Updated on 09/15/2011 1:03PM

Analysis of Bay Meadows races on 9/20

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BEST BET: ACTIVATE BATTLE (1ST RACE)

First Race

1. ACTIVATE BATTLE 2. JOHN LONG 3. SUPERMAN'S CAPE

ACTIVATE BATTLE isn't going to find an easier group this side of Fresno and figures to go right to the front for Frazier and bid adios to his worn-out rivals. Make it 13 lifetime scores for the gelding. JOHN LONG is part of a 2-for-1 deal being offered by Brinson and he figures to follow along for the minor spoils. He started his career by going 1-for-27, but since he's clicked twice from his last five. SUPERMAN'S CAPE has been in a bit of a rut, but his best outing makes him a factor.

Second Race

1. MARRAN 2. JOY TO ME AND YOU 3. SIMPLY CALDO

Even though that was a pretty bad brake job last time, MARRAN is the master of his own fate today as the lead is there for the taking and he's reunited with the last rider to win with him in Mr. Baze. If there is anything left in the tank, he goes coast-to-coast. JOY TO ME AND YOU is likewise coming into this one off a couple of pretty ugly running lines, but it wasn't all that long ago that he was competitive down at

Hollypark and this class relief could do wonders. SIMPLY CALDO went around the racetrack in one place when well backed in his return from Del Mar earlier this month, so they waste little time dropping him another couple of notches. Like the top two, it's a question of condition.

Third Race

1. LAST REPUTATION 2. CALL ME SOON 3. GONE QUACKERS

The only time LAST REPUTATION has been asked to go around one turn on the turf in this country, the Irish mare was a game winner this spring in Inglewood. Look for Vienna's interloper to stalk the speed and go by when it counts in this abbreviated affair. CALL ME SOON finally ended the frustrating streak of minor awards and seems to have found a great partner in Chad. Fits nicely here from fairly close range and it looks like a great time to give her another shot at the lawn. GONE QUACKERS runs on high octane and figures to appreciate the shorter assignment as she returns from yet another vacation. She's not very reliable, but she's fired fresh in the past and you have to respect her considerable zip.

Fourth Race

1. SMOKE AND ICE 2. MUSICAL VALUE 3. MISTER FISTER

This is the best chance yet for SMOKE AND ICE to get brave and carry his speed all the way to the wire. Matos would be best served to let this guy roll and try to bottom out the field by the time they the lane. Keep those fingers crossed inside the furlong marker. MUSICAL VALUE is taking the opposite approach of most young horses, who normally have a couple of sprints and then try a distance. He gets his first crack at one corner on the ship-up from Del Mar and will no doubt welcome the softer foes. If the top choice stops again, he just might inherit this thing with R Muscle. MISTER FIRSTER debuts for good connections with a couple of decent Albany moves in tow. Check the paddock and toteboard for more clues.

Fifth Race

1. SPANISH PRISONER 2. POLITICAL GAL 3. NAAB A CHANCE

SPANISH PRISONER has been knocking on the door in the two outings since the vacation and may have finally found a field she can outrun. A repeat of either of the those return efforts probably gets her a diploma. POLITICAL GAL did a crash and burn in that router, but is back to the short game now and this drop to the lowest level should help the cause. NAAB A CHANCE is making start No. 21 in hopes of breaking her maiden, and even though she's been close by on several of those occasions, it's hard to have too much confidence after all this time.

Sixth Race

1. MEDIA STORY 2. FREE PASS 3. MISS DYNA CHRIS

Harty sends out a couple of his Godolphin bluebloods and they form a powerful team as the youngsters stretch out to a mile here. MEDIA STORY ran into a real nice prospect in Almudin, who came back to just miss in an allowance race last week, and should be set up perfectly for this longer assignment. He returns from his Santa Anita base with some solid works on his card. The other part of the duo, CLASSICIST, appears to be more than ready for his bow, as he's been working right along with his barnmate. The Unbridled offspring looms very live as they put him right in at a distance. FREE PASS got all messed up in that grass affair at the Seaside and comes up to give it another try with Fresh Frank doing the honors. MISS DYNA CHRIS came up punchless in her second try at Solano as the favorite, but the Dorf has regrouped and she may give the

boys a run for their money under the new conditions.

Seventh Race

1. CABREO 2. NINELEVENTUBRO 3. TRANSPIRE

After coming up a nostril short in his first local attempt off the Hollendorfer claim, there should be no mistakes this time for CABREO. The switch to the turf should be no problem for this guy and he figures to get the perfect two-hole journey to the stretch before kicking it into gear. NINELEVENTURBO has found his true calling since getting more

ground to work with, and who is to say he would step up his game with the move to the new surface. He'll need to make up several lengths to get to the top one, however. TRANSPIRE didn't beat much at Cal Expo for the diploma, but he did it nicely after an early duel and looks like he'll be dictating things with Carr. The son of Bertrando is certainly bred to be better than those humble beginnings and gets his chance to prove it today.

Eighth Race

1. BELARUSE 2. GOLD CHARTER 3. PRO FORTY

BELARUSE ran a good 6 furlongs the other day in his first Bay Area attempt, but they forgot to tell him he was going a mile. With this return to the short game and drop to lower conditioned level, make him strictly the one to beat. GOLD CHARTER got some much needed class relief earlier this month and responded with a decent third at the level. PRO FORTY has certainly found his friends since escaping So Cal and should

be in track-and-attack mode from the outside slot, while Alvarado strings along with CEE PEE after a poor takeoff in the most recent.

- Editor's note - Mark Ratsky's Bay Meadows analysis, which is normally available to drf.com subscribers only, is being offered free of charge until Daily Racing Form can produce its full statistical and editorial product.