Florida Derby

COUNTDOWN REWIND: FLORIDA DERBY

By Jeremy Plonk

Date: Saturday, March 30, 2013
Track: Gulfstream Park
Kentucky Derby Points Awarded: 100-40-20-10
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (2 turns) on dirt

HANDICAPPERS’ RECAP: A three-horse race on paper, and with SHANGHAI BOBBY (Todd Pletcher) an obvious distance question mark on pedigree and style, the “big two” of the Florida Derby proved best with ORB (Shug McGaughey) pulling away from ITSMYLUCKYDAY (Eddie Plesa). The field of 10 spread 10 lengths from first to fourth and none of the “filler” content of the race proved capable of eclipsing their the classy one-two finishers. Orb became the 14th horse in history to sweep the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby and the sixth straight winner of this race to rise from the Gulfstream allowance ranks from earlier in the meet.  ITSMYLUCKYDAY, off two months since his pair of wins  in the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes, proved a clear-cut No. 2 among the Florida contingent with his runner-up. SHANGHAI BOBBY had his Triple Crown aspirations, long as they seemed to this eye for some time, dashed.

ON THE CLOCK: The pace proved slow and manageable, so the Florida Derby pounded out the 24s. The splits were 24.74, 23.82, 24.33, 24.90 and 13.08 the final furlong. Much will be debated about the final time of 1:50.87, clocking about 10 lengths slower than the 3-year-old filly Dreaming of Julia posted in the Gulfstream Park Oaks earlier in the day. And the top older mares in the Rampart Handicap went a solid, 4-plus lengths faster on the clock. The final furlong also stacked up slowest in the Florida Derby in comparison to the day’s trio of nine-furlong stakes. The final time ranks slowest of all Florida Derby renewals since the track was reconfigured to 1-1/8 miles circumference. But as we noted when ORB won the Fountain of Youth, he’s not a horse to judge on times. We made that mistake when he won a noticeably slower, split-division allowance the same day as Cerro when those two rematched in the FoY.

THE EYE TEST: ORB could lick the tails of SHANGHAI BOBBY and ITSMYLUCKYDAY midway around the clubhouse turn, showing a tractable style of which few considered prior. To be that close up to defined pace players like those two make this a big leap forward when you evaluate the overall game of ORB.  Meanwhile, Elvis Trujillo on ITSMYLUCKYDAY did a nice job keeping Rosie Napravnik and SHANGHAI BOBBY pinned inside and just off the heels of the longshot front-runners. But when ORB launched his wide, winning bid about three furlongs from the wire, SHANGHAI BOBBY failed to quicken and lost more than 10 lengths to that rival from that point to the wire. ITSMYLUCKYDAY got first run on the leaders, looked the winning part in the upper-stretch, but failed to deliver with flair down the lane. He had a harder time putting away sprinter MERIT MAN (Bob Hess Jr.) than ORB had going by him. ORB galloped out much the best as well. Pacesetters MERIT MAN and NARVAEZ (Agustin Bezara) held for third and fourth at 29-1 and 103-1 odds, respectively, taking advantage of the slow pace, lack of quality closers and typical Gulfstream inside pace edge around two turns. No one else picked up a hoof and rate any commentary.

PROJECTING THE FLORIDA DERBY FORWARD: ORB deserves to compete for favoritism in the Kentucky Derby and as a grandson of 1990 champ Unbridled on the damside, he gives no indication that the distance won’t suit him as well or better than any horse in the field.  Some of the shine has come off ITSMYLUCKYDAY, the speed merchant of January, but not a tremendous amount. He has earned his way to the Derby and belongs in the field, though his ability to sustain for 10 furlongs would be a surprise. SHANGHAI BOBBY wisely has been taken off the Triple Crown trail by his connections and expect him to be rebooting to a sprint or middle-distance career. Don’t be stunned to see MERIT MAN as a little-hope Preakness new shooter; this type of fast horse with distance questions often joins the cast at Pimlico.