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05/04/2012 7:40PM
2012 Kentucky Derby: Union Rags early favorite; Oaks/Derby daily double will pays
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LOUISVILLE, Ky. - At 6-1, Union Rags is a slight favorite for Saturday’s 138th Kentucky Derby through 7:20 p.m. Eastern on Friday. The total includes only money bet ontrack at Churchill Downs. The pool was $108,501.
Take Charge Indy, the Florida Derby winner, and Hansen, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, are listed at 7-1. Bodemeister, the Arkansas Derby winner, and Gemologist, undefeated winner of the Wood Memorial, are both listed at 8-1.
[KENTUCKY DERBY: Past performances, video previews, latest news]
Union Rags is a stronger favorite in the Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby daily double wager, which got started Friday when Believe You Can, a 13-1 shot who returned $29.60, won the Oaks. A Believe You Can/Union Rags double would return $208.20.
The pool for the Oaks/Derby double was $2,351,411.
The complete set of early Derby odds are in parentheses followed by the double will pays:
1. Daddy Long Legs: (26-1); $1,788.60
2.Optimizer: (31-1); $2,415
3. Take Charge Indy: (7-1); $617.20
4. Union Rags: (6-1); $208.60
5. Dullahan: (10-1); $370.60
6. Bodemeister: (8-1); $276.20
7. Rousing Sermon: (18-1); $2,436.60
8. Creative Cause: (12-1); $389.60
9. Trinniberg: (40-1); $2,239.80
10. Daddy Nose Best: (14-1); $483.20
11. Alpha: (22-1); $537.80
12. Prospective: (69-1); $2,588.60
13. Went the Day Well: (20-1); $867.30
14. Hansen: (7-1); $662
15. Gemologist: (8-1); $338
16. El Padrino: (34-1); $937.20
17. Done Talking: (34-1); $2,735.80
18. Sabercat: (39-1); $1,676.20
19. I’ll Have Another: (17-1); $731.20
20. Liaison: (60-1); $3,224.60
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do you specifically need to play the daily double- or can you still win it if the numbers comes out that way? Does this make sense? My friend played 19,1. That's a daily double, but she didn't specify it that way, can she still collect the money?
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Horses like alpha, gemologist and take charge indy are all throw outs, just not fast enough. Matz had no intention to have UR cranked for the FL derby and hes been working up a strporm at Churchill. If the track is close to neutral Bodiemeister will be extremely dangerous regardless of Tinniberg. Anyone thinking he needs a super fast track to excel had their eyes closed during he Ark Derby. That track certainly was NOT speed favoring and he ran a race good enough to win the Oaklawn Handicap by 5 lengths clear. Training up a storm at Churchill and anyone who bets against him heavily better hope they get lucky and he gets into traffic trouble early because if he breaks clean and gets goodp position near the front, they will all be looking at his tail through the Churchill stretch. War Emblem did not win because of a souped up trackeither, thats just plain false. War Emblem won because he was the pure fastest horse in that race and he was permitted to waltz an opening half in 47 and 6 furlongs in 1:11 and change on an easy lead. Once they let him do that it was all over.
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If the track plays like it did yesterday I have no shot and Bode will head To Pimlico sooth Triple Crown dreams. If the track plays fair aid some moisture the bankroll will bee good aid either El Padrino Alpha or The magnificent looking Take Charge Indy in the winners circle.
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I dont think UR got a good draw,reading the reactions from Matz he thought so initially then he changed his perception.I think his first thought was correct.After what happened in the Florida Derby I know they didnt want to draw inside.If Trinni Bode Hansen Gem IHA break they will be cutting infront of the insiders.If TCI and UR jockeys try to use their mounts early they have already been taken out of their game.TCI is a long striding colt that covers a lot of ground fluidly with his strides he dosent have the quickness that Trinni,Bode and Hansen do.Gem and IHA will cut across if they break because otherwise there at risk of being farther behind than they would like and taken out of their game.
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I just can't see Union Rags getting a good trip. He's got horses in the 3 and 6 hole on either side of him that are going to be pushing for the front. This field is loaded with stalker types who are going to be looking for that spot in 7th or 8th position. UR is going to get the worst of that and be forced to the rail or close to it. Take Charge Indy will be in front of him going around the track and with Borel riding him, there will most likely be no rail run like UR got in the Florida Derby.
I'm not tossing him out of all bets because he will be running at the end. I won't play him on top though. Hat's off to him if he wins, because he will have to be much the best to overcome that post position.
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I have seen today that some people didn't see a bias. Man, I didn't see a soul today come from too far off the pace. Glad I took horses with tactical speed tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Bodemeister (who I don't have on top) win this in a walk.
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I was in a rush and mistakenly left Union Rags off my super ticket.
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if theres any rain tommorow El Padrino will be a huge threat....
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Was liking Optimizer for a longshot but after I see Alpha not too much lower at 22-1 might have to jump ship
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Souped up speedwayy for Bode tomorrow track not playing fair
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