Handicapper's Diary

The Handicapper's Diary feature from DRF Simulcast Daily will be posted every Thursday during the Del Mar meet.

Saturday, August 25, 2007 (Del Mar)

It was another cool day, and final times remained fast. In race 1, the $50,000 filly-mare claimer Gothic Beauty raced a half-mile in 46.29 seconds (third-fastest of the meet), and kept right on going. She won by four. Joel Rosario was suspended 10 days for careless riding in race 3, and he is lucky not to have killed someone. Rosario's mount Fandabidoo veered into a rival's path from right-handed whipping, and dropped Sunshine Ridge and jockey Martin Garcia. Several observers felt that a 10-day suspension was not enough for Rosario. Dodgen Bullets ($11.80) gave trainer Bob Baffert a rare Polytrack win in race 7, but his other 2-year-old in the maiden race was tons best. Guns On the Table, the 9-5 favorite, reared at the break, was away slow, made an extended run, and fell short by less than a length. Next time. Fourth-place finisher Premium Quality needed the start, and should move up a ton. Bai and Bai ($5.40) won the Solana Beach Handicap for Calbred fillies and mares, race 8, while Spenditallbaby came up short. Maybe she needed the race. It was only her fourth start of the meet for trainer Barry Abrams. Look Deep won race 10, the mostly highly rated race of the day. The maiden won by five lengths in 1:17.65, which should get a Beyer Figure somewhere in the 90s area. Good comeback by runner-up Hilogold, who needed the race and can improve. There were four winning favorites in the pick six, and two others were third choice. The highest $2 win mutuel was $11.80, yet the pick six paid $8,306.80. It sure looks easy after the fact, doesn't it?

Friday, August 24, 2007 (Del Mar)

It was another cool Friday (3:30 first post), and the track sped up as the program unfolded. Final times were noticeably quicker later in the card, as usually is the case on Fridays. No bias shifts, however. Nice win by Imagine in race 2, a turf marathon in which runner-up Nakaba had the so-class edge while Imagine had the high figs. Nakaba's trainer Paulo Lobo won a race this meet with a longshot South American, but ever since he was popped with a clenbuterol overage at Hollywood Park, his barn has cooled off. Probably a coincidence, don't you think? Heather's Echo had a brutal trip in race 3, a $25,000 maiden-claimer. Shuffled back on the turn under indecisive handling by Joel Rosario, she split foes late and tried to finish. Next time, with a different rider, she can win. There was another poor ride in race 4, this one by Chris Landeros on River Rebel. Riding a speed horse, he took back, stayed four-wide, and was passively ridden. Just horrible, and also a poor effort by class dropper Conclave. That one was easy to predict. He was being managed like a horse his connections could not wait to be claimed away. Mike Mitchell obliged, and he may get a start or two from the gelding before the 3-year-old will need a rest. Race-5 longshot Cowboysandindians got hammered in the betting in his first start since being gelded, but he was doomed by a pace battle and finished 10th. Mike's Trippin, second start as a gelding, won at a fat $10.80. Lightly raced General Sherman was his own worst enemy in race 7. He got rank, was unrelaxed, under a drive into the lane, and weakened. It was his fourth career start, he has ability but needs to settle. Runner-up Courtly Jazz ran well after setting the pace, but he was no match late for impressive closer Rush Rush. The one-day pick six carryover into Friday was $170,432.

Thursday, August 23, 2007 (Del Mar)

The temperature was cooler, and as a result the Polytrack surface was noticeably quicker. That has been the trend all summer. The hotter it gets, the slower the track. The cooler it gets the quicker the track. Funny thing is, the bias (outside preferred) does not change regardless of track speed. The track on Thursday was about one second faster than on Wednesday. G.I. Betty ($2.60) won the fastest mile of the meet in race 1, getting the distance in 1:39.48. She had nobody behind her; because her main rival Awesome Feat got sick and scratched. Runner-up Pride of Pegasus set the pace, but everyone knows you cannot win a route race on the front end on Polytrack. Maybe she will win a race on Cushion Track at Santa Anita. Race-3 news flash: for the first time in nine races, the front-runner did not win the turf sprint. Instead, it was the horse sitting second. That was Indian Ashton, who was winning his second straight turf sprint this meet. The rails are up at seven feet, which means only seven horses can start. That kills the superfecta even before scratches. By rule, there is no superfecta wagering on a race in California unless there are eight runners after scratch time. The bottom line is that Del Mar should reconsider these ridiculous turf sprints that are dominated by one-dimensional speed. Route to sprint can be a strong handicapping angle on slow surfaces, and that is just what Switzerland did in race 5. Leading jockey Michael Baze tucked him inside, saved gorund, angled out, and won going away. Sharp win by the $25,000 claimer. Meanwhile, third-place finisher Driven by Excess is an example of poor management. Only 18 days earlier, Driven by Excess missed by a nose in a $12,500 claiming race at six furlongs. Based on that, trainer Chuck Peery triple-jumped him in class, drew the inside post, and sent him six and a half furlongs. It was a wasted race. Driven by Excess finished a tired third. He could have won an easier race at a shorter distance. It was a wasted race. Engineered was another Cody Autrey debacle. He was scratched in the post parade as the 5-2 favorite while nose-diving in class. The California Marketing Committee reportedly subsidized Autrey to the tune of $3,000 for every horse he shipped from Kentucky to California. So Long Sonoma might be the worst hanger on the circuit. She had all the momentum turning for home in race 7, but as soon as she spotted front-runner Kalookan Queen, So Long Sonoma hit the brakes. Runner-up again. She just refuses to pass a horse.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007 (Del Mar)

Shore Do ($8.40) won race 2, the first grass route of summer for 2-year-olds, with a perfect ground-saving trip. But anyone watching the race could see that gteh gelding Nutzapper was tons best in his career debut. Caught wide early, he unleashed a big wide move on the far turn, steadied when the winner drifted out into the lane, and missed by a neck. Nutzapper is a better horse than the winner. Top Gone was the 5-2 favorite, and he could not have run any worse for Gary Mandella. The second-time starter was completely out of horse into the lane. Absolutely awful, without a visible excuse. Maybe someday, Dr. Seacliff will be ridden properly. And when he does, he can spring an upset. The first-level allowance runner needs to be anchored early, and make one run. But in race 4, he set the pace for the second straight time, with predictable results. He finished fifth of six. Dr. Seacliff's jockey is Martin Garcia; his trainer is Marty Jones. Dr. Seacliff needs to be taken back. Key Maker was taken back, and but after making a big move on the far turn, he simply was not good enough. Dr. Seacliff needs to be ridden the same way Key Maker was ridden. Second-time starter Angus ($12) ran away from his rivals in race 5, a Calbred maiden race, winning by nearly two lengths despite drifting out through the lane. The final time was sharp (1:121.70), and he fits right back in a first-level statebred allowance. Two Tone Roan broke slow, made a middle move, then flattened out. He may need to run long. Queen of the I.E. was a mile best in race 8, but after rearing at the break and making an extended run, she flattened out. Next time.

Monday, August 20, 2007 (Del Mar)

The nose victory in race 2 by Lord Albion ($5.60) marked the 9-year-old gelding's fifth win in his last five starts for Jack Carava. Lord Albion was racing for a $16,000 claiming tag, and was winning for the 16th time in 35 starts. His final time for six furlongs was relatively fast (1:12.70); Ted H. West claimed him in a four-way shake. It will be interesting to see if Lord Albion holds form for someone other than Carava, particularly since the West stable is mired in a months-long slump. Five of the seven wins this meet by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer were with horses making their first start following a claim or transfer. Wings of Freedom ($8.20) was a first-off-the-claim winner in race 3, a $40,000 maiden-claimer. Wings of Freedom was the fifth horse out of race 9 on July 22 to win his next start. The runner-up behind Wings of Freedom was Another Event, who broke slow from an inside post, was never in a comfortable spot racing inside, and finished a good second. Hollendorfer-trained Gula Gold ($21) was an apparently overmatched shipper from Emerald in race 5, but the 3-year-old filly caught a dead field of claimers and won by three and a half under leading rider Michael Baze. The favorite Freelovin Fran fell apart at the head of the lane, without an excuse. Watch Over Me ($5.40) was sharp in race 6, wining the $40,000 claiming sprint in a solid 1:12.64 for trainer Jeff Mullins. He can win right back. Count Orange had an uneasy trip racing inside, and finished seventh in a throw-out race. West claimed him for Fairplex Park. Love Happens finished eighth by nearly 10 lengths in race 8, a $100,000 maiden-claimer for 2-year-old fillies. But it might be a good idea to bet her back. She raced green in traffic, and finished a lot better than it looks on paper. Mike Mitchell-trained maidens usually improve anyway.

Sunday, August 19, 2007 (Del Mar)

Second-time starter Grace Anatomy ($6) stamped herself as a potential 2-year-old stakes filly with a sharp maiden win in race 2. She rode the crest of the pro-outside bias, won by two lengths in a relatively fast 1:12.51 and could wheel back in 15 days in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. Doubt she is ready yet for Tasha's Miracle, however. Greg's Gold never looked like a loser in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Handicap. He pressed easy fractions in the seven-furlong race, kicked clear into the lane, and had plenty left to hold off even-money favorite Surf Cat, who was under a drive on the turn. The win by Greg's Gold flatters Grade 1 winner In Summation, who beat Greg's Gold earler this meet in the Bing Crosby. Bordonaro faded to last. E Z's Gentleman ($26.40) improved a ton second time out, and the 2-year-old colt won race 6 with a patient ride from Victor Espinoza. When the 8-5 favorite Overextended ran past him on the turn, Espinoza stayed cool and did not pull the trigger until past the quarter pole. He won inching clear late. First-time starter Colonel John ran well in defeat and finished second; Overextended moved too soon, and it cost him. He missed by a length, but is expected to run back closing day in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. The Doug O'Neill camp believes that Overextended has Kentucky Derby potential. We'll see about that. Crossing the Line scored the most impressive win of the day, blitzing the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile Handicap on turf in 1:32.59. The New Zealand-bred gelding has a brilliant turn of foot, and ran past a decent field with a final quarter-mile in less that 22 seconds to win by three-quarters of a length. He is the best turf miler in California, and maybe the best older horse in the state, period. The 8-5 favorite Out of Control wants farther than one mile. He finished sixth. The Pacific Classic looked like a weak field going in, and a dreadful field coming out. Lava Man struggled with the Polytrack surface, like many heavy-bodied horses do, and finished a dismal sixth. The race was won by allowance-caliber Midwest shipper Student Council ($48.80). He outfinished Awesome Gem by a half-length; it was four lengths back to Hello Sunday in third. The final time of the Pacific Classic was 2:07.29, and the West Coast handicap division is as weak as it has ever been. Lava Man may need to switch back to turf.

Saturday, August 18, 2007 (Del Mar)

Thru n' Thru ($12.20) won race 1, a N1X filly-mare turf sprint. Guess how she won? Gate to wire, of course. That makes it eight straight for pacesetters in turf sprints. When Six Again ($3.60) won race 2, it was no surprise. He had finished third last time out in the most productive maiden-claiming race of summer. The first four finishers from race 9 on July 22 won their next start. Bruce Headley and Alex Solis won for the second straight day when the older maiden Choctaw Chief ($20.80) rallied from last to first in race 6. The race basically fell apart up front, and the slow final time was 1:19.61. Nice win by by Barbecue Eddie in race 7, a N1X that he crushed by more than four lengths. When trainer Chris Clemente ships West, it is almost an automatic play. He sent Rutherienne ($9.20) to Del Mar for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, and she absolutely crushed. Full of run throughout while the pacesetters were smoking, she wheeled out into the lane and uncorked an absolutely devastating turn of foot to win clear. Runner-up Valbenny ran her race, and was four and one-half lengths clear of third, but that is not good enough.

Friday, August 17, 2007 (Del Mar)

The rally-wide bias was unmistakable. Senior ($8.20) won race 1, a mile and a sixteenth race for older maidens, by rallying wide from last despite the slow pace up front (50.34 opening half, and 1;15.18 for six furlongs). Runner-up Informed should win soon. It was his second career start, his first around two turns, and his trainer Bob Baffert ended the week 1-for-30 this summer on Polytrack. A crazy four-wide move into the far turn of race 2 (mile turf) cost Clinet her best chance in the classified allowance. She lost ground throughout, and ended up fourth in a race she could have won with a patient ride. Sweet Belle wired the field on a course that is increasingly beneficial to speed. Track stewards disqualified runner-up Private Banking from second. Ticky-tack. Polish Pete finished fourth in race 3, but his effort in the maiden-40 starter for 2-year-olds was better than it looks. He got shuffled early, recovered, raced inside, loomed a threat into the lane, then flattened out. Next time. If the streaking filly River's Prayer ($6.20) is not the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, she at least is one of the top contenders. She won her fifth straight in race 7, taking the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo by a half-length. She went six and a half furlongs in 1:17.85 over a track that was not conducive to speed. "It's so hard to win on the front end here, you've got to save something," River Prayer's jockey Clinton Potts said. Pussycat Doll apparently is all but through. She finished a bad fourth as the surprising 8-5 favorite. Catch That Thief won race 8, a $25,000 maiden-claimer, by rallying five-wide into the lane, with the bias. Jockey Alex Solis won twice; he rides well on rally-wide tracks.

Thursday, August 16, 2007 (Del Mar)

Trainer Doug O'Neill never wins with first-time starters, but well-hidden Ask Sam ($27.60) won race 1 ran like she was possessed. By the low-percent debut sire Cryptoclearance, Ask Sam won the Calbred maiden race by six lengths in a solid 1:12.39 for six furlongs. O'Neill's second starter was Tiztuff. She ran poorly at lower odds (5.40-1). O'Neill also won race 2 with a higher-odds runner. Here Comes Ray Ray ($10.80) exploded to a come-from-behind win in the $20,000 claimer for 3-year-old fillies. A P Charlie, at 2.80-1, finished second after dueling for the lead. On a day he extended his lead in the trainer standings, O'Neill-trained odds-on favorite Stormy Game finished a bad third in race 3. A recurring them regarding high-profile stables such as O'Neill's is that they do get overbet. Fantastic Spring ($5.80) broke on top in race 4, a second-level allowance for fillies and mares at five furlongs on turf. And of course, she was gone. That makes it seven straight turf sprints won by the pacesetter. Coco Belle chased in second, all the way. Holly Torque Tango broke down at the head of the lane, the fourth breakdown of the meet on grass. The only reason Masterpiece ($30.20) was in the $85,000 Harry F. Brubaker is because he had to be scratched from an allowance race last week when the race over-filled and part-owner Tom Lenner already had another horse in the allowance. It worked out well. Masterpiece, who is a bad bleeder, won the Brubaker by a length over Warrior Song. The runner-up appeared to have it won, then completely fell apart late. It was his first start in almost a year, and conventional thinking is that he will be fitter next time. Doubt it.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007 (Del Mar)

It was an unusually humid day, and maybe the weather was one reason front-runner Steamy Stormy ($10.80) was able to win race 1 (maiden-40 starter at one mile), after setting the pace, being collared and passed, and re-rallying to victory. Horses do not do that on Polytrack. But no late speed materialized, and the front-runners dominated throughout. Arroyo Trabuco had it won on the far turn, but could not finish the job. Fourth-place finisher Mellow Cammie cannot run long, but fits when trainer Jeff Mullins drops him back to a sprint. Race-2 first-time starter Wild Baby Girl ($27) broke slow, raced green, lugged in, did not switch leads, and yet the 2-year-old filly won by a half-length in a good 1:06.84 for five and a half. Wild Baby Girl was sired by the new stallion Misbah (a half to Cotton Blossom), and claimed from David Hofmans by Barry Abrams. Good claim by a filly who won despite not knowing what she was doing. Even-money favorite Lower the Rate ran poorly without an apparent alibi. Celtic Way was best in race 3, but the $10,000 claiming filly was off slow, broke open the race too soon on the turn, and got collared. Ever So Nice pressed and cracked; the bottom-rung speedster will be tough going four and a half at Fairplex. Back in six days in race 6, Rush With Thunder ($9) won for the third time this summer, taking a Calbred N1X route by a more than two lengths. Gentle Romeo, the 9-5 favorite, ran poorly in his first against winners and first around two turns. Earnednevergiven, who scratched five days earlier because of a medication blunder, ran poorly in his first try around two turns. Barber ($25.60) won race 7, the Green Flash Handicap, leading gate to wire in the turf sprint. That makes it seven straight grass sprints won by the pacesetter. Runner-up Scottsbluff was favored at 9-5, but his closing style is wrong for the course. He was best, while trying to weave through traffic.