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LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Projected favorites Bodemeister and Union Rags avoided landing post positions to the extreme inside or outside when in Wednesday afternoon’s post draw for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
The former, the Churchill Downs morning-line favorite at 4-1, drew post 6, while Union Rags, the 9-2 second choice, has post 4. Daily Racing Form National Handicapper Mike Watchmaker has Bodemeister at 9-2 and Union Rags at 5-1.
Juvenile champion Hansen may have benefited from the most from the draw, getting post 14, outside the two other principal speed horses, Bodemeister, and Trinniberg (post 9).
KENTUCKY DERBY: Get PPs, watch analysis video, read latest updates
Gemologist, the 6-1 third choice on the track morning line set by Mike Battaglia, also appears well drawn in the auxiliary gate in post 15, with the bulk of the speed to his inside, potentially allowing his jockey, Javier Castellano, to have his mount track those inside him.
Stuck on the fence is European invader Daddy Long Legs, who drew post 1 when just that post and post 14 were available. On the far outside in post 20 is 50-1 longshot Liaison, one of two Bob Baffert-trainees, along with Bodemeister.
In a deviation from recent years, there is a horse on the also-eligible list – with the lone also-eligible being My Adonis, who could draw into the field if a horse in the body of the field is scratched before 9 a.m. Eastern Friday.
Two horses will add blinkers in the Kentucky Derby: Liaison and Went the Day Well.
Kentucky Derby (G1), Post Time: 6:24 ET
Purse: $2,000,000; 1 1/4 miles
Post |
Horse |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Watchmaker Odds |
ML Odds |
|
|
Daddy Long Legs |
A. O'Brien |
C. O'Donoghue |
30-1 |
30-1 |
|
|
Optimizer |
D.W. Lukas |
J. Court |
50-1 |
50-1 |
|
|
Take Charge Indy |
P. Byrne |
C. Borel |
15-1 |
15-1 |
|
|
Union Rags |
M. Matz |
J. Leparoux |
5-1 |
9-2 |
|
|
Dullahan |
D. Romans |
K. Desormeaux |
12-1 |
8-1 |
|
|
Bodemeister |
B. Baffert |
M. Smith |
9-2 |
4-1 |
|
|
Rousing Sermon |
J. Hollendorfer |
J. Lezcano |
50-1 |
50-1 |
|
|
Creative Cause |
M. Harrington |
J. Rosario |
6-1 |
12-1 |
|
|
Trinniberg |
B. Parboo |
W. Martinez |
50-1 |
50-1 |
|
|
Daddy Nose Best |
S. Asmussen |
G. Gomez |
20-1 |
15-1 |
|
|
Alpha |
K. McLaughlin |
R. Maragh |
15-1 |
15-1 |
|
|
Prospective |
M. Casse |
L. Contreras |
50-1 |
30-1 |
|
|
Went The Day Well |
H.G. Motion |
J. Velazquez |
30-1 |
20-1 |
|
|
Hansen |
M. Maker |
R. Dominguez |
10-1 |
10-1 |
|
|
Gemologist |
T. Pletcher |
J. Castellano |
8-1 |
6-1 |
|
|
El Padrino |
T. Pletcher |
R. Bejarano |
20-1 |
20-1 |
|
|
Done Talking |
H. Smith |
S. Russell |
50-1 |
50-1 |
|
|
Sabercat |
S. Asmussen |
C. Nakatani |
30-1 |
30-1 |
|
|
I'll Have Another |
D. O'Neill |
M. Gutierrez |
15-1 |
12-1 |
|
|
Liaison |
B. Baffert |
M. Garcia |
50-1 |
50-1 |
|
|
My Adonis (AE) |
K. Breen |
E. Trujillo |
50-1 |
50-1 |
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Seems like the track was speed biased for most of the day. Any thoughts about how the rain might affect it and how it will be tomorrow?
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Since the KD coincides with Cinco de Mayo this year, maybe I should place a token bet on #5, Dullahan...to show. :D
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This years race is being over-handicapped and I don't see why. There is one horse, and then the rest. Union Rags is a man among boys here, and will show it Saturday. The Derby is always a tough race, but this year, not so tough. Leparoux will move with the pack, the big horse will get rolling around the turn, and it's over. Don't over-complicate things when they are not. Go to the window and make some money.
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hurchill Downs Friday, May 4, 2012 Race 11 ( # 11 Karlovy Vary) play double
$50 double # 11 Karlovy Vary
with
Kentucky Derby # 6 Bodemeister
# 16 El Padrino
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hurchill Downs Friday, May 4, 2012 Race 11 ( # 11 Karlovy Vary) play double
double # 11 Karlovy Vary
with
Kentucky Derby # 6 Bodemeister
# 16 El Padrino
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This may be wishful thinking but is there a KD handicapper that is consistently 'in the money?' This is a tough field from my perspective. I'd love to hear from someone that has 'the eye' for this.
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The x-factor on Bodemeister is having Mike Smith as the jockey. Mike likes to win big races and I'm sure he will get Bode in a good spot.
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I've been betting on the Derby since the '50s and this year is the
most difficult I've seen to handicap a winner. And the exotics? Forget it.
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6-10-11 Thats all folks!
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An early break-down from the last few days leading up to the Derby ; BODEMEISTER and GEMOLOGIST finishing No Better than 4th . And that is being nice . 19 , 18 , 17 , 16 , 15 , 10 , 9 , 7 , 6 I just dont see being in the Trifecta . I am very aware that this may seem foolish to many . Everybody has their own way of viewing the Derby . I will admit , thru my 20 years of wagering on the Derby , I have selected the Winner 7 times ............ I honestly believe the easiest part of the Derby is getting the feel of whom belongs , and dont get all caught up into a Colt that you may have been following thru-out the last past year and a half ! The Derby has an Act of its own . At the stable areas in the morning is a huge factor , with their eating and drinking normally . Just so much to witness from the inside of the stables . Just Food For Thought - when ya see UNION RAGS out on the track during the post parade , and during warm ups , dont be fooled by seeing that UNION RAGS looks washed up , swetting ! This will happen come Saturday . That will be nothing to be alarm about . That is just him .
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LOVE TO RUN was rarin' to go first out in two months, so much so that he rocketed through a six-furlong split of 1:08.79 seconds - faster than Cross Traffic in the Westchester at the same one-mile distance a few days earlier; back-to-back Belmont wins last year included one rallying from next-to-last, so he may make good use of outside draw to track COLIZEO. The latter drops to same second-level condition where he won big first off R-Rod claim; reunited with Jose Ortiz, who was aboard for that score on wet track.
