December 23, 2004
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December 20, 2004
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ANALYSIS
By Michael Hammersly

Sixth Race
1. Power Boy 2. Awesome Dividend 3. Spriggzee
POWER BOY came back after 3+ months on the bench with a super victory here Dec. 1 over $50K claimers. It wasn't just that he won but it was the way he won, geared down. Now Ellis gives you a big thumbs-up by moving him up to a spot where he can't be claimed away...and you already know he loves it here (4-2-0-1). Up the ladder. Of course, he better be peaking because AWESOME DIVIDEND looms a huge threat. The Baffert runner was huge at DMR, got 3 months off but came back here Nov. 27 with a super effort only to catch a red-hot El Don. He posted a 99 Beyer and it wasn't enough. Anything near a repeat of that effort will be tough for these others to counter. SPRIGGZEE returned after over 4 months on the bench with a fine runner-up effort vs. $25K foes. It's good to see he's moved back up into allowance ranks, and his run was flattered as the horse he couldn't quite fend off latet last time (Chinkapin) came right back to win here last week.

Seventh Race
1. Belleski 2. Katdogawn 3. Midwife
BELLESKI is one tough customer and off her fine allowance win Nov. 3 here she figured to be a good fit in the G1 Matriarch at the end of the month. Instead, her connections opted to freshen her up and point for this. You don't win 8 of 15 by accident and with her versatility she figures to get another great trip and be tough to handle. She best be on her game because KATDOGAWN is back to defend her crown. She won this race last year in impressive and spent most of this year facing the best of her division, often getting real close. She's been freshened after a poor run in the BC Filly & Mare Turf and if back on her game looms a huge threat. MIDWIFE has never faced this caliber but the NoCal-based filly has turned into a tiger in recent months, rattling off 3 straight huge wins on the BM turf. Sure, the water's deeper here and she's never before shipped out of NoCal but if she holds her form or even improves her quality speed makes her an interesting theft proposition.

Eighth Race
1. Rashard Lamar 2. Gilded Bertrando 3. Irish Ty
Not only did RASHARD LAMAR come back runnin', but it appears he came back better than ever. The O'Neill trainee hadn't been seen in almost 15 months, but off that layoff, first time vs. winners ($20K claimers) he dueled early then powered hom to win going away with a 96 Beyer. That was heady stuff and now O'Neill gives you a big thumbs-up as he moves this guy up to a spot where he can't be claimed away...and it's not the toughest bunch in the world, either. GILDED BERTRANDO brings plenty of speed to this and improved nicely last time on this track at this game at this level in just his 2nd start after over 10 months on the bench. He figures in it every step of the way, though note Baze who was up for those 2 return races this time ends up on RASHARD LAMAR. IRISH TY is game and tough and has not only run some good races on this track but also at this level. If the top 2 get a little too eager too soon this guy could be the one to pick up the pieces. He's no stone-closer either...he has the speed to hound the top 2 all the way.

Ninth Race
1. Lobster Ontuesdays 2. Irish Mafia 3. House of Danzing
This is a strict pedigree play. LOBSTER ONTUESDAYS is by Unusual Heat who has been tremendous in terms of turf performance (22% first time on turf). Not only that, but this one's lone sibling to race (a full brother) won the only time he tried turf so far. LOBSTER ONTUESDAYS should benefit from that debut outing, there's no panicky drop by Abrams and the 2 works since are quite nice. This could be quite a way to end the meet and maybe pay for all those Xmas presents. IRISH MAFIA perked up at 29-1 with a big try in her first turf attempt. It's also worth noting that her good effort came vs. OPEN straight maidens...today she's facing Cal-breds only. HOUSE OF DANZING showed fine speed in her debut at DMR and didn't exactly cave in. That run was flattered as that heat produced 2 next-out winners. Her sire won the Arlington Million so turf should be right up her alley. It's more a matter of whether she's set for her best after nearly 5 months off.