04/18/2012 4:22PM

2012 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 20

Coady Photography
Based on his impressive win in the Arkansas Derby, Bodemeister is now the 9-2 favorite on Daily Racing Form's advance line for the Kentucky Derby.

Bodemeister rocketed to the top of the charts following his overpowering victory in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. He was so impressive that Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, has made him the 9-2 favorite on his future line for the May 5 Kentucky Derby. Dullahan, who rallied strongly to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, is down to 10-1 this week after being 30-1 a week ago.

Wrote was removed from consideration for the Derby, so he is the lone defection from last week’s top 20 list. Hansen, the co-third choice at 6-1 on Watchmaker’s line last week, is now the co-fifth choice at 10-1 after finishing second in the Blue Grass. Union Rags, Creative Cause, Gemologist, I’ll Have Another, and Alpha all had their odds raised just a tick to account for the price on Bodemeister.

Castaway has a chance to vault into the top 20 for earnings in graded stakes races if he can capture the Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland. Trinniberg is not on the Derby Watch list, because his connections are leaning against the race, but he has enough money to run should they reconsider. If Castaway does not win, and Trinniberg stays out, then Reveron, the Florida Derby runner-up, would be one defection away from making the field.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 contenders | Matz unsure where Union Rags should work]

Kevin Potts More than 1 year ago
Thank you Bodemiester for beating a host of Arkansas dogs and looking good doing it, you have made tools like MW practically wet their pants over you. You have made competent handicappers able to get better mutual payoffs.
FMeatball More than 1 year ago
ROUSING SERMON will rise victorious at the end !!!! xxxxxxxx
Tommy De Rouville More than 1 year ago
For those of you , who don't know the difference between a race horse and a tractor. Hansen is the horse for the derby.
Douglas More than 1 year ago
Not too Concern reguarding Mike Watchmaker opinion at this point of the game for the KENTUCKY DERBY . I never have believed much into second guessing ! My point is : Two months ago , MW did all the talking in reguards of his opinion of how great - awesome GEMOLOGIST , BODEMEISTER were . I agreed also that they both desrved to be noticed . Then afew weeks ago , when push came to shove , M W decided to lean towards other Colts in the Wood Memorial and did not pick GEMOLOGIST as his Winning pick hummmmmmmmm . Last week , the same thing . M W went away from BODEMEISTER by picking other Colts to Win the Arkansas Derby . So , by my point of view at this stage reguarding M W , I did not like how he had built up his listeners so far , only to leave them some-what confused in M W wisdom . I Myself believe in my way of thinking . I do not follow other analysis selections nor advice much - without doing my own follow up home work , then if the shoe fits - then I wear it . It does no matter to me like W O W W W W Look who M W has on top now ! IF GEMOLOGIST - BODEMEISTER WAS TO BE TRUE ( ALL THAT ) M W would have never gotten off neither . So to all readers - be very carefull in what you see and believe
Wendy Parrish More than 1 year ago
Gomez is going to "nose" out Union Rags. It will be the BC Classic all over again.
OwenJ More than 1 year ago
This Derby is so set up for Creative Cause! For those who can truly analyse horse-racing, look at his steady preparation and the last race he ran and should have won. The poor ride plus the experiment with blinkers didn't help. My safe quinella for the derby is Creative Cause/Gemologist!
Douglas More than 1 year ago
Owen J , at this stage , it looks possible huh ! I myself like CREATIVE CAUSE to make noise in the Derby . But as to WIN the Derby : everyone has to really pay close attention to ONE SITUATION if not anything else : WEST COAST COLTS vs KENTUCKY DERBY . For what-ever reason , these Colts just dont produce WINNERS . Very mind boggling too ! Because there have been M A N Y that have been even close to being the favorite - then whammmmmmmmmm where is this Colt . Again , I like CREATIVE CAUSE as a handfull of my Colts that I have been focusing on for the Derby . But to be honest , when push comes to shove - I Already know in my heart that I probably will not put CREATIVE CAUSE any better than ( 2nd Place ) at this stage . The WEST COAST COLTS MUST PROVE TO ME F I R S T . Good Luck in the Derby Owen J
Little t or robert jay More than 1 year ago
well people look at the numbers i mean bode has posted 100 beyers in every race not even the horse of the year last year or the year before that has done that n god so we even look at the 3yo's this year or the last 3or 4 i mean 100 beyers where the norm in the past for good horses rags has yet to break 100 numbers dont lie in horse racing n he did that with easly smith had never asked him......
Martin Zuniga More than 1 year ago
take charge indy! Calvin Borel wins number 4!
Lc Catoggio More than 1 year ago
BODE?? ur wrong!! cant hang up a 48+ half clip in the DERBY!!!!!!!
James P More than 1 year ago
Dullahan is a sucker horse. He got trounced in the Breeder's Cup the one time he tried dirt. I hope they pound this horse in Lou-ville. Everyone loves a closer. This ain't the Keeneland rubber. This is DIRT, braus!
Allen Joyner More than 1 year ago
I agree. This looks to be a terrific 3 yr old crop. I believe there are 10 very good colts, any of whom could win. Right now, I prefer Union Rags, Gemologist and Alpha.
Douglas More than 1 year ago
Food for Thought James P : Getting Trounced in the B C J means very little at the age of 2 . Being in that GROUP OF ELITE just might mean everything . I Would Go As Far As Saying In My Opinion ( THERE ARE NO SUCKER COLTS ) When You Have Reached This Stage Of The KENTUCKY DERBY !