Lecomte Stakes

COUNTDOWN REWIND: LECOMTE STAKES

By Jeremy Plonk

Date: Saturday, January 19, 2013

Track: Fair Grounds

Kentucky Derby Points Awarded: 10-4-2-1

Distance: 1 mile and 70 yards (2 turns)

HANDICAPPERS’ RECAP: Despite four of the nine entrants in the Lecomte stretching out from sprint preps to a route, none put any pressure on the quality G1 CashCall Futurity fourth-place finisher OXBOW (D. Wayne Lukas). When a field’s classiest horse also gets a pace advantage, typically it is game over. And, boy was this ever. OXBOW widened to an 11-1/2 length score in a successful roadtrip from his Oaklawn Park winter homebase. When the stretch-out sprinters proved incapable of the task, those in pursuit became smaller in the rearview mirror. This was a nice mix of horses from various locales around North America, but the only route stakes winner in the field was Canadian challenger AVIE’S QUALITY (Josie Carroll). Many horses had distance questions, and OXBOW’s final margin likely was a product of his success and the failures of others.

ON THE CLOCK: The first three quarters in 24.44, 24.14 and 24.76 all but sealed the deal for OXBOW, who posted only 25.82 in the fourth quarter while running up the score on this field. The final time of 1:43.30 was about 8-9 lengths faster than 3-year-old fillies went in the same-day Silverbulletday Stakes. It was also about 6 lengths quicker than a 3-year-old maiden special weight earlier in the day for the colts. That said, OXBOW did his part, but his win margin of 11-1/2 lengths puts the rest of this field well-beaten in the Silverbulletday and a maiden special weight.  This tells me what the Handicapper’s Recap surmised above, just in a different way: OXBOW’s blowout was part-him and part-others floundering.

THE EYE TEST: No doubt Jon Court rode out the winner and this was not a canter through the wire, but give OXBOW credit for an outstanding gallop-out. And then he bounded back to the winner’s circle with high energy and looked like a very classy horse. He ran easily on the lead and was relaxed, showing some gears despite being in a race only against himself and the clock for most of the running -- until HEITAI (Sam Breaux) made a token effort that evaporated quickly at the quarter-pole. OXBOW showed he could travel and score, and despite missing six days of training in Arkansas since Christmas because of weather and track issues, he was on his game. As for the others, AVIE’S QUALITY and GOLDEN SOUL (Dallas Stewart) broke in a bit of a tangle, but certainly nothing to excuse the no-show, eighth-place finish for AVIE’S QUALITY in his dirt and US debut. This looked like a vulnerable favorite on paper, but even I didn’t expect that type of dud. GOLDEN SOUL recovered from the start and ran a modest second, but didn’t conjure up the visuals he did in his splendid maiden score. From maiden to graded stakes in the third start, this was a decent showing, but not stirring. Fourth-place IVE STRUCK A NERVE (Keith Desormeaux) loomed on the far turn and flattened out, something that’s become his ceiling in route races.

PROJECTING THE LECOMTE FORWARD: OXBOW could remain at his Oaklawn base and walk over for his next start in March’s G2 Rebel Stakes. While the Lecomte champ naturally would return for the G2 Risen Star and G2 Louisiana Derby, that’s not a given in this case. Oaklawn’s salty sophomore program is a proven path the past decade, and unless the Lukas barn has to split its Derby trail hopefuls to avoid one another, it just makes more sense to see this one go as the favorite for the G2 Rebel-G1 Arkansas Derby route with a three-prep season. He’s a highly legitimate horse on pedigree; his mama is sister to the great Tiznow and Budroyale. So the longer distances should suit OXBOW well. GOLDEN SOUL will benefit from more racing and the Risen Star makes all the sense in the world. Third-place FEAR THE KITTEN (Mike Maker) stays on the trail, but had no excuses and must get considerably better to be feared. The AVIE’S QUALITY camp really has to regroup, and perhaps rethink the dirt and look for races like the G3 Spiral and/or G1 Blue Grass on Polytrack. Those targets makes sense for FEAR THE KITTEN as well.