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American Pharoah, Dortmund Kentucky Derby Future Wager favorites
American Pharoah and Dortmund are the top morning-line choices behind the mutuel field in Pool 3 of the 2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opens Friday at noon Eastern for a three-day run.
The field, the 24th or “all others” entry, closed as the 3-5 favorite in Pool 1, which ran Nov. 28-30, and was the 5-2 choice in Pool 2 (Feb. 6-8).
For Pool 3, Churchill Downs linemaker Mike Battaglia has pegged the field at 3-1, with American Pharoah and Dortmund next at 8-1 each. Both colts are based in Southern California with trainer Bob Baffert. Carpe Diem and Texas Red are next on the morning line at 12-1, followed by four horses at 15-1: Far From Over, Khozan, Ocean Knight, and Upstart.
Pool 3 coincides with the only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager to be offered by Churchill this year. The Derby pool closes Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern, and the Oaks pool at 6:30.
For the Oaks, the field is the 5-2 morning-line choice, with Take Charge Brandi the lowest individual interest at 6-1. Condo Commando and I’m a Chatterbox are next at 8-1 each.
There are five new names in Derby Pool 3, which comes just three weeks after Pool 2: Bolo, Danzig Moon, Far From Over, Keen Ice, and War Story. Out from Pool 2 are Competitive Edge, Frosted, Gorgeous Bird, Imperia, and J S Bach.
Twelve horses have been listed individually in all three pools.
Aggregate handle from the first two pools is $683,172. The all-time record for combined pools since Churchill first began offering futures in 1999 is $1,665,990, set in 2005. Pool 3 handle last year was $334,326.
Derby Pool 4 will run March 27-29.
The record handle for an Oaks pool is $126,039, set in 2013. Last year the handle was $81,234.
As with any pari-mutuel wager, odds are not locked in until the pool closes. There are no refunds.
Real-time odds and exacta will-pays are available on monitors at tracks and wagering outlets where futures are offered, as well as on kentuckyderby.com.
Minimum wagers are $2 to win and $2 for exactas, although $1 boxes or part-wheels may be used to reach that $2 exacta minimum.
This is the 17th year for the future wager. A single Oaks pool was added in 2003, and exacta wagering was added in 2009. In the case of field horses filling both exacta slots, the next-best finish by a separately listed horse will count toward the winning combination.
Lineups are chosen by John Asher of Churchill, Ed DeRosa of Brisnet, and freelance racing writer Gary West.
Results are predicated on the 141st Oaks and Derby at Churchill on May 1 and 2, respectively.
|No.||Horse (Trainer)||Pool 1 odds||Pool 2 odds||Pool 3 M/L|
|1||American Pharoah (B. Baffert)||12-1||10-1||8-1|
|2||Bolo (C. Gaines)||3-5 (field)||5-2 (field)||50-1|
|3||Carpe Diem (T. Pletcher)||15-1||12-1||12-1|
|4||Danzig Moon (M. Casse)||3-5 (field)||5-2 (field)||50-1|
|5||Daredevil (T. Pletcher)||48-1||40-1||30-1|
|6||Dortmund (B. Baffert)||9-1||10-1||8-1|
|7||El Kabeir (J. Terranova)||74-1||39-1||30-1|
|8||Far From Over (T. Pletcher)||3-5 (field)||5-2 (field)||15-1|
|9||Far Right (R. Moquett)||3-5 (field)||48-1||20-1|
|10||Firing Line (S. Callaghan)||3-5 (field)||35-1||20-1|
|11||International Star (M. Maker)||3-5 (field)||44-1||20-1|
|12||Itsaknockout (T. Pletcher)||3-5 (field)||30-1||20-1|
|13||Keen Ice (D. Romans)||3-5 (field)||5-2 (field)||50-1|
|14||Khozan (T. Pletcher)||3-5 (field)||25-1||15-1|
|15||Lord Nelson (B. Baffert)||72-1||41-1||30-1|
|16||Mr. Z (W. Lukas)||47-1||44-1||50-1|
|17||Ocean Knight (K. McLaughlin)||3-5 (field)||18-1||15-1|
|18||Ocho Ocho Ocho (J. Cassidy)||29-1||26-1||20-1|
|19||Prospect Park (C. Sise)||3-5 (field)||35-1||30-1|
|20||Texas Red (K. Desormeaux)||14-1||9-1||12-1|
|21||The Great War (W. Ward)||72-1||40-1||30-1|
|22||Upstart (R. Violette)||53-1||12-1||15-1|
|23||War Story (T. Amoss)||3-5 (field)||5-2 (field)||30-1|
|24||Field (all others)||3-5||5-2||3-1|
|No.||Horse (Trainer)||Churchill Downs M/L|
|1||Anegela Renee (T. Pletecher)||30-1|
|2||Birdatthewire (D. Romans)||20-1|
|3||Callback (B. Baffert)||12-1|
|4||Condo Commando (R. Rodriguez)||8-1|
|5||Cristina's Journey (D. Romans)||30-1|
|6||Ekati's Phaeton (W. Kaplan)||20-1|
|7||Eskerformoney (T. Pletcher)||20-1|
|8||Fantastic Style (B. Baffert)||30-1|
|9||Feathered (T. Pletcher)||20-1|
|10||Forever Unbridled (D. Stewart)||30-1|
|11||I'm a Chatterbox (L. Jones)||8-1|
|12||Light the City (J. Hollendorfer)||30-1|
|13||Lovely Maria (L. Jones)||30-1|
|14||Luminance (B. Baffert)||50-1|
|15||Oceanwave (W. Catalano)||50-1|
|16||Perchance (K. McLaughlin)||30-1|
|17||Puca (B. Mott)||20-1|
|18||Sarah Sis (I. Mason)||30-1|
|19||Sensitively (P. D'Amato)||50-1|
|20||Shook Up (S. Asmussen)||30-1|
|21||Sweet Corine (S. McGaughey)||30-1|
|22||Take Charge Brandi (W. Lukas)||6-1|
|23||Wonder Gal (L. Gyarmati)||50-1|
|24||Field (all others)||5-2|
It is tempting to make KY Derby Future bets, however it would be really more attractive if this bet had a LOWER TAKEOUT. There is no reason that CDI should use a regular take on this bet. For this bet, whatever the takeout is becomes pure profit for CDI. CDI should realize that it would achieve so much more handle if the rate was 8-10%. Something to think about.
So when are PPs going live on this?
I think I have the winning horse now. Won't say which one lol but seems to be offering a lot of value and I think will go off as favorite when KD starts. Wouldn't it be awesome if this had only 5-10% takeout. This bet would be so much better but I still make it for the sweat and a reason to watch the derby prep races.
Keep in mind that the KD futures pools will payout just 15% of the take in handle. Just 15%. It is NOT an advisable bet.
time of the 1 and 1/8 preps has a little to do with handicapping but not too much (if that were the case the sunland derby winner would be dominant every year). I usually look at the final furlong time for each 1 and 1/8 prep to see who is tiring and who is strong at the distance
When 20 horses break from the gate on May 2, side swiping , banging into each other , clipping heels and best my held back pinched to avoid all that don't tell me you handicapped a winner. Oh I forgot weaving thru traffic cleanly . The derby has tons to do with luck.
some of the preps have been so bad. expect it to continue.
Sorry, if I offended anyone. I'll try to stay humble as I count my cash from this w/e. You want to bet slow horses - be my guest. To go for one more cliche "The fastest horse doesn't always win, but it is the way to bet." I believe Pittsburgh Phil said that one. As a parameter: 1:45 for 8.5 and 1:51 for 9f is kinda a top end. Poly not withstanding. Good luck with the slow ones. I'd say go jump in the Ocean, but that might be too much of a hint! haha
Pretty disappointed that Metaboss isn't on the list. Looked a lot more promising than Prospect Park
Gunner, I have to respectfully completely disagree with you. First off, time means absolutely nothing. Period. I've been betting on this sport for over 50 years and I admit it took me about 3 decades to finally become a consistent winning horse player....and I can tell you without a doubt final times and other numbers involved in a winning race mean absolutely nothing in handicapping. I could go on with interior fractions, as they can show you who the speed is and such, but just saying that final time handicappers lose in the long run. It really comes down to finding the horse that is going off at higher odds than his chance of winning, and I can tell you who they ran against is far more important than how fast did the animal run. By the way, 2:06 is not going to win the Kentucky Derby this year...but, I don't care if they run slower or faster...the key is to be in front when they pass the wire the 2nd time. I truly with you the best of luck.