05/22/2008 4:14PM

Young sires, Belmont betting?

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Dan or any of you great memory handicappers help me remember who finished second to Swept Overboard in the 2002 Met Mile?  I was reminiscing about that score with the impending memorial day weekend and i always feared the day I couldn't remember a horse and that day has arrived...id be much obliged to anyone who knows...
jlove


Here is the chart of the 2002 Met Mile:

Download MetMile2002.pdf


Swept Overboard was sold to Japanese interests at the conclusion of his racing career.

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So now, back to that matter of Big Brown, and this quest.  There are sixteen days before the Belmont Stakes.  Anything can happen during this time.  The field has yet to take shape.  But with all that said, I am having a hard time placing my level of certainty for this race.  What are your (and other’s) thoughts?
Van Savant


I don't think you can ever be certain as it pertains to the Belmont Stakes.  You could argue that the distance beat Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, etc. more than their opposition.  Either a Triple Crown candidate handles the marathon or he doesn't.  Add in that said horse has to maintain peak form for five weeks (not counting the Derby preps), and the task becomes much more daunting.  Also, all the other jockeys in the race will be riding Big Brown as much as their own mounts.  There won't be any gimmees.  Big Brown will likely have to enounter waves of challengers, and still get the distance.  On paper, Big Brown should be 2-5.  The Belmont has a way of making fools out of form analysts, however.

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Dan:
Re: Tony Kelso's comments, are the Japanese racing fans (other than those who make the trip) going to have access to the tote for the Belmont?
Do Youbet, TVG, Xpress or any of the others take international (other than Canadian) customers?
BTW, when TVG takes special Japanese races is it a separate US pool or is it commingled with the Japan pool?
If Japan bets into our pool, it would make things very interesting.
On another topic, I understand from the NYT racing blog that the connections of CD have not firmly decided on Take. They would be insane to put Take on the horse when the likes of Prado is available.
James Mc.


I don't believe that Japanese fans will have access to the tote, and that the major wagering sites do not allow international customers.  The Japanese races on TVG are bet into a separate U. S. pool, and you'll often find underlays in these separate pools on overmatched American horses when they ship over there. 
The Japanese fans will bet though if they are on track.  I'm sure you guys remember the 2006 Arc de Triomphe.  Tons of Japanese fans descended on Longchamp, and hammered Deep Impact to 9-4 favoritism.  He finished third under Take.

Here's an article from our friends at The Racing Post concerning the wagering phenomenon that day:

'One of the most extraordinary days of gambles in racing history'
Published: 02/10/2006 (Sport) By Lee Mottershead
"THE craziest betting race I've known." That was how Mike Dillon, the longserving public face of Ladbrokes, yesterday described the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as a E1.6 million gamble on Japanese superstar Deep Impact came unstuck.
As a result of thousands of devoted Japanese punters steaming into their hero - even when the horse was trading on the pari-mutuel at 1-10 - Rail Link, an 8-1 winner on British industry prices, was returned on the PMU at 23.6-1.
Unfortunately for bookmakers, many of whom, including Ladbrokes, still won on the Arc, British and Irish punters had the best of both worlds. While on-course Japanese punters piled into Deep Impact regardless of his odds, their British counterparts were backing the Asian horse at 9-4, while taking advantage of the PMU's inflated prices on all the other runners.
"It was the craziest betting race I've known in 35 years in the business," said Dillon, who described Deep Impact as "the heaviest-backed horse in the history of the Arc".
"I've never known anything like it," he added. "I saw Japanese punters waiting for PMU windows to open so that they could back a horse at 1-10 who was available at 5-2 in Britain.
"When I rang the office after the first Arc show came in and told them that Deep Impact was 1-10, Hurricane Run was 12-1 and Shirocco 14-1, I think they thought I'd had a few bottles of vin rouge!"
Figures returned by PMU officials confirmed the magnitude of the Deep Impact gamble. Of the Û2.948 million bet into the Arc's win pool, Û1.6m was poured on the horse.
As a result of that frenzy of Deep Impact support, on-course Arc-day turnover was up from Û3.1m in 2005 to Û4.9m this year.
Other British bookmakers concurred with Dillon's assessment.
Totesport's Damien Walker reckoned victory for the Japanese champion would have cost the industry £5m, while Coral's Simon Clare emphasised that the juxtaposition of the two betting systems proved costly to bookmakers, even though many layers sought to take some measure of control by themselves betting into PMU pools.
"This was one of the most extraordinary days of race gambles in racing history," said Clare.
"While the defeat of Deep Impact saved us a massive payout, we still lost on the race, as smaller punters placed bets on all his rivals at artificially inflated prices on the PMU, and Rail Link at 24-1 was the most popular."
William Hill's spokesman David Hood also highlighted the costly effect of the forceful instructions given to punters by Angus Loughran during the BBC's coverage.
Hood said: "Angus Loughran on the BBC did British bookmakers no favours by telling people that they had to back horses like Rail Link on the PMU.
"People have sat at home following his advice and, as a result, an extra £1 million has been taken off the bookmakers."



It's unclear whether Take will ride Casino Drive in the Belmont as he is scheduled to ride in a Grade 1 race the following day in Japan.

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Anybody hear anything on a pick 6- to start in mid -June possibly involving Bel., Del., Pha., & Mth racetracks??
I heard something on the Steve Byk radio show on Sirius yest.-discussing it.
Steve V


I believe it's called the 60 Minute Pick Six, and will include two races from Belmont, two from Monmouth, one from Delaware, and one from Philadelphia Park.  I think it's scheduled to start next week, and Andy Serling and I will do some video to promote it on drf.com.

***

Back with some weekend opinions in tomorrow's blog.

Take care,

Dan

CARL BARNHILL More than 1 year ago
PLEASE SEND ME INFO ON A SITE THAT WOULD SHOW ME THE TOP TURF,DIRT,SLOPPY TRACK SIRES AS OF 2008 THANKS
charles baxter More than 1 year ago
Mabe Big Brown was ZAPPED! Someone in the stands was using an Electric shock device or some kind of Ultrasonic sound machine that was directed at the horse to distract or bother him. Could this be so?
cayman01 More than 1 year ago
I'm intrigued by OCHRE tomorrow in the Sheepshead Bay. Enought to make a small wager at a great price. She went to the front in her last race at a mile and a half and never looked back. With no other early speed signed on here she should get the same trip. The only question is her Beyer's are a bit light for this bunch. However, I'm going with the theory that she was geared down at the end of her last race and, being lightly raced, she's still on the improvement.She should provide a thrill for backers at about 10-1 or so. Maurakalana , Hostess and J'Ray will all try to run her down in the lane.Look for a blanket finish. Hanshin-AP 9th- LOVANGO freaked in his only poly start at ...... AP. Should get an absolute dream trip stalking from the outside against need-the-lead types Spotsgone, Stonehouse, and Throng. Leading rider RR Douglas gets the call.Should be winner winner chicken dinner. Will look to take a shot ata price in the Arlingtom Classic. SEBASTION COUNTY goes to turf for the first time, but should handle it. In a race full of stalkers he looks to be the most forwardly placed of them so he should get first run when Meal Penalty starts backing up in the lane. If he handles the turf he has a great shot at M/L 10-1.
Tinky More than 1 year ago
Sobhy – As you must surely understand by now, Thoroughbred racing and breeding largely revolve around around percentages, and those who make a serious attempt to become successful in either realm learn to interpret and play the percentages in the most refined, and therefore favorable possible manner. With respect to interpreting a given pedigree, or the aptitude of the offspring of a given sire, one looks at the evidence in order to make a sound judgment. Both you and Justin are, in the case of Distorted Humor, either misunderstanding the process, or making a simple mistake. Distorted Humor is primarily – and unequivocally – a sprinter/miler influence. That does not mean that he isn't capable of siring the odd runner that will be suited to 10 furlongs (or beyond), but the number of his offspring which fall into that category is so statistically small as to be rendered insignificant. Both of you repeat names like Funny Cide and Flower Alley, but they are high-class anomalies. Break his stud record to date down any way you like, and you can only arrive at one conclusion: the vast majority of his offspring are best suited to races between six and nine furlongs, and only a very small percentage ever succeed beyond the latter distance. No breeder in his or her right mind would breed to him and expect to get a 10 furlong runner. Now, when you bought Z Humor as yearling, I don't think that it would have been unreasonable for your camp to have speculated that there was a chance – albeit a remote one – that given the presence of A.P. Indy in the bottom-line, he might have proven to be one of the exceptions. But given the way in which he ran in his races leading up to the Derby, coupled with his rather hot temperament (which is typical of DH's offspring), it was clear that 10 furlongs was very likely to be beyond his best distance. It's sweetly ironic that you would quote Wayne Lukas, as he was the poster child for the type of mismanagement to which I have been referring. In fact, he took it to levels which were previously unheard of. He understood (brilliantly) that most wealthy owners are mainly concerned with having their large egos fed. So he spent huge sums on yearlings (which, of course, gives many wealthy owners a serious buzz), and consistently, throughout his career, has run horses over their heads and in otherwise inappropriate races precisely because such placement feeds the egos of his owners. They love "Saturday horses", even if they are 20-1. Unfortunately, developing horses slowly, carefully, and wisely, is mostly incompatible with the ego-driven desires of the typical wealthy owner. So for every horse which Lukas won a big race with, there were scores of others which were ground up in the process, and never had a chance to develop to their full potential. Finally, if you and Justin want to use a Lukas' cliché to make yourselves feel good when someone offers criticism of your operation, that's your choice. But I'll give you the same advise that I previously gave to Justin: if you really want to be the best that you can be in this complex business, then you'd be well-advised to learn from serious criticism, rather than basking in the glow of the adulation your receive from the many sycophants your stable attracts.
larryk More than 1 year ago
Tinky, What can I say, that my fellow bloggers have not said already....
SLB More than 1 year ago
Steve V. & Dan, Re: the "60 min. P6".. Sal Sinatra visited 'At the Races' Thursday to clarify the new bet. It is now scheduled to commence June 14 with the 6 races coming from BEL, MTH, PHA and DEL. While it will feature 2 races from 2 tracks and 1 from the other two, the tracks hosting pairs of races will rotate and NOT be from the same 2 tracks every week. The bet will always start with the Belmont 6th however. The minimum is $1; the takeout is going to be a paltry 15%; there will be early seeding of the wager with a $100,000 guarantee. DRF is apparently going to provide similar PP's for the "60-6" as we've come to receive for the Magna 5. I'll be providing lots of coverage for the '60-6' on "At the Races" too, and look forward to Dan & Andy's analysis of what should be an instant hit with serious multi-race players. And... on the topic of cool wagers, Brian Pochman shed light May 23 on 'ATR' that Lone Star has started a P5 on its' last 5 races of the day which features just a 12% takeout. I know many are shut out of LSP right now, and the bet has small pools so far, but this wager looks like a winner as well given that carryovers would essentially negate the takeout.
Tinky More than 1 year ago
Chase – "But to say he's a sprint/miler sire is way off base." I'm afraid that you don't know what you are talking about, nor, apparently have you read my posts on the topic. Real Quiet sired Midnight Lute; do you think he's a speed influence? Northern Afleet sired Afleet Alex; do you think he's a stamina influence? Etc. All sires get the odd horse(s) which perform at distances beyond those at which their typical offspring perform best. Distorted Humor is no different. Out of every 100 Distorted Humor runners, how many do you suppose are suited to 10 furlongs and beyond? One? Two? Five? Even if you were to choose a number in the high single digits, a number which would almost certainly be too high, that would mean that over 90% of his runners are SPRINTERS AND MILERS. Is that too complicated for you?
Sobhy Sonbol More than 1 year ago
Dear All, Thank you for all the support to our stable and our operation. Also we welcome all kinds of criticism and comments. We are very proud of what we have achieved in a very short time. I think we have come a long way in a short time. We have done mistakes that we learned from and have learned a lot from the veterans of our industry. I would also like to think that we have added to the industry and have injected new ideas and successful approaches to the way things are done. As to the criticism we have received from Tinky about placing horses where that belongs i will just let the numbers address that. In 2006 we were leading owners in Del Mar and we ended up somewhere in the top 15 leading money earners in the country that year, Last year we won 18 races in Saratoga (12 more than the 2nd leading owner and 3 more than todd pletcher) we were 2nd leading money earners in the country and we were leading owners by stakes winners and graded stakes winners. This year so far we have been leading owner in the country and have been holding our position in a solid manner. I am very proud of what we have achieved and i am very humbled by it but i do not see how placing our horses where they do not belong can achieve all of the above. Tinky, also your comments about Justin's pedigree insight is out of place because even though Distorted Humor sires great milers and sprinter but some of his best runners were classic winners Funny Cide who won the Derby and Preakness, Flower Alley who won the travers and Any Given Saturday who is bred just like Z Humor won the Haskell. Distorted Humors are very versatile and they have proven that they can stay the 10f distance in G1 company (twice). You also have to look at the stakes calender and what is available and who is running where and for what and how you can affect the value of your horse. All these things are taken on consideration when we run horses and every race is picked out carefully and yes i am proud to say that we sometimes run 20-1 shots and 30-1 shots but i have proven successful doing that to because sometimes we see something that others dont. Sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong but we learn from our mistakes and go forward. Sherine won the G2 Comley a month ago whilst being the longest shot on the board. Tinky, I would love to know your involvement in our sport maybe that will explain the nature of your comments. Mr. D W Lukas told me when we first started is if people in this game are your friends be worried if people are ripping you apart and hate you be happy cause that means you are doing well. I am happy to see our success and also the support of a lot of people on the blog. On the matter of Prado's ride in the Preakness. First of all Edgar is a great rider and has ridden great races for us. We were hoping to be sitting 3rd or 4th in the preakness just tracking the leaders. Riley Tucker belonged in this race as much as the other 11 contenders out side of BB. Big Brown is a tremendous race horse and i did not think that Riley Tucker is mature enough to beat him right now. However we think that he can beat the 11 remaining horses in the race. RT was traveling well until BB bumped him in the first turn and almost knocked him off his saddle. I would have wished if he would have let big brown through and tracked him. It was obvious that after this bump Edgar got emotionally involved in the race i think a knee jerk reaction ended up making our horse the sacrificial lamb. However, this matter is over and I still think Edgar is a great Jockey. Bustin Stones is a hell of a race horse, no doubt about that. So is Premium Wine. In the 2 times they ran against each other we got the troubled part of the race. This is racing though and we are happy to have a healthy and sound horse that will be able to show his talent even more. At the same token Bustin Stones showed a lot of guts sustaining early pressure in those two races. Laura, thank you for your comments and please do not hesitate to approach us with any ideas.
Chase More than 1 year ago
Tinky- I know that this subject has been hounded time and time again since your post, but I'm inclined to put my two cents in. On Distorted Humor's offspring, you mentioned that Any Given Saturday was a high class miler. I'm inclined to disagree. While he did, in fact, not win past 1 1/8 miles, does that necessarily mean that he wouldn't get the distance? No, as there were legit excuses for both races in which he ran farther. In the Derby, he was 2nd for a good bit before faltering and subsequently coming out of the race with a bruised foot. In the BC Classic, the track was a mess that day, and many who would have had a say in the results didn't run a lick. I'm inclined to think that he was one of these. And Flower Alley, while he may have won the Jim Dandy and Lanes End at 9 furlongs, the Travers is run at 1 1/4 miles, and he was second in the BC Classic, at 1 1/4 miles. That is what I would consider a route horse. Funny Cide is one I'm not going into great detail about, as everyone already knows who he is, but he won the Derby, and Preakness, and was third in the Belmont. This does not include horses that haven't won a graded stakes at 9 furlongs or below, as countless have won at that distance. And I know I'm missing a few. But to say he's a sprint/miler sire is way off base.
Dale More than 1 year ago
John R, I see BB at 1/5 with Casino Drive at 5 or 6/1. I would not be at all surprised if the BB/CD exacta had a probable payoff of $4. This analysis does NOT include a possible influx of big $$ from a Japanese contingent such as occurred in the Arc a few years ago....if the Japanese throw big $$ on CD, he might get down to 3/1, with BB going up to 2/5 or 1/2.