Signature Stallion Waya Stakes

Race by Race Analysis - Saratoga pick six

By Dave Litfin

BEST BET: Dawly (8th race)

Fifth Race

1. She Be Classy 2. Tarrip 3. Gold d'Oro
If the Waya Stakes winds up on dirt at 1 3/16 miles, SHE BE CLASSY owns all four of the field's dirt wins, the latest coming in off-the-turf Rooney Memorial to begin current form cycle; non-effort in R. G. Dick from post 12 is a throw-out race. On turf, TARRIP gets some class relief after four starts vs. graded-stakes company, the latest in productive renewal of Sheepshead Bay that produced New York Stakes winner Giants Play and R. G. Dick winner Cheetah. GOLD D'ORO beat favored Tarrip when able to control the pace at Belmont last fall going 1 1/4 miles; dangerous if allowed a similar scenario. SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN need only maintain her present form to contend, but the distance is the obvious question.

Sixth Race

1. Neat Lightning 2. Fortheloveof Anna 3. Need an Angel
Claimed for $75,000 last winter, NEAT LIGHTNING plunges to $20,000 first out since two last-place finishes in the spring; the half-full view is that her best race came off workouts, Dutrow wins at 34% with layoffs of this type and meet-leading rider is on. FORTHELOVEOF ANNA was claimed for this price in February, and won her first-level statebred allowance condition two starts later; any of last four figures on fast-good-sloppy tracks stack up well. NEED AN ANGEL has won her last two six-furlong starts, earning new Beyer tops each time; closer to early pace before running down 4-5 Peaceful Town on short rest June 25.

Seventh Race

1. Launch N Relaunch 2. The Man Uptown 3. Cosmic King
Should the first leg of Wednesday's late pick-4 be switched to dirt at seven furlongs, LAUNCH N RELAUNCH ran third against grain of strong front-end bias in return from similar layoff Travers day 2010; tough spot when last seen vs. S.S. Stone, who won three more after that capped by Grade 3 Skip Away Stakes. On turf, THE MAN UPTOWN has had only one previous opportunity, that coming at Gulfstream vs. Nina Fever, who was then beaten a neck in $150k stake; class dropper has trained well locally. COSMIC KING rallied wide and finished evenly behind wire-to-wire Mutiny as the choice most recently; handles good/yielding turf. AHGOGO was hung out to dry on first turn vs. some of these opening day over a Mellon course that was highly conducive to early speed at the time; yielding turf okay.

Eighth Race

1. Dawly 2. Sam Sparkle 3. Cat Sweep
After being claimed from final start at 2, DAWLY put up 80+ Beyers in all four sprints on fast and wet tracks downstate, and was particularly sharp at Belmont, where he showed improved tactical speed; projects to be well positioned just outside DERIVATIVE down the backstretch first out for Rudy Rodriguez. SAM SPARKLE turns back to a better distance after racing in contention to top of the lane going 1 1/8 miles; race-over-the-track angle applies. CAT SWEEP controlled moderate pace winning two-turn route first time on dirt, and then wound up in tough spot vs. repeater Congo and eventual Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On ice; strong layoff stats for trainer.

Ninth Race

1. Ruffino 2. Colonialism 3. En Fuego
If this optional claiming route winds up on dirt at 1 1/8 miles, the wetter the better for RUFFINO, who upped his wet-track record to 4-2-0 from six starts before a wide trip at Finger Lakes; main competition would come from SLEVIN, the '09 Albany Stakes runner-up. On turf, COLONIALISM went well chasing hard-knocking Jimmy Simms' slow pace opening weekend; well-connected colt usually gets a share. EN FUEGO's two wins have both come at 1 1/4 miles at Belmont, but he narrowly missed this course & trip last summer; lone turf race this season a clear second to Simmard, who was beaten just a neck in the Grade 2 Bowling Green last fall. JOSHUA REYNOLDS a logical threat dropping from wide-trip Firecracker Handicap; wore down Colonialism in shorter route on good turf two back.

Tenth Race

1. Piscesbymoonlight 2. What's the Record 3. Turn Up the Music
If the nightcap becomes a seven-furlong dirt sprint, PISCESBYMOONLIGHT was edged after long battle at 3-5 when last seen mid-April; half-bro to Giant Moon (multiple stakes winner of $500k for these connections) would likely be odds-on again. On turf, the figures suggest you can throw a proverbial blanket over a handful of these maidens, several of which stretch out from sprints. Among those, WHAT'S THE RECORD could benefit from ground-saving trip; prepped for this with 7f work around two turns. TURN UP THE MUSIC, yet another last-out beaten favorite, looms pace factor with HERSHEL and OBVIOUSLY TUESDAY. The latter is entitled to move up off lone start at 2. WRITETHATDOWN displays a remarkable "up-back-up" running line on yielding turf two back; caught a very speed-favoring inner course final weekend at the Spa 2010.