May 2nd, 2015 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby sponsored by Fasig-Tipton

Horse/Sire Watchmaker
Odds
Last Race, Result,
and Beyer
Next Likely Race,
Track, and Date
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
American Pharoah 7-2 Arkansas Derby Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Considering tight schedule to make both preps, his races have been stellar. Deserving favorite.
by Pioneerof the Nile 1st by 8, 105 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Rated kindly off lead in Ark. Derby. Has had perfect trips, but he makes his own perfect trips.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
 
Dortmund 4-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Despite losing shoe at start of race, set legit fractions, kicked clear, remained unbeaten, big fig.
by Big Brown 1st by 4 1/4, 106 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Anything can happen in a 20-horse Derby, but I like every single thing about this freakish colt.
Owner: Kaleem Shah; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia
 
Carpe Diem 10-1 Blue Grass, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Took care of business in Blue Grass. Lone toss was second in BC Juvenile. He fires every time.
by Giant's Causeway   1st by 3, 95 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: I am a little concerned about his light Beyers, but I strongly sense we haven't yet seen his best.
Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
 
Materiality 12-1 Florida Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Talented, very game in Fla. Derby, but think lack of experience catches up with him on May 2.
by Afleet Alex 1st by 1 1/2, 110 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: The unraced at 2 thing is big. But just as big is the uncertainty if he can win from off the pace.
Owner: Alto Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
 
Mubtaahij 12-1 UAE Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Estimated Beyer of 95 for UAE Derby win. Tall order to ship here and face strong group of locals.
by Dubawi   1st by 8, n/a Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Had a perfect trip and beat questionable company; a potential massive underlay in this Derby.
Owner: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum: Mike de Kock; Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
 
Upstart 12-1 Florida Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Certainly top-class, but concerned two tough races over tiring surface could cause him to regress.
by Flatter 2nd by 1 1/2, 108 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Appears well past the illness that made him miss a scheduled work; a threat on his best effort.
Owner: Ralph Evans & WinStar Farm; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
 
Firing Line 15-1 Sunland Derby, 3/22 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Thrives with time between starts. Like the way he finished up going 1 1/8 miles. Still improving.
by Line of David   1st by 14 1/4, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Crushed an empty field at Sunland, but he can really run, and he obviously flatters Dortmund.
Owner: Arnold Zetcher; Trainer: Simon Callaghan; Jockey: Gary Stevens
 
Frosted 15-1 Wood Memorial, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Wood Memorial was a big step forward. Closed into moderate pace, nice number. Dangerous.
by Tapit   1st by 2, 103 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Turned his fortunes completely around in the Wood, and got a world of education, to boot.
Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Joel Rosario
 
International Star 15-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Has improved throughout Derby preps at FG, with career-best Beyers every time. Gritty colt.
by Fusaichi Pegasus 1st by a neck, 98 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Keep expecting his streak to end, and he keeps winning, but he's winning over second-raters.
Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Miguel Mena
 
Bolo 30-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Had a compromised trip in SA Derby, but think he's a cut below these on dirt. Is best on grass.
by Temple City   3rd by 6 1/2, 95 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: This is a good colt, so that will tell you something about Dortmund. But agree turf's his thing.
Owner: Golden Pegasus Racing & Earle Mack; Trainer: Carla Gaines; Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
 
Danzig Moon 30-1 Blue Grass, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Ran on nicely for second in the Blue Grass in far better effort than TB Derby. Steadily improving.
by Malibu Moon   2nd by 3, 90 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: He must improve dramatically because he doesn't have a race that makes him a legit threat.
Owner: John Oxley; Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Julien Leparoux
 
El Kabeir 30-1 Wood Memorial, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Was closer to Frosted with three furlongs to go than at finish. Waters are getting deeper for him.
by Scat Daddy   3rd by 5 3/4, 94 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Indeed, not only is the competition much tougher now, he also is not progressing Beyer-wise.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer; John Terranova II; Jockey: Calvin Borel
 
Far Right 30-1 Arkansas Derby, 4/11 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Beat everying he could see in Ark. Derby, but American Pharoah finished in another zip code.
by Notional   2nd by 8, 92 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Didn't beat much finishing second. Hasn't come close to running fast enough to contend at CD.
Owner: Robert LaPenta & Harry Rosenblum; Trainer: Ron Moquett; Jockey: Mike Smith
 
Itsaknockout 30-1 Florida Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Absurdly tiring surface for Fla. Derby made him look worse than he is, but think he's a cut below.
by Lemon Drop Kid 4th by 21, 76 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Was exposed in the Florida Derby, and in a most unflattering way; he's not as good as these.
Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez
 
Madefromlucky 30-1 Arkansas Derby, 4/11 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Would be surprised if he ends up running, but made it into top 20 on points. Needs easier spot.
by Lookin At Lucky   4th by 9, 90 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: The hesitation to commit to the Derby even after a spot opened up for him speaks volumes.
Owner: Cheyenne Stable & Mac Nichol; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: undecided
 
Stanford 30-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Couldn’t last at 1 1/8 miles despite soft pace in La. Derby. Competition, distance tougher in Ky.
by Malibu Moon   2nd by a neck, 98 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Was crushed by Materiality before his FG start, so it makes me wonder about the La. Derby.
Owner: Stonestreet Stables, Magnier, et al; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Florent Geroux
 
Tencendur 30-1 Wood Memorial, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Turned in best race of career in Wood, but would need far more improvement to impact Derby.
by Warrior's Reward   2nd by 2, 100 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Must improve, but the fact is, he is one of only six on this list with a triple-digit last-out Beyer.
Owner: Philip Birsh; Trainer: George Weaver; Jockey: Manny Franco
 
War Story 30-1 Louisiana Derby, 3/28 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Looked like he was making steady progress until last time. Finally broke well, but had no excuse.
by Northern Afleet 3rd by 4 1/2, 91 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: His Beyer Figures haven't moved that much, so he's not progressing, and is not good enough.
Owner: Christopher Dunn & Loooch Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: Joe Talamo
 
Mr. Z 50-1 Arkansas Derby, 4/11 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Since debut win last June, he has now lost 11 straight. Never progressed from Los Al Futurity.
by Malibu Moon 3rd by 8 3/4, 90 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Having the points doesn't mean you should run; needs easier spots to rebuild his confidence.
Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
 
Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1 Blue Grass, 4/4 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Small colt couldn't handle Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon. Probably needs easier spots at this point.
by Street Sense   3rd by 5 1/2, 86 Churchill Downs, 5/2 MW: Not much doubt about that now, but he is capable of knocking out a nice living is lesser races.
Owner: D P Racing.; Trainer: Jim Cassidy; Jockey: Elvis Trujillo