the bet is to give the smaller players a chance to hit it for a reasonable price. The $2 p6 tends to exclude the smaller players. I believe this happens because the bigger players are constantly lobbying for bets that they can dominate. For example, I always get annoyed when influential players lobby for maidens at the front-end of the pick6 in order to see the odds and complain about the 5f turf races in the sequence. It's just not fair to the other bettors. The game has to focus on giving all types of handicappers chance and price has a lot to do with it.
race 8) 6/11 race9) 6/3 race 10) 7/3 race 11)5/6 race 12) 8/9 race 13) 4/8
Twin spiresis putting together a 100,000 $ ticket that members can buy in for as little as 10bucks.
60 TO 70 % chance of rain on friday.3 of the races are on turf.If they get taken off the turf the fields will shrink.Hit it today before the big boys show up.GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
Best advice: throw out the Beyer figures. Meaningless!
Does any one know if it stilk pays a percentage to 5/6 on closing day?
Play thurs and try to win it before the big boys get in!
For a value horse player, this bet has become a gold mine. Who cares if anyone is the sinlge ticket holder! The payouts for all 6 winners (when hit by many) have been great! It's well worth the $200 or $300 I've played to get avg payout of $1,800. Finally a good bet and idea from Frank S. team.
This bet is not a sucker bet at all. Yes, being the only one to hit is hard, but they also pay a certain % if you hit all 6 without a one winner. So, betting .10 carries a lot of weight. A few days ago the payout for all 6 winners was over 3K, not bad for a dime.And, another thing, its fun.