05/22/2008 3:14PM

Young sires, Belmont betting?


Dan or any of you great memory handicappers help me remember who finished second to Swept Overboard in the 2002 Met Mile?  I was reminiscing about that score with the impending memorial day weekend and i always feared the day I couldn't remember a horse and that day has arrived...id be much obliged to anyone who knows...

Here is the chart of the 2002 Met Mile:

Download MetMile2002.pdf

Swept Overboard was sold to Japanese interests at the conclusion of his racing career.


So now, back to that matter of Big Brown, and this quest.  There are sixteen days before the Belmont Stakes.  Anything can happen during this time.  The field has yet to take shape.  But with all that said, I am having a hard time placing my level of certainty for this race.  What are your (and other’s) thoughts?
Van Savant

I don't think you can ever be certain as it pertains to the Belmont Stakes.  You could argue that the distance beat Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, etc. more than their opposition.  Either a Triple Crown candidate handles the marathon or he doesn't.  Add in that said horse has to maintain peak form for five weeks (not counting the Derby preps), and the task becomes much more daunting.  Also, all the other jockeys in the race will be riding Big Brown as much as their own mounts.  There won't be any gimmees.  Big Brown will likely have to enounter waves of challengers, and still get the distance.  On paper, Big Brown should be 2-5.  The Belmont has a way of making fools out of form analysts, however.


Re: Tony Kelso's comments, are the Japanese racing fans (other than those who make the trip) going to have access to the tote for the Belmont?
Do Youbet, TVG, Xpress or any of the others take international (other than Canadian) customers?
BTW, when TVG takes special Japanese races is it a separate US pool or is it commingled with the Japan pool?
If Japan bets into our pool, it would make things very interesting.
On another topic, I understand from the NYT racing blog that the connections of CD have not firmly decided on Take. They would be insane to put Take on the horse when the likes of Prado is available.
James Mc.

I don't believe that Japanese fans will have access to the tote, and that the major wagering sites do not allow international customers.  The Japanese races on TVG are bet into a separate U. S. pool, and you'll often find underlays in these separate pools on overmatched American horses when they ship over there. 
The Japanese fans will bet though if they are on track.  I'm sure you guys remember the 2006 Arc de Triomphe.  Tons of Japanese fans descended on Longchamp, and hammered Deep Impact to 9-4 favoritism.  He finished third under Take.

Here's an article from our friends at The Racing Post concerning the wagering phenomenon that day:

'One of the most extraordinary days of gambles in racing history'
Published: 02/10/2006 (Sport) By Lee Mottershead
"THE craziest betting race I've known." That was how Mike Dillon, the longserving public face of Ladbrokes, yesterday described the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as a E1.6 million gamble on Japanese superstar Deep Impact came unstuck.
As a result of thousands of devoted Japanese punters steaming into their hero - even when the horse was trading on the pari-mutuel at 1-10 - Rail Link, an 8-1 winner on British industry prices, was returned on the PMU at 23.6-1.
Unfortunately for bookmakers, many of whom, including Ladbrokes, still won on the Arc, British and Irish punters had the best of both worlds. While on-course Japanese punters piled into Deep Impact regardless of his odds, their British counterparts were backing the Asian horse at 9-4, while taking advantage of the PMU's inflated prices on all the other runners.
"It was the craziest betting race I've known in 35 years in the business," said Dillon, who described Deep Impact as "the heaviest-backed horse in the history of the Arc".
"I've never known anything like it," he added. "I saw Japanese punters waiting for PMU windows to open so that they could back a horse at 1-10 who was available at 5-2 in Britain.
"When I rang the office after the first Arc show came in and told them that Deep Impact was 1-10, Hurricane Run was 12-1 and Shirocco 14-1, I think they thought I'd had a few bottles of vin rouge!"
Figures returned by PMU officials confirmed the magnitude of the Deep Impact gamble. Of the Û2.948 million bet into the Arc's win pool, Û1.6m was poured on the horse.
As a result of that frenzy of Deep Impact support, on-course Arc-day turnover was up from Û3.1m in 2005 to Û4.9m this year.
Other British bookmakers concurred with Dillon's assessment.
Totesport's Damien Walker reckoned victory for the Japanese champion would have cost the industry £5m, while Coral's Simon Clare emphasised that the juxtaposition of the two betting systems proved costly to bookmakers, even though many layers sought to take some measure of control by themselves betting into PMU pools.
"This was one of the most extraordinary days of race gambles in racing history," said Clare.
"While the defeat of Deep Impact saved us a massive payout, we still lost on the race, as smaller punters placed bets on all his rivals at artificially inflated prices on the PMU, and Rail Link at 24-1 was the most popular."
William Hill's spokesman David Hood also highlighted the costly effect of the forceful instructions given to punters by Angus Loughran during the BBC's coverage.
Hood said: "Angus Loughran on the BBC did British bookmakers no favours by telling people that they had to back horses like Rail Link on the PMU.
"People have sat at home following his advice and, as a result, an extra £1 million has been taken off the bookmakers."

It's unclear whether Take will ride Casino Drive in the Belmont as he is scheduled to ride in a Grade 1 race the following day in Japan.


Anybody hear anything on a pick 6- to start in mid -June possibly involving Bel., Del., Pha., & Mth racetracks??
I heard something on the Steve Byk radio show on Sirius yest.-discussing it.
Steve V

I believe it's called the 60 Minute Pick Six, and will include two races from Belmont, two from Monmouth, one from Delaware, and one from Philadelphia Park.  I think it's scheduled to start next week, and Andy Serling and I will do some video to promote it on drf.com.


Back with some weekend opinions in tomorrow's blog.

Take care,