Withers Stakes

Analysis by Dave Litfin

First Race
1. Metaurus 2. Giopi 3. Jax Maxx

METAURUS is usually much closer to the early pace than he was in return to this circuit, when steadied early and along late to miss third by a nose; projects for outside stalking trip off HEART OF THE DERBY and VALUE ADDED TAX. The lone turnback proposition is GIOPI, who has never run at less than a mile on dirt, but showed improvement with a middle move most recently; any figures from first half of 2011 would be good here. JAX MAXX has that one stickout Beyer of 74 first out at the meet; however, the deep closer's only sprint win was NJ-bred maiden claimer in the slop.

Second Race
1. Lunar Victory 2. Southbeachsandy 3. Most Happy Fella

LUNAR VICTORY is probably going to have to contend with a faster pace than first two U.S. starts on wet inner tracks, but appeared to have plenty left getting through N1x condition at 4-5; taken to score right back despite conceeding weight to all. SOUTHBEACHSANDY is a hard-knocking sort with seven exacta finishes from nine starts on fast dirt; led to final yards last out until run down by Stud Muffin, who was notching seventh win on NYRA circuit in 2011. MOST HAPPY FELLA has speed and the rail, and is capable of holding quite stubbornly up front, as he did in two Spa starts last summer; claimed by sharp outfit.

Third Race
1. Temecula Creek 2. Close to the Vest 3. Perfect Drive

TEMECULA CREEK recorded fastest figure in over a year to draw away from starter allowance sprinters at Parx, finally getting on the board with a 2011 win New Year's Eve; must run down CLOSE TO THE VEST. The latter has developed knack for surprising people, with last four wins coming at odds of 7-1 to 17-1; may get pressure from both flanks drawn in between Team Asmussen reclaim POPPA'S PICK and NO DETOUR. Coming off three consecutive wins, it's hard not to give PERFECT DRIVE a long look, particularly if he can rebound to career-best performance first time over the track.

Fourth Race
1. Steele Road 2. Inflation Target 3. Mr. Beer Goggles

STEELE ROAD improved sharply first time on a fast track, adding Lasix & blinkers and narrowly missing to Beggarthyneighbor, who returned to win $75k Dancing Count Stakes at Laurel last week; must contend with INFLATION TARGET once again. That one was part of 2-5 entry with Beggarthyneighbor, and finished a promising third despite being bumped at break and racing greenly in the stretch; improved workout Sunday. MR. BEER GOGGLES looms strong pace factor again, after setting pace to stretch on fast and sloppy tracks in January; back quickly second time off a claim.

Fifth Race
1. Hook and Lateral 2. Digital Joe 3. Mr Rosenthal

Tough to be overly confident about HOOK AND LATERAL, who hasn't been out since a couple of odds-on defeats in October; be that as it may, anything close to that Aug. 5 effort - his first start in blinkers and last start on a fast track - would make him awfully tough against these. DIGITAL JOE tries for the 18th time and gets some weight off; consistently faster than most of today's opponents. MR ROSENTHAL turns back after setting pace for 6fs going two turns; lightly raced and eligible to factor strongly with minimal improvement. S. Z. MADISON, 7-year-old maiden with 0-for-24 slate, is the lone entrant coming off an in-the-money finish.

Sixth Race
1. Nicole H 2. Golden Mystery 3. Streaker

It's been over a year since NICOLE H was hitting the century mark on Beyers, but she successfully defended Interborough title despite some anxious moments by edging WINNING IMAGE to go 3 for 3 on the inner overall; capable of better second time back. GOLDEN MYSTERY put up four 90+ figures at Parx, Monmouth and Gulfstream in 2011, among them two clear-cut decisions over Winning Image - the first coming off a similar layoff; trainer change for return. STREAKER has lost only twice on fast tracks, in Grade 1 and Grade 2 company; sharp works at Payson Park, ran big fresh at Belmont last spring.

Seventh Race
1. Pearl of Wisdom 2. Zetterholm 3. Wistful Wildcat

Against 3-5 Gulfstream shipper Panthro first time out, PEARL OF WISDOM was bumped at the break and finished well enough to wind up just 1 1/2 lengths back of runner-up; colt by Wood winner Bob and John is among the horses Flying Zee held onto, and stretches out from rail in maiden special that lacks speed. ZETTERHOLM rallied wide and went clear for second to odds-on Readytodefer in first local start off a private purchase; switches from double bug to dual Eclipse winner. WISTFUL WILDCAT and RKATSITELI step up after third-place finishes in their respective bows vs. maiden claimers; each has money chances for intrarace exotic purposes.

Eighth Race
1. Calibrachoa 2. Candyman E 3. Dr Disco

CALIBRACHOA stretched record on both Aqueduct dirt tracks to 5 for 5 in Bold Ruler, before game try pushing the envelope of distance capabilities in Grade 1 Cigar Mile; entrymate CAIXA ELETRONICA as game as horses come, finished powerfully notching 16th score first time on inner. CANDYMAN E is 4 for 4 since taken over by Tony Dutrow last July, including a couple triple-digit Beyers when fresh; mate FLAT BOLD adds blinkers looking for first win in 53 weeks. DR DISCO showed new dimension rating kindly for stalk-and-pounce win while giving weight in tune-up for this; tough draw inside speedy rivals RULE BY NIGHT and DISKI DANCE.

Ninth Race
1. Alpha 2. Tiger Walk 3. Hakama

ALPHA is a work in progress after returning from two-month break to overcome bobble and wide trip in Count Fleet, but second-time Lasix user displays potentially explosive figure pattern after matching Spa debut Beyer and continues to train forwardly for hot stable; little margin for error from far outside. TIGER WALK makes seasonal bow for connections that won 2011 Count Fleet with Monzon ($14.40) off two-month absence; versatile colt won maiden turf route from post 12 before winning initial dirt start. HAKAMA is 2 for 2 in blinkers, beginning with bias-aided maiden win here Dec. 10 over Raconteur, who subsequently bounced 16 points but held desperately for maiden win; committed to lead from rail, with pressure to come HOW DO I WIN and possibly the improved New York-bred SWAG DADDY.

Tenth Race
1. Cantrushperfection 2. Hopeful Boy 3. Keechi Bullet

Well, we saw a horse win last week when dropped to $7,500 ranks off an "eased" line, so perhaps CANTRUSHPERFECTION, who went 4 for 4 in 2010 before falling on hard times, can do the same; Dutrow-Dominguez combo 42% winning proposition at Aqueduct in 2011-12. HOPEFUL BOY is obviously the one to catch, but squandered leads in last two peak-figure attempts, and has never run three consecutive races of that quality, so he could be set up for a regression; picks up weight. KEECHI BULLET hasn't won on a fast track since July '09, but was third at 6-5 only time in this cheap while against grain of Dec. 10 speed bias; threat with any kind of decent getaway.