San Antonio Stakes

Analysis By Brad Free
 
BEST BET: Game On Dude (7th race)    
 
First Race
1. Death Star    2. Fordham Road    3. Tiz a Trip
First post is 11 a.m.; the eight-race card will finish before Super Bowl kickoff at 3:30 p.m. Pacific. DEATH STAR ran better than the line indicates in his Dec. 26 sprint comeback. He broke slow from the rail, finished with run and galloped out in front of the field. Now he stretches out and switches to grass in a field with little speed. He can post a pace-pressing/front-running "upset." FORDHAM ROAD should win a maiden race soon, and may go favored off his good runner-up finish last out. He missed by a head in a continuation of his improving pattern. He is trained by John Sadler, who also entered TIZ A TRIP, a half-length behind 'ROAD last out. UNEX DALI has run races that put him in the hunt.  This is his first start since April.
 
Second Race
1. Roman Chic    2. Lady Alex    3. Pure Storm
ROMAN CHIC is the one to catch, again. She led gate to wire three weeks ago (third win in her last four starts), was claimed by Linda Mikus from Mike Mitchell, and catches another two-turn field without a lot of early gas. Come and catch her. LADY ALEX pressed and cracked vs. tougher in her comeback, and now drops to near the bottom while returning to a surface on which she won big a year ago. 'ALEX could get a good trip positioned juts behind the top choice. If the pacesetter falters, 'ALEX would be among the first to attack. PURE STORM could not get past the top choice last time, while continuing her habit of finishing second (four runner-up finishes since her most recent win). But she is in form, and will be grinding away late. ATTAR OF ROSE drops in class; MEMO TO KATHY stretches to a route and could keep the favorite honest up front.
 
Third Race
1. Mint Humor    2. Bull Ring    3. Stone Hot
The first try by MINT HUMOR on the downhill course was a terrific third-place finish in a fast-pace, age-restricted $40k claimer. He fought back late and missed by a neck. It makes him the deserving chalk to lead gate to wire. However, through Thursday, just five of 27 turf sprints this winter had been won by a horse that set the pace at every call. BULL RING scored a solid maiden-40 win on dirt, and promptly was claimed by Mike Pender. Although he is not for grass (Vindication gets 7 percent winners first-time turf according to Thoro-Graph), the lightly raced gelding enters in sharp form and could get a good trip sitting second behind the speed. STONE HOT will roll from behind as trainer Marty Jones tries to continue his recent hot streak on the hill. Jones has won with four of his last eight Santa Anita turf sprinters (Don Perico, Compari, Unzip Me and Dixieland Blues).
 
Fourth Race
1. Fabulous Fashion    2. Briteness    3. Saturday Nite Wish
Trainer Carla Gaines holds two aces with first-time starter FABULOUS FASHION and first-out runner-up BRITENESS. The call is the firster.  'FASHION scratched after drawing the rail Jan. 8, but she returned with three solid works since. Sired by high-percent debut stallion E Dubai (14 percent winners first out), she can come out firing. However, her stablemate BRITENESS has an experience edge. Her runner-up debut was good; she finished more than five lengths clear of third. She is quick, and might be the one to catch. SATURDAY NITE WISH broke tenth from the rail in her debut, and finished a distant third. She moves to the outside box and can improve with a race under her belt.
 
Fifth Race
1. Close to the Edge    2. Gutshot Straight    3. Adriatic Moon
In a competitive $16k claiming starter allowance, comebacker CLOSE TO THE EDGE gets the tepid nod. Claimed off a big runner-up effort at
Fairplex Park in fall, he returns for trainer Bill Spawr with a steady workout pattern and enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed in a seven-furlong sprint that is not exactly brimming with speed. GUTSHOT STRAIGHT is back on dirt after two disappointing efforts on turf and
synthetic. Based on his conventional-surface form in autumn, he figures in the hunt from the start. ADRIATIC MOON is racing in good form but unproven on dirt. GATHERATHEALTER will rally from far back, same as HIATUS. This might be the toughest race on the card.
 
Sixth Race
1. Celestial Kitten    2. Whisper Louise    3. Imperialistic Diva
An evenly matched group races one mile on grass in a N2X for fillies and mares; a case can be made for several. CELESTIAL KITTEN drops from a good runner-up finish in a minor stakes; any of her recent efforts at this one-mile distance makes her the right favorite .WHISPER LOUISE split the field in a turf sprint, and now stretches to a mile. She finished only a head behind the top choice when they met in December. IMPERIALISTIC DIVA tossed in a puzzler last out, but her N1x victory two starts back makes her a threat. ANNIVERSARY GIRL, one-two in half her 16 starts, is always close. LINDA LOU was taken off the pace in a change in tactics last time, and exploded to a sharp sprint win. She is back in peak form and a threat right back. This is a "spread" race.
 
Seventh Race
1. Game On Dude    2. Uh Oh Bango    3. Tres Borrachos
Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up GAME ON DUDE makes his 2012 debut as the class of this Grade 2, while benefitting from a pace scenario that favors his up-front style. This field includes no true speed to run with the favorite. A front-runner, 'DUDE is 3-for-3 on this track, working well for his comeback, and a likely gate-to-wire winner first start back. The only knock is price; his odds will be short. UH OH BANGO put it all together with a solid win last month in the G2 San Pasqual. He is sharp, with a pressing style that should allow him to stay within striking range of the favorite. TRES BORRACHOS is closing in the $1 million earnings mark, and will grind away late. He is a good veteran 7-year-old, though victories are infrequent (4-for-36). VICTORY PETE goes long following an odds-beating runner-up finish in a turf sprint. He should be forwardly placed, always a good position on this track.
 
Eighth Race
1. Meadow Road    2. Outta Splash    3. Knucklebuster
MEADOW ROAD returns from a seven-month layoff as the fastest horse in this maiden-20. The lowest Beyer Figure of his seven-start career (74) is better than the highest number earned by any of his rivals. However, 'ROAD is not infallible. He lost repeatedly last year at low odds, and was claimed for $50k but returns for $20k. OUTTA SPLASH looms the upsetter in his career debut for low-profile, high-return trainer Mark Tsagalakis, whose first-time starters occasionally outrun their price. KNUCKLEBUSTER has speed and benefits from the turnback from seven furlongs to six.

First-time starter CREATIVE WRITER debuts for a top stable. Finally, a Super Bowl prognostication: over 54 points.