10/18/2016 1:50PM

Analysis for Keeneland's $106K pick-six carryover


A pick-six carryover of $106,745 will greet horseplayers when Keeneland resumes racing on Wednesday, beginning with the third race and continuing to the last race, the eighth. What follows is a race-by-race analysis of wager, which can be played in $1 increments:

Race 3

A maiden $50,000 claiming race for 2-year-olds at seven furlongs, this is a tricky race to handicap. Four of the 10 entrees are first-time starters, and another, Tsunami, is virtually a first timer, having clipped heels early in his lone start, tossing his rider.

The latter is my top choice, having taken action to start at 3-2 odds when he debuted at Arlington in a maiden special weight race Sept. 17, and showing promising local works leading into this race. Still, it is still quite difficult to know just how good he is.

Pick-six players are advised to spread by at least using Remembering Rita, who ran third in his debut, and Dark Arden, second last out vs. cheaper.

Those wishing to go even deeper may wish to consider quick-working first-timer Cowboy Quinn and a couple others that have run, Chocolateicecream and Perplexed.

Race 4

Place Des Vosges is the most likely winner of the fourth race, a starter $50,000 allowance for fillies and mares on the grass that have not won an open allowance. She was twice sixth at Kentucky Downs last month after a wide-trip maiden victory at Churchill Downs in July, and one of those sixths at Kentucky Downs came in stakes company behind recent E.P. Taylor winner Al’s Gal.

Ranking behind her are Anythingyoucando, whose form has been sharp in three starts since being claimed by owner/trainer Steve Asmussen; College Holly, who was second in a race like this one last fall and who has decent Beyer Speed Figures; and All Aces, who didn’t fire at Kentucky Downs last out after previously respectable efforts at Churchill and Indiana Downs.

Race 5

A full field of maiden 2-year-olds goes next in the fifth, a race where Witnessdream may deserve a slight edge, having run a close fourth first out at Churchill. A couple of first-timers, Untrapped and Benevolent Prince, have shown promise in the mornings with blazing works and also merit use in the pick six.

Those wishing to go even deeper may wish to look at second-timers Classic Rock, Strong Yen, and Motown Man.

Race 6

Holding a large class and speed-figure edge in the sixth race is Pinson, who is aggressively dropped into a claiming race for the first time after being competitive in allowances this year. He should win if he maintains his form, and looks like the best single on the card.

Race 7

The speedy One Go All Go was a brave allowance winner at Kentucky Downs last out, and is one of at least several to consider playing in the pick six, with other key contenders being likely favorite Western Reserve, a stakes dropper, and Ascend, who adds Lasix for the first time after a rare dull effort last out.

Those wanting to throw a couple prices into the mix should take a look at Flashlight, who was stakes placed the last time he raced on turf, and High Noon Rider, who races first off the claim for trainer Mike Maker.

Race 8

A $7,500 claiming race for fillies and mares, this is a race best played by using numerous horses.

My preference is Lucy’s Revenge, who moves in with a bit softer and owns respectable dirt Beyers in a race in which some of her principal foes seem more effective on synthetic than dirt. But Lets Go Donna and Kitburn, two such synthetic runners, could also challenge if they take to the Keeneland main track.

Bethany Belle, Judy Judy Judy, and Lime Martini are other threats.