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Wise Dan's streak
WISE DAN continued his string of excellent performances with an absolute tour de force in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last weekend.
Piloted by John Velazquez, Wise Dan settled into a perfect position tracking the solid pace set by EXCAPER and DIMENSION, the 1-2 finishers of the Grade 2 Play the King Stakes at Woodbine on August 25. Wise Dan coasted by the leaders turning into the long stretch and, under an extremely confident Velazquez, scooted to the finish line on his own, breaking the course record and receiving a 108 Beyer Speed Figure.
The reigning Horse of the Year has now won nine straight races and has received 12 consecutive triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures.
The Beyer stat speaks to Wise Dan's longevity, consistency, and ability. It got me wondering about other triple-digit Beyer streaks.
Here's what I came up with (since the introduction of Beyers in Daily Racing Form in 1992).
1. CIGAR - 19*
1. SANDPIT - 19**
1. KONA GOLD - 19
4. SKIP AWAY - 17
5. AZERI - 16
5. BUCK'S BOY - 16
7. LITE THE FUSE - 15
7. BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE - 14
7. PLEASANTLY PERFECT - 14*
7. SWEPT OVERBOARD - 14
11. XTRA HEAT - 13***
11. ENGLISH CHANNEL - 13*******
11. EVENING ATTIRE - 13
11. STAR OF COZZENE - 13
15. CAPTAIN STEVE - 12*
15, FORMAL GOLD - 12*
15. WISE DAN - 12****
15. BEST PAL - 12*****
15. AFFIRMED SUCCESS - 12
15. AFFIRMED SUCCESS - 12*******
15. CONCERN - 12
15. GENERAL CHALLENGE - 12
15. HAWKSLEY HILL - 12
15. JEWEL PRINCESS - 12
15. LURE - 12
15. RACHEL ALEXANDRA - 12
15. SON OF A PISTOL - 12
15. TIZNOW - 12
*not counting Dubai World Cup performance in midst of streak (no Beyer given for overseas race)
**not counting two efforts in Japan Cup in midst of streak (no Beyer given for overseas race)
***not counting Dubai Golden Shaheen performance (no Beyer given for overseas race)
*****streak began 1/18/92. Best Pal raced in 1991 and 1990 without published Beyers.
******Affirmed Success had two separate 12-race streaks.
*******not counting Dubai Duty Free in midst of streak (no Beyer given for overseas race)
This is not a ranking of great horses, although I've much enjoyed your lists over the past few days. It's merely a fun look at horses that ran fast races over a prolonged period of time. I'm sure I'm missing a few, but my memory isn't what it used to be. If you see an omission, post it to the blog and I'll take a look.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (9/9/13 - 9/15/13)
1. WISE DAN - 108 - Woodbine Mile (G1-C) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Woodbine
2. WEDDING TOAST - 105 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Belmont
3. BLACK DIAMOND CAT - 103 - Montbook Stakes - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
4. BELLAMY BREW - 101 -OC 100k/N3X -N - 1 Mile - Belmont
5. REVOCATION - 100 - Alw 72000N1X - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
6. DR. WESLEY - 99 - OC 22k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
6. GROUPIE DOLL - 99 - Presque Isle Downs Master Stakes (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Presque Isle
8. LONGHUNTER (GB) - 97 - Kentucky Downs Turf Dash - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Kentucky
8. PEACE PRESERVER - 97 - Noble Damsel Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Belmont
10. I'M ALREADY SEXY - 95 - Pucker Up Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
10. KHARAFA - 95 - Ashley T. Cole Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
10. SWIDGEN - 95 - Clm 6250N2Y - 6 Furlongs - Calder
13. COALPORT - 95 - Franklin-Simpson Mile Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Kentucky
13. MINAKSHI (FR) - 94 - Canadian Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Woodbine
13. WORK ALL WEEK - 94 - Tex's Zing Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Fairmount
16. MAJOR HIGHWAY - 93 - Alw 97500N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
16. TEMERAINE - 93 - Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Kentucky
18. ALTERITE (FR) - 92 - Garden City Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
18. DREAMING OF SOPHIA - 92 - Judy's Red Shoes Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Calder
18. EVERYBODY'S DADDY - 92 - Clm 35000(35-30)N2Y - 6 Furlongs - Delaware
18. FORTE DEI MARMI (GB) - 92 - Northern Dancer Stakes (G1-C) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Woodbine
18. MANAGED ACCOUNT - 92 - DTHA Governor's Day Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Delaware
18. THOMAS HILL - 92 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - Belmont
18. SWIFT WARRIOR - 92 - PTHA President's Cup Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Parx
18. TOO WILD FOR WORDS - 92 - Clm 12500(12.5-10) - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Presque Isle
18. WELL'S GOLD - 92 - OC20k/SAL10k - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Louisiana
*Wise Dan's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
When you get the chance, you're definitely going to want to check out "RACEHORSE," the latest production from Jessica Pacheco, racing analyst at Arlington Park.
After yet another third place finish by Workin for Hops, Red Rabbit Racing stuggles with the decision: "To Drop, or Not To Drop"?
Episodes 1-7 can be found here:
Okay...gotta ask...can you post the lifetime pp's for Green Secret, please. I have a new crush, eventhough I think he is nine years old. As Father Riley said (in song) to Sy on Frank Zappa's Joe's Garage, "What have I been missing all these years?"
GREEN SECRET's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan or Bernhard,
True or False
I seem to remember comments about Joseph O'Brien that he wouldn't have a riding career after he "grew" older.
Joseph O'Brien is 6 foot tall, he can ride no lighter than 9 stone, and he is not yet 21 years old.
The fear, or do I mean expectation, is that he has not finished growing.
9 stone is the classic weight over here and if Joseph couldn't make that weight he wouldn't have much of a career ahead of him.
If that should happen he might well make the switch to becoming a jumps jockey.
Best Regards - Bernard Downes
Does anyone know who Laura Perillo is. She is listed as trainer for Midwest Throughbreds in place of Jamie Ness at Belmont. Is Ness on suspension again and his assistant's listed or is this a new trainer for the group?
Thought the same suspension angle as you when I first saw Laura Perillo listed as trainer of the Midwest Thoroughbred horses. Either Dave Grening or Mike Welsch reported on one of their daily Saratoga videos that she has been promoted from her assistant trainer position to trainer of record. Apparently Ness feels he has too many horses in the mid-Atlantic region and prefers to concentrate his full attention there. I'll have to watch her for a while to get a feel for how she operates.
Enjoyed your write up on Belmont's P6. Wonder what % of the players were toast after the bomb in the first leg? Glad I don't go anywhere near that bet. Wouldn't survive.
From David Grening's column posted to drf.com on 9/5:
Perillo taking over Ness division
Beginning with the opening of the Belmont fall meet, Laura Perillo will be training the New York division for Midwest Thoroughbreds. Perillo takes over for Jamie Ness, for whom Perillo worked as an assistant the last year.
Perillo, 30, worked for Midwest’s previous trainer, Brad Cox, before joining with Ness.
“It’s time for her to take over the reins,” Ness said. “I got a lot of horses at Delaware and Maryland. I can’t get up there as much as I’d like. I wish her all the luck and hope she does good.”
“Nervous and excited,” Perillo said. “I don’t want to mess it up.”
Perillo will have 17 horses in her care, three of whom are entered on Saturday’s opening-day program. Leilani’s Ticket and Charlie’s Punch are a coupled entry in the sixth, with Luis Saez named on both, so only one may run. Cash Your Ticket is entered in the ninth.
The weekend handicapping videos should be up on the homepage later this week.
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
Congrats to Mike O. for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling contest.
Let's go with Saturday's Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx for this week's race.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***
I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
Best of luck to all.
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Bernard, I cannot speak for the others, but I think you fully understand the simple point I was trying to make, " I keep a simple but inclusive betting record, and I make a small net profit most years" I think there is an absolute correlation between paying close attention and success. Best always.
Autobahn continued. There was only one other race run over 6.5f';s that day and that was a 2 1/8th mile marathon so using that race as a gauge is a no go. How about the sprints? The fastest 6f's was run in 1:10:1....the horse who won was the favorite and much the best. The time reflected it...it was a 12,5 claimer.....given that time and looking at the other times against class I concluded the course was playing about par. Autobahn Legends race was slow early, quicker late coming home in 29;1 from the 3/4's to home. About average for a decent horse......so in reality we have a horse who didn't beat much in an average time. Not bad, not great....just so so. I do consider other factors....I doubt Motion wanted to beat up on him off the injury and instructed the jock along those lines. I can also conclude that he wasn't 100%....he was fit, of that I have no question, but I doubt he was ready to give a performance like his second start. He won and showed that same tenacity.....so what about next time? Tenacious horses win.....I'd expect him to be a bit tighter next time, but 3 weeks have gone by since that race and he hasn't been back to work at all. Now it depends on the trainer and the horse and Motion isn't a workout demon, but it does have to give you pause, especially after the injury and layoff. Much would have to do with when and where he shows up, who he's entered against, my guess if he didn't re- injure himself would be Kee. As Motion has options on which surface to run on. The type and class of the race should be telling.....if Motion is aggressive with him that's a good thing, if he's timid? entering a MW2L? well the odds will reflect it and this is about making money.....not proving a horse is as good or bad as one thinks. Never allow your ego to guide your bets......So the bottomline for this horse is where, when and against who.....oh yeah odds of course.....considering his last run I wouldn't want anything below 10-1 in a decent field. There is much more I look at, but space is limited and I know some of you are chomping at the bit to get back to the status quo......oh...one more thing...if Free World ever gets back to the races and is the same horse as when he left remember his name....he's a good one. Mike A
OK folks good news...I have one post left in me for a while.....so you can put on a pot of coffee and get ready for business as usual, just have to indulge me one more time. I talked about scrutinizing....no matter how much you like a horse, especially a young one with potential, you always have to see them in the light of day regardless whether they win or lose. I'll use Autobahn Legend as an example. It was obvious to me that he had potential even if his first run wasn't anything to write home about on paper. That was verified by his second run, when three horses went down early on the backstretch and his jock had to stop to a trot to avoid a fallen jockey. He quickly lost ground to last, but gathered himself up and finished a fact closing third paying 13.80 to show. So if you know what a thoroughbred is capable of you'd have to admit his run after trouble was pretty impressive. Take my word for it.....my guess is if you go by the fact that 95% of all trainers, owners and handicappers lose money on paper and apply that rule to who actually looked at the replay I figure about 2 of you did so my word will have to do. Ok...what's to scrutinize? Well the field...War Dancer won, Since that race he's won an allowance at Kee. beating a so so field. Came back to get third in the American Derby behind Noble's Tune and Admiral Kitten a couple of decent colts. Then second in the Centaur stakes against Free World.....I know anyone that lives in the south or mid west knows Free World, if you don't you should, that is if he gets back to the races. He was hurt after the race and hasn't been back to the track since. Ok..then he wins the Virginia Derby.....lets forget the Travers, that was wishful thinking. OK so War Dancer as he sits right now is a nice colt, not great but nice. How about the rest of the field that day in March? Not so much......off the top of my head only one of them has come back to eventually win. 3 haven't run back at all, two of them involved in the spill. The rest? well to their credit they've not run much...the horse that finished second Federal Agent has only run twice since March with a third and a 4th.....So as the field sits, except for War Dancer the field was so so. The time.....1:48:3.....Gulfstream's turf course was much slower than par when the course opened in early December. As time and racing progressed the course sped up considerably....by March it was down right fast....the times that day overall were fast. Mile races in 1:34's In fact my old pal Smash and Grab won on the engine that day running the fastest mile 1:34:2. So as far as final times go the race was ordinary. Slow early, fast late.....the horses in front of the spill having the course to themselves. So after running a mile in 1:36:4...or about ten lengths slower than most mile race that day they came home in 11:4. A nice time but any good thoroughbred should have been able to come home that fast. AutoBahn Legend gets points for coming home the fastest, get's more points for his early trouble to do so. Running the way he did after trouble in his second start showed tenacity and talent.....when you have that in a horse you have alot. Even with that though, given the fact the race was so so timewise and the fact that only War Dancer has done anything since....you can't over rate the race. Autobahn Legends next race would be a "teller" and I had to wait 6 months to see it. So A L comes back at PID's. I have to admit being a bit perplexed at Motion's decision to run on Tapeta instead of turf in NY, CD's or Kee......but I finally reconciled the fact that it would be an easy comebacker on AutoBahn Legend physically. He won...he showed the same Tenacity grinding them down late. He was much closer to the pace this time...getting the lead at the 1/8th pole and slowly opening up. He didn't win as much the best, he just won. Now it's a good thing he came back and won....but now comes reality...how good was the race overall....It was a small filed...7 horses. If one were lazy and didn't want to put in the time to look at everyone in the race to see just how good they were there is a way to tell...odds. First you have Autobahn Legend who was bet 6 ways to Sunday.....a horse who had quite a run second time out but was hurt, hadn't been back to the races for 6 months and was trying a new surface for the first time. To be bet that heavy you'd conclude the rest of them weren't much and if you look at the odds that guess would be bolstered. Of the remaining 6 horses the second choice was 9/2, third choice 6-1, then 13-1, 16-1, 20-1 and 63-1 respectively. So without looking (as I did) you could conclude he didn't beat much. What about the time? Ome mile and 70 yds in 1:43:1. Not bad not great overall but you have to see just what the times were that day and how good the horses who ran them were. I've run out of space, more to follow..Mike A
I have enjoyed the recent exchanges involving Mike, Sinatra, Ned, Stephen and Ron, although I have not fully understood all of the deeper thoughts. I have a problem with some of it. I expect that I have been playing this game for as long as most on here. I keep a simple but inclusive betting record, and I make a small net profit most years (i.e. winners minus losers minus expenses), but I have none of the certainty of purpose expressed by some. Indeed, the only certainty I have is that I don't understand things. This last week has proved the case perfectly. 18th Sept I bet 27 horses across three tracks. Not one horse won. Yesterday, I bet another 18 horses and again, not a single winner. But in between, 19th to 23rd Sept I bet a stack of winners including 10/1, 25/1, 20/1, 12/1, 8/1, 12/1 20/1, 29/1, 22/1 and 43/1. I promise you I used EXACTLY the same handicapping analysis methods, and betting strategy, but one day a horse gets pipped at the post, the next day the horse hangs on to win. I have looked long and hard at the results and there is no pattern to distinguish between winning and losing days. Just think how important a couple of inches can be in this game, not once or twice a month, sometimes each and every day. Perhaps my question is, why should we expect anything different? Race horses are free willed animals, they are not reliable machines. They do not run on a set of rails. They carry a small jockey on their back, but that jockey is a mere bystander on occasion. They can encourage a horse to go in the right direction. They can try to control the horse to go at the right speed (whatever that is). But if its not a going day for the horse, for whatever reason, the horse is not going to win. I realise I could take some of the uncertainty out of things by betting favourites rather than outsiders, but as I have often said before, I do this for fun, not to put food on the table. Best Regards - Bernard Downes
Friends; Very excited to have downloaded Friday’s Santa Anita card already. I haven’t looked it over, but excited nonetheless. I am looking forward to Saturday’s card as well. Belmont’s too. Freshmen football is Saturday morning, and the JV game isn’t until Monday, so I have some freedom here. The freshmen lost last Saturday 36 – 23, and the JV lost 24 – 14, so the beatings will just continue. It’s been a fascinating experience as a parent watching all of this. My son has already played eight full football games (four freshmen and four JV), and it isn’t even October. He is still fresh, healthy, and having a blast. All that despite having lost every game thus far. He says his teammates and coaches are awesome, so I guess winning isn’t everything. This is new territory for him since his youth football teams were always winning or contending for Championships. I’m going to have to start planning the menu for Saturday night at Chez Van Bastardo. Since I am going to be home watching races, I will need something to work on during the down time. Hmmm…. Later gators vs
Well said Ned: "The sharpies don't have to fool you as long as you are willing and able to fool yourself" "we [should} stop playing this game against each other, and start playing against ourselves,". A few years ago, because of Handigambling, I started to ask myself: "Myself, why did other people find the winning horse and how did I miss him? It’s all right there in the Form." So, I wrote this question and added it to my list of questions to ask myself before wagering. "Now, who is really going to win this race?" This is a loaded question for me. In my early years of handicapping, I used to pick a lot of fringe players. Horses that were the 4th, 5th 6th choices. They won sometimes but more often they lost. Studies do show that the top public picks win more often than the 2nd pick which wins more often than the 3rd pick ad nauseum. Hence, the question, who is going to win the race? Upon reflection, I will either verify my pick or maybe see that the favorite can't be beaten. (Another question/statement I ask myself: If you can't beat the favorite, don't.) A recent example was the Pennsylvania Derby. I initially picked Fury Kapcori but after rereading my question to myself: “Now, who is really going to win this race?”, it was almost comical that I initially sloughed off the favorite, Will Take Charge. “How can Will Take Charge not finish in front of Fury Kapcori?” In this case, I just passed the race. I kept Fury Kapcori as my pick in the BC Fantasy capping challenge which is of course a fantasy wager. As far as the first part of your statement, I think I am overcoming the fooling myself part. The second part about playing against ourselves and not against each other is taking a little more of an effort. In my rookie years (the first 25) I was essentially playing against “each other”, but that “each other” turned out to be me. Maybe my ego/alter ego. When I would pick a fringe player and they would come in, that always made my ego feel better than when I picked a 6/5 winner. I didn't go around bragging to others but maybe bragged to myself that I could pick longshots. (ocassionally) This is where I learned patience, choosing your wagering battles and keeping score with myself by the bottom line. I’m still learning or relearning this fascinating challenge of handicapping because of reading things on this forum which requires some thinking. By the way, the sign over my racetrack entrance which was in Latin translated something like this: “Abandon Hope, all ye who enter here” Hope is only hope, hot solid handicapping with a betting plan. Ron Zuercher
In my last post the last thing I mentioned was having your ducks in a row...the more the better.....the more you have the more you bet. How do you go about having those ducks? Last Feb. Steve and I were betting Gulfstream there was a maiden special on turf...the final race of the day. Neither of us had any interest in the race because the two horses we liked were 5-2 and 4- respectively.....they were North Slope and Oisten's Town. The latter a Darley homebred and the other a horse we both liked first turf coming off a dirt sprint. There was one horse in the race I wanted to watch......he was a firster by Smart Strike named Aotubahn Legend owned by Live Oak Plantation. He was 9-1 off of ok works, one would have thought he was a bit low in the odds considering some in there but to me there was a reason...enough that I put 20 atb on him for the hell of it. The reason was his momma......Autobahn Girl was a decent racehorse...both a dirt and turf winner who earned about 250,000. Her ability on the racetrack wasn't the thing it was the fact as a broodmare she had thrown some good ones. When the gates opened he broke and the jock decided to ride the rail. He was shuffled back then lost ground around the turn, 12 3/4's lengths back at the 1/8th pole.....he finished 10 back at the finish. I immediately called Steve and told him we had our first 50-1 payer the next time Autobahn Legend ran. Now why did I say that? the horse was beaten 10!!....If you watch enough races you get to know how a horse "goes".....it was obvious Autobahn Legend liked the surface, his stride was flawless....he never lost interest.....the race was won by North Slope, the race was run in an ordinary 1:36:2...so why the fuss? The fuss was North Slope came home in 22:2....running almost identical 1/8 splits 11:1 11:1...... Only two other horse's gained significant ground that last 1/4 and one was Autobahn Legend. Now for the ducks.....his next race was a 1/8 th further, he had a good post, he had a rider switch to Brian Hernandez, his momma was Autobahn Girl and it was a field of maidens most having run enough for me to see he needn't be the winged Pegasus....Watch that first race he ran....you can access it on Gulf's website feb 2nd 11th race.....he's the 4 horse...see if you can see what I mean about how he ran. He entered the starting gate March 9th 5th race at 51-1.....he was the two horse. I bet him heavy ATB and exacta's to War Dancer (yes that War Dancer) and Federal Agent. I won't tell you what happened.....you have to see it with your own eyes to believe it.......suffice to say he did not win, but why he didn't win has to be seen to believe.....follow him he's the 2 horse. The horse sustained a minor injury in the race (no wonder) and I watched for him to come back....I had hoped to catch him at Saratoga but he didn't start working again till late July.......He did finally come back, Graham Motion brought him back at PID's 1 mile and seventy MdSpWt's......he won and paid 2.60!!!!...of course for me that ship had sailed and I could have cursed my misfortune that day in March.....but that's horse racing. I believe he would have won that day at 51-1 beaten War Dancer who went on to win the big race at Colonial later in the year. Did I blame Hernandez? No....he did everything humanly possible, the fact the horse finished at all was a thrill.....really folks...watch the race.....you won't believe what happens....I had all my ducks in a row and an unforeseeable thing happens.....that's why you don't bet 3-1 or 8-5.....my exacta horses ran 1-2..and once again the only horse to close significant ground was AL.....his last 1/8th in 11 flat.....It felt good though....not many would have picked Autobahn Legend after his first go round......but watch the replay again and again.....you'll see what I saw.....Mike A
Turf Ruler Add my congratulations to your HG score. Thanks for answering my unasked questions about whether or not you are a regular superfecta player. Like Annie did previously here, by practicing, it looks like you are preparing for an assault on the Brreeders Cup. At the risk of sounding like I am tooting my own horn, I will say, I made a good pick. But you took that pick/contenders and turned the same $100 into a very nice score. We don't get paid for picks, we get paid for taking those picks and using them properly in the wide array of wagers that the track offers. A handful of pickable longshots per year can turn the horseplayer who is "hanging in there" into the black at the end of the year. Best of luck in the future. I'll get you next time! Ron Zuercher
In response (or should I say agreement) with Ned, I just gotta wonder why many handicappers tend to blame someone else when we lose. (Drugs, race was fixed, jock screwed up, etc.) instead of going back and figureing out why the horse who beat us won (assuming it was a horse we didn't give a chance to) I'm living close to the Rockford OTB and a guy who works there recently became a teller. He says the worst part of the job is the betters who come up and give him grief when they don't win! Have we as handicappers stooped that low? When I handicap a race, I try to take into account which trainer's horses will have "help" (as in better living thru chemicals!) when I handicap a race. (Dutrow on short rest was golden before they finally got the stones to suspened him) Uncle Steve used to complain about how little respect Cal horses got at the windows (or from the media) when they came east. Don't complain BET THE HORSE and be thankful for the extra money. If Brandon Meier is terrible on the front end and you see a speed horse with a different jock, bet him!!!!) This led me to a nice p4 and winner at the first form blog convention. Tough beat? Everyone who's played long enough has had some of those go the other way. When I used to be able to afford to play a lot I had a "shut out" and Arlington. I don't remember what Mike's wife said but my response was "listen closely tomorrow, I don't have 2 days like this in a row!) OK I'm done ranting now so I'll leave with this thought. Congratulate yourself when you win, blame yourself when you lose, and I'm pretty sure your results will improve.
Ned, I'm no guru....but I am smart and I am honest...if I win good, if I lose I admit I was wrong, see what I did wrong, file it away and try not to do it again. Most folks think you're being dishonest if you win.....they can't...so neither can you, but I'm not a masochist...I don't like losing. I will not consistently make the same mistakes as I see many others do. Someone hitting a good price horse now and again doesn't mean your handicapping is flawless....it's no different than Upset beating Man O War....it happens, doesn't mean it's cast in stone. I've learned betting percentages gets you 3-1 or less 80% of the time...betting probabilities gets you paid for your trouble. I bet probability......trying to get a Tapit to go a fast 1 1/8th will probably get you beat....it's happened time and time again yet folks keep pushing the money across. Don't get me wrong and uninformed public is my friend, but I hate to see friends lose for nothing. Picking up a racing form on any given day and picking a bunch of winners probably isn't going to happen.....planning, watching and picking your spots though? That does happen and if you're patient you get paid for your trouble. People think I'm an egomaniac.....that is the ones who don't know me.....I'm just honest, whether I win or lose, it's just that I win more than I lose.....I'll tell you something about ego.....it isn't confidence, not even close. The first time I stepped through a racetrack doors with my uncle he stooped before we got in and pointed to the facade above the door.....he said "they should have a sign there that says, Leave your ego here".....At the time I figured he meant no one is that good and betting with your ego thinking you are that good will only get you beat.....Now many years later I realize he meant more than that......being confident is one thing, not doing your due diligence or thinking because you picked a big priced horse now and again somehow made you infallible you were sadly mistaken. My biggest hits were planned out weeks sometimes months in advance......watching horse and knowing just how good they were then waiting for the proper spot to play them and when to lay off. First never expect a horse to do something it has already shown it can't do at least against horses of equal ability.......Giank Oak is a perfect example of a money sinkhole......He'd run just well enough to keep you on the hook, he hooked me once as a three year old, never again. Second be honest......whenever I hit with a price horse someone would invariably say next time the horse ran "Hey Mike A your horse is running"....my horse? He was my horse for one race, what I think of his chances that day depend where he's placed and if he's under 5-1? I wouldn't care what his chances are. Whether a horse you bet wins or loses you have to be honest about his performance. Never over exaggerate his win or underplay a loss....One mistake I see constantly is people putting too much importance on trouble lines. The slightest thing....a simple "Steadied' will inadvertently send folks scurrying to the windows. Any horse worth his salt should be able to overcome being steadied......but again it depends on how badly, who he ran against and what he did afterwards. What Afleet Alex did, falling to his knees, getting up and winning anyway was other worldly, I'd never seen anything like it, but it gives you a look at what a thoroughbred is capable of when they are good....it's a starting point...a reference. So when your little longshot gets bumped a bit and runs even thereafter you think this is a good thing? I've heard it too many times before....God if you bet Maragh alot all you see in the running lines are things like, Bumped start, steadied start, wide, steadied off heals, wide steadied.....he has to be one of the worse gate riders when getting position matters.....yet those horses don't all come back to win....You have to know just what any trouble a horse has really means and then depending on that summation, you have to know if the ones he's running against today are better than the last group. No One reason wins a horse race, the more ducks you have in a row the better. Mike A