July 6th, 2014 − Woodbine - Toronto, Canada

Queen's Plate

Queen’s Plate notes for Monday, June 30, 2014 (Woodbine press release)
Queen’s Plate Notes for Wednesday, July 2, 2014 (Woodbine press release)

Kenny Peck's 20-cent pick four

Race 9: Hate to kick off any multi-race exotic play with a favorite, but the way this sequence sets up, it seems impossible to narrow the ticket down in the later races. That means I'll have to lean on Forte Dei Marmi (#5), who won this race last year by more than six lengths. The concern is that there is not a lot of obvious speed in the field, and he could conceivably be at a pace disadvantage, but simply adding a horse like Dynamic Sky would double this ticket and effectively mark him as a horse just as probable of winning as Forte Dei Marmi. I'll use him on secondary and back-up tickets, but for these purposes, I'll single the favorite. (#5)

Race 10: Phil’s Dream (#3) is 2 for 2 on the grass, both sprints, and he comes into this Highlander Stakes in very good form, winning his last two on the main track. He's capable of running down the speed if he can stay close early on. Mr. Online (#9) has some of the better Beyers in the field and is easy to like. He was behind Something Extra last time, but the latter benefited from a loose lead, and a contested pace seems more likely today. (#3, #9)

Race 11: The Queen's Plate drew a deep field, and the race flow is not easy to plot. Most will use We Miss Artie (#6), the winner of the Plate Trial. He didn't beat Majestic Sun, a maiden, by much, but he wasn't pushed hard late, and he overcame a slow pace to do it. Tower of Texas (#12) also was hurt by the race flow there but ran well. Asserting Bear (#4) and Ami’s Holiday (#15) were only separated by a neck in the Marine Stakes. Matador (#10) impressed in his return to Woodbine last time and may be this good. The filly Lexie Lou (#14) merits respect off the Beyer she earned in the Oaks last time. (#4, #6, #10, #12, #14, #15)

Race 12: Using them all in this 10-horse field, as the general lack of turf form makes handicapping and plotting the race a guess. Hoping for something wild to round out this pick four. (ALL) The play: 5/3, 9/4, 6, 10, 12, 14, 15/ALL = 120 combinations ($24 ticket)