02/24/2015 3:45PM

American Pharoah, Dortmund Kentucky Derby Future Wager favorites

Barbara D. Livingston
Dortmund is co-favored among individual interest in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager at 8-1.

American Pharoah and Dortmund are the top morning-line choices behind the mutuel field in Pool 3 of the 2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opens Friday at noon Eastern for a three-day run.

The field, the 24th or “all others” entry, closed as the 3-5 favorite in Pool 1, which ran Nov. 28-30, and was the 5-2 choice in Pool 2 (Feb. 6-8).

For Pool 3, Churchill Downs linemaker Mike Battaglia has pegged the field at 3-1, with American Pharoah and Dortmund next at 8-1 each. Both colts are based in Southern California with trainer Bob Baffert. Carpe Diem and Texas Red are next on the morning line at 12-1, followed by four horses at 15-1: Far From Over, Khozan, Ocean Knight, and Upstart.

Pool 3 coincides with the only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager to be offered by Churchill this year. The Derby pool closes Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern, and the Oaks pool at 6:30.

For the Oaks, the field is the 5-2 morning-line choice, with Take Charge Brandi the lowest individual interest at 6-1. Condo Commando and I’m a Chatterbox are next at 8-1 each.

There are five new names in Derby Pool 3, which comes just three weeks after Pool 2: Bolo, Danzig Moon, Far From Over, Keen Ice, and War Story. Out from Pool 2 are Competitive Edge, Frosted, Gorgeous Bird, Imperia, and J S Bach.

Twelve horses have been listed individually in all three pools.

Aggregate handle from the first two pools is $683,172. The all-time record for combined pools since Churchill first began offering futures in 1999 is $1,665,990, set in 2005. Pool 3 handle last year was $334,326.

Derby Pool 4 will run March 27-29.

The record handle for an Oaks pool is $126,039, set in 2013. Last year the handle was $81,234.

As with any pari-mutuel wager, odds are not locked in until the pool closes. There are no refunds.

Real-time odds and exacta will-pays are available on monitors at tracks and wagering outlets where futures are offered, as well as on kentuckyderby.com.

Minimum wagers are $2 to win and $2 for exactas, although $1 boxes or part-wheels may be used to reach that $2 exacta minimum.

This is the 17th year for the future wager. A single Oaks pool was added in 2003, and exacta wagering was added in 2009. In the case of field horses filling both exacta slots, the next-best finish by a separately listed horse will count toward the winning combination.

Lineups are chosen by John Asher of Churchill, Ed DeRosa of Brisnet, and freelance racing writer Gary West.

Results are predicated on the 141st Oaks and Derby at Churchill on May 1 and 2, respectively.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3

No. Horse (Trainer) Pool 1 odds Pool 2 odds Pool 3 M/L
1 American Pharoah (B. Baffert) 12-1 10-1 8-1
2 Bolo (C. Gaines) 3-5 (field) 5-2 (field) 50-1
3 Carpe Diem (T. Pletcher) 15-1 12-1 12-1
4 Danzig Moon (M. Casse) 3-5 (field) 5-2 (field) 50-1
5 Daredevil (T. Pletcher) 48-1 40-1 30-1
6 Dortmund (B. Baffert) 9-1 10-1 8-1
7 El Kabeir (J. Terranova) 74-1 39-1 30-1
8 Far From Over (T. Pletcher) 3-5 (field) 5-2 (field) 15-1
9 Far Right (R. Moquett) 3-5 (field) 48-1 20-1
10 Firing Line (S. Callaghan) 3-5 (field) 35-1 20-1
11 International Star (M. Maker) 3-5 (field) 44-1 20-1
12 Itsaknockout (T. Pletcher) 3-5 (field) 30-1 20-1
13 Keen Ice (D. Romans) 3-5 (field) 5-2 (field) 50-1
14 Khozan (T. Pletcher) 3-5 (field) 25-1 15-1
15 Lord Nelson (B. Baffert) 72-1 41-1 30-1
16 Mr. Z (W. Lukas) 47-1 44-1 50-1
17 Ocean Knight (K. McLaughlin) 3-5 (field) 18-1 15-1
18 Ocho Ocho Ocho (J. Cassidy) 29-1 26-1 20-1
19 Prospect Park (C. Sise) 3-5 (field) 35-1 30-1
20 Texas Red (K. Desormeaux) 14-1 9-1 12-1
21 The Great War (W. Ward) 72-1 40-1 30-1
22 Upstart (R. Violette) 53-1 12-1 15-1
23 War Story (T. Amoss) 3-5 (field) 5-2 (field) 30-1
24 Field (all others) 3-5 5-2 3-1

Kentucky Oaks Future Wager

No. Horse (Trainer) Churchill Downs M/L
1 Anegela Renee (T. Pletecher) 30-1
2 Birdatthewire (D. Romans) 20-1
3 Callback (B. Baffert) 12-1
4 Condo Commando (R. Rodriguez) 8-1
5 Cristina's Journey (D. Romans) 30-1
6 Ekati's Phaeton (W. Kaplan) 20-1
7 Eskerformoney (T. Pletcher) 20-1
8 Fantastic Style (B. Baffert) 30-1
9 Feathered (T. Pletcher) 20-1
10 Forever Unbridled (D. Stewart) 30-1
11 I'm a Chatterbox (L. Jones) 8-1
12 Light the City (J. Hollendorfer) 30-1
13 Lovely Maria (L. Jones) 30-1
14 Luminance (B. Baffert) 50-1
15 Oceanwave (W. Catalano) 50-1
16 Perchance (K. McLaughlin) 30-1
17 Puca (B. Mott) 20-1
18 Sarah Sis (I. Mason) 30-1
19 Sensitively (P. D'Amato) 50-1
20 Shook Up (S. Asmussen) 30-1
21 Sweet Corine (S. McGaughey) 30-1
22 Take Charge Brandi (W. Lukas) 6-1
23 Wonder Gal (L. Gyarmati) 50-1
24 Field (all others) 5-2


Walter More than 1 year ago
It is tempting to make KY Derby Future bets, however it would be really more attractive if this bet had a LOWER TAKEOUT. There is no reason that CDI should use a regular take on this bet. For this bet, whatever the takeout is becomes pure profit for CDI. CDI should realize that it would achieve so much more handle if the rate was 8-10%. Something to think about.
Jsklad More than 1 year ago
So when are PPs going live on this?
JKpoker1 More than 1 year ago
I think I have the winning horse now. Won't say which one lol but seems to be offering a lot of value and I think will go off as favorite when KD starts. Wouldn't it be awesome if this had only 5-10% takeout. This bet would be so much better but I still make it for the sweat and a reason to watch the derby prep races.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Keep in mind that the KD futures pools will payout just 15% of the take in handle. Just 15%. It is NOT an advisable bet.
Scott Kromer More than 1 year ago
time of the 1 and 1/8 preps has a little to do with handicapping but not too much (if that were the case the sunland derby winner would be dominant every year). I usually look at the final furlong time for each 1 and 1/8 prep to see who is tiring and who is strong at the distance
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
Very good post. Interior fractions can and do reveal great information. Much better than final time for sure. We all know that these horses don't and can't run their fastest the entire race, but, seeing how they go when they are asked can give good info. Bottom line, I do agree with you.
Brian Shaw More than 1 year ago
Not always accurate when there is little pace and the horses get to fly home. Account how fast the pace was early when looking at the final furlong and how fast they finished.
Bob More than 1 year ago
When 20 horses break from the gate on May 2, side swiping , banging into each other , clipping heels and best my held back pinched to avoid all that don't tell me you handicapped a winner. Oh I forgot weaving thru traffic cleanly . The derby has tons to do with luck.
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
This is true Bob. But, you have to admit, looking back at history most of the time the Kentucky Derby winner does end up being one of the best in his generation and for sure mostly the best horse of that day wins. Note I did say mostly...not always for sure. But, great horses tend to make their own way. No matter what, you have to admit, it's a great race and even if someone bets the favorite, like I did last year, the payoffs are always really good.
Randy Baker More than 1 year ago
Exactly .Look at how many return to win the Preakness..By the end of the grueling Derby race plus the crowd.,the cream usually rises to the top.
russell More than 1 year ago
some of the preps have been so bad. expect it to continue.
Gunner More than 1 year ago
Sorry, if I offended anyone. I'll try to stay humble as I count my cash from this w/e. You want to bet slow horses - be my guest. To go for one more cliche "The fastest horse doesn't always win, but it is the way to bet." I believe Pittsburgh Phil said that one. As a parameter: 1:45 for 8.5 and 1:51 for 9f is kinda a top end. Poly not withstanding. Good luck with the slow ones. I'd say go jump in the Ocean, but that might be too much of a hint! haha
tommy More than 1 year ago
You are right and wrong!!!!!! You are right in the sense that distance and time only matter but the fastest horse always wins!!! I calculate vo2 max and I use distance time and weight to calculate vo2 max and the horse that usually has the fastest times carry more weight usually always wins!!! The fastest horses that ran 1 1/16 between 1:40-1:43 are international star, ocean, firing line, Dortmund, carpe diem, daredevil, and Texas red!! Metaboss ran 1 1/8 @1:49 which means he has the highest vo2 max and is the horse to beat at kentucky derby!
Capo Capo More than 1 year ago
Funny Steve Haskin just wrote an article on this very subject. I recommend you read it on BH. He out lined out slow final preps don't really have a big impact at all. Ie.. Spectacular Bid - Blue Grass Stakes 1:50 2/5th Swaps- SA Derby 1:50 Majestic Prince- SA Derby 1:49 3/5th Secretariat - 2nd in the wood, 1:50 Seattle Slew - Wood 1:49 Easy Goer- Wood 1:50 Unbridled - Florida Derby 1:52 Orb - Florida Derby 1:50 2/5th Canonero II - Venezuela Prep 9 furlongs 1:54 4/5th Thunder Gulch - Bluegrass 1:49, F.Derby 1:49 Monarchos - Florida Derby 1:49 There is many more who ran slow final preps prior to their derby run.
Capo Capo More than 1 year ago
3 horses who ran the fastest Kentukcy Derby ran a very slow final prep. Northern Dancer - Bluegrass Stakes 1:50 Secretariat - 2nd Wood Memorial 1:50 2/5th Monarchos - Florida Derby 1:50 Easy Goer Second in the Derby - Wood memorial 1:50 Swale - Florida Derby 1:49 the list goes on trust me. Times in final preps mean jack.
Capo Capo More than 1 year ago
Red 3rd in the Wood......Very slow race. Angle light won in 1:49 3/5th.
Mitch McMahon More than 1 year ago
Pretty disappointed that Metaboss isn't on the list. Looked a lot more promising than Prospect Park
Mitch McMahon More than 1 year ago
Actually Propect Park looks good. Had him mixed up with Private Prospect. Sill like to see the new Boss. He'll win the SA Derby.
tommy More than 1 year ago
Hi Mitch, metaboss on this list is 5-2 ( all others category), which means if you bet all others, if another horse beats any horse on that list, you automatically win!!! That's a nice bet!! Prospect park is an amazing horse and he's better than firing line and Dortmund!! Private prospect was an amazing long shot!! I'm a huge fan of him because every time he races he's a longshot and I always win!!! Last time I bet prospect park in south west and I bet $100 win, $100 place, $100 show and then I bet him only 4th in superfecta for $2 and if he comes 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th I automatically win and he came 4th in southwest!!!! I bet him in all his career starts and got him each time!!
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
Gunner, I have to respectfully completely disagree with you. First off, time means absolutely nothing. Period. I've been betting on this sport for over 50 years and I admit it took me about 3 decades to finally become a consistent winning horse player....and I can tell you without a doubt final times and other numbers involved in a winning race mean absolutely nothing in handicapping. I could go on with interior fractions, as they can show you who the speed is and such, but just saying that final time handicappers lose in the long run. It really comes down to finding the horse that is going off at higher odds than his chance of winning, and I can tell you who they ran against is far more important than how fast did the animal run. By the way, 2:06 is not going to win the Kentucky Derby this year...but, I don't care if they run slower or faster...the key is to be in front when they pass the wire the 2nd time. I truly with you the best of luck.
Bob More than 1 year ago
Thank you Frank , totally agree. You name me one yacht should've won and I'll name ten that did and shouldn't have based off times. Yep
tommy More than 1 year ago
Frank I have to completely disagree with you!! I like you as a person but time and distance mean everything!!! Using time and distance and weight, I can do a rough estimate on vo2 max and see which horse is fit!! I also look at workouts too to make sure horse is in shape!! What gunner is saying is true and upstart who ran 1 1/16 dirt needs to improve if he wants to win!! Right now international star ran 1 1/16 dirt @ 1:43 on a cold windy day on a heavy track which means if he were to run at Santa Anita he can do 1:40 easy! Right now the best horses are Dortmund, firing line, metaboss, international star, carpe diem, dare devil, Ocho Ocho Ocho, ocean knight, and Texas red!!! Those horses I listed ran 1 1/16 between 1:40 - 1:43 and metaboss ran 1 1/8 @ 1:49 which shows he has the highest fitness levels and is the horse to beat right now.
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
I've gotta admit...I love your enthusiasm Tommy. Good luck to you!
tommy More than 1 year ago
Did u like any of those horses I listed above ??? Ocean knight, firing line, Dortmund, international star, metaboss, Texas red, Ocho Ocho Ocho, carpe diem, daredevil
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
Yes, I like them all. Mostly of those I like Dortmund and Firing Line. Texas Red is a monster, but I'm worried he is going to be rushed after he heals to make the Derby, which would be a mistake in my opinion. But, if they take their time, he really is a great horse. Ocho Ocho Ocho will be the best sprinter, I like him, but I don't think he can win going 1 1/4.