May 2nd, 2015 − Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby sponsored by Fasig-Tipton

2015 Kentucky Derby Chart

Saturday's Race of the Day:

Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs

 
NUMBER HORSE / SIRE TRACK ODDS WATCHMAKER ODDS BEST BEYER JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1 50-1 90 JP: Small colt couldn't handle Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon. Appears he needs easier company, won't find it here.
  by Street Sense       MW: Hasn't run a race yet that says he can even marginally compete with the best here; in much too deep.
  Owner: D P Racing.; Trainer: Jim Cassidy; Jockey: Elvis Trujillo    
       
Carpe Diem 8-1 10-1 98 JP: Took care of business in Blue Grass. Hard to fault record, but wonder if he's improved enough from 2 to 3.
  by Giant's Causeway       MW: Knock is he hasn't really run fast yet, but he hasn't had to. Sense there is more to him than we've seen.
  Owner: WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
   
Materiality 12-1 12-1 110 JP: Talented, very game in Florida Derby, but think lack of experience will be a huge hurdle against this group.
  by Afleet Alex     MW: Won the fastest prep Beyer-wise, but the experience thing is big. Is only three starts enough foundation?
  Owner: Alto Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano  
     
Tencendur 30-1 30-1 100 JP: Turned in best race of career in Wood, but would need even more improvement to make an impact here.
  by Warrior's Reward       MW: Agree he must improve, but it's noteworthy he is only one of six here with a triple-digit last out Beyer.
  Owner: Philip Birsh; Trainer: George Weaver; Jockey: Manny Franco  
     
Danzig Moon 30-1 30-1 90 JP: Ran on nicely for second in Blue Grass in far better effort than Tampa Bay Derby. Liked his final workout.
  by Malibu Moon       MW: To this point, he seems like a horse who works better than he performs; must improve, and by a lot.
  Owner: John Oxley; Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Julien Leparoux  
     
Mubtaahij 20-1 12-1 n/a JP: Estimated Beyer Figure of 97 for UAE Derby win, in which he had a perfect trip. Tall order vs. strong locals.
  by Dubawi       MW: Does have a brilliant trainer on his side, but the first to win the Derby from Dubai will be at my expense.
  Owner: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum: Mike de Kock; Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
   
SCR El Kabeir SCR SCR 95 JP: In Wood, was closer to Frosted with 3 furlongs to go than he was at finish. Waters getting deeper for him.
  by Scat Daddy       MW: Tough colt for sure, but was exposed when he met better in the Wood; hasn't progressed Beyer-wise.
  Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer; John Terranova II; Jockey: Calvin Borel    
       
Dortmund 3-1 4-1 106 JP: Lost a shoe at start of SA Derby, set legit fractions, kicked clear, stayed unbeaten, got strong speed figure.
  by Big Brown     MW: Can win on the pace or from off it, has beaten good horses, and he dominated in his last two; my pick.
  Owner: Kaleem Shah; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia      
         
Bolo 30-1 30-1 101 JP: Had a compromised trip in SA Derby, but think he's a cut below these on dirt, and will be best on turf.
  by Temple City       MW: Turf will probably be his thing, but his last two on dirt are better than what many others here have done.
  Owner: Golden Pegasus Racing & Earle Mack; Trainer: Carla Gaines; Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
   
Firing Line 12-1 15-1 104 JP: Thrives with time between starts, has speed but has learned to relax. Has a shot at quite a generous price.
  by Line of David     MW: Close to Dortmund three months ago, but that one has really moved forward since; distance a question.
  Owner: Arnold Zetcher; Trainer: Simon Callaghan; Jockey: Gary Stevens  
     
SCR Stanford SCR SCR 98 JP: Couldn't last 1 1/8 miles in Lousiana Derby despite soft pace. Competition, distance both steeper here.
  by Malibu Moon       MW: Unless he breaks through in a major way, it's difficult envisioning a scenario where he can win this.
  Owner: Stonestreet Stables, Magnier, et al; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Florent Geroux
   
SCR International Star SCR SCR 98 JP: Gritty colt improved throughout Derby preps at FG, with career-best Beyers every time; these are tougher.
  by Fusaichi Pegasus     MW: He'll need another career-best Beyer to win. He'll be a good price for one who is 3 for 3 as a 3-year-old.
  Owner: Ken & Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Miguel Mena
       
Itsaknockout 30-1 30-1 88 JP: Tiring surface for Fla. Derby made him look worse than he is. Liked final work in company with Materiality.
  by Lemon Drop Kid     MW: It was Materiality, Upstart who made him look bad in Fla. Derby as they ran on the same tiring track.
  Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez  
     
Keen Ice 50-1 30-1 88 JP: Compromised by moderate early pace in Louisiana Derby. Definitely an exotics bomber with one-run style.
  by Curlin       MW: Don’t think he's remotely good enough, but if Commanding Curve can run second in a Ky. Derby ...
  Owner: Donegal Racing; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
     
Frosted 15-1 15-1 103 JP: Wood Memorial was a big step forward. Closed into moderate pace, got a very nice Beyer. Dangerous.
  by Tapit       MW: Liked his Wood a lot. A concern is his best races have been at Aqueduct, but he's a must use at a price.
  Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Joel Rosario
       
War Story 50-1 30-1 91 JP: Seemed he was making steady progress until last start, when he had no excuse after finally breaking well.
  by Northern Afleet     MW: Don't think he's progressed at all. His Beyers have moved just 5 points in four starts back to last year.
  Owner: Christopher Dunn & Loooch Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: Joe Talamo
   
Mr. Z 50-1 50-1 91 JP: Lost 11 straight since debut. Hasn't progressed from Los Al Futurity. Hope he doesn't get in anyone's way.
  by Malibu Moon     MW: Having points doesn't mean you should run; as likely as not to carry out everyone on his right in stretch.
  Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
     
American Pharoah 5-2 7-2 105 JP: Considering tight schedule to make both preps, races have been stellar; workout Sunday was spectacular.
  by Pioneerof the Nile     MW: Had ideal trips in easy races so far this year. Don't know if he can overcome adversity, but he is brilliant.
  Owner: Zayat Stables; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Victor Espinoza  
       
Upstart 15-1 12-1 108 JP: Certainly top-class, but concerned two tough races over tiring surface at GP could cause him to regress.
  by Flatter     MW: Only second best in Fla. Derby, but got a nice Beyer. Can get involved if he drops back, makes one run.
  Owner: Ralph Evans & WinStar Farm; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz  
     
Far Right 30-1 30-1 92 JP: Like that he fires every time, but showed in Ark. Derby there's a wide gap between him, American Pharoah.
  by Notional       MW: Just not as good as the leading members of his generation, and hasn't run nearly fast enough to contend.
  Owner: Robert LaPenta & Harry Rosenblum; Trainer: Ron Moquett; Jockey: Mike Smith
   
21 Frammento   30-1 85 JP: Stayed on rail in Blue Grass on day when outside lanes better. Could clunk up into bottom of gimmicks.
  by Midshipman     MW: Put a different name as his trainer and you'd wonder why he was entered; slowest in terms of Beyers.
  Owner: Mossarosa; Trainer: Nick Zito; Jockey: Corey Nakatani  
Also Eligible:      
SCR Tale of Verve SCR 72 JP: The best thing that could happen to this hopeless, absurd longshot is if he does not scratch into this race.
  by Tale of Ekati       MW: What was it about his recent maiden win over 5 opponents that lands him here? Absurd is too kind.
  Owner: Charles Fipke; Trainer: Dallas Stewart; Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
KENTUCKY DERBY PPS