09/23/2008 6:30PM

Win and You're In Derby? Etc.


Could you check on the pick 3 payoff for Thursday at Arlington for the 8th race- according to the results, the winners were 47/1, 8/1 and 3/1 and the pick 3 paid $42? (It says specifically 3 of 3. Either it was 2 of 3 or there was something somehow a bit on the fishy side?)

This was an Equibase error.  There were no correct three of three tickets so the bet was paid to ticketholders with two winners.


I don't like place betting because it's reliant on the odds of the 2nd place horse. Same for show betting, to another degree. The basic question is what do you guys/gals think is the best way to take a good swing on a longshot you kind of like, while at the same time backing up enough where you still get something for a good opinion if he runs 2nd or 3rd (which happens more often than they winning).

I think you have to play the longshot to win with gusto while realizing that a saver is just that...a saver.  You're probably not going to get rich on a saver bet.  The goal is to maximize the overlay in the win pool.  I don't have an aversion to place betting.  I rather like it when the price on my longshot is good, and I loathe the favorite (think he's off the board).  If my longshot is 20-1, I don't mind getting 8 or 10-1 to place if my top pick finds one better.  I think that's still a good play without going deep into your pocket for backwheels and all sorts of other exotic saver bets.  It's easy to lose oneself in the saver, and end up spending more "backing up" than on the main play.
As Tony Kelso mentioned in one of his responses to your question, it's all about the size of the bankroll.  If you can afford to spread, then by all means, go ahead.  If you're on a tighter budget, you may want to concentrate on Win plays as the meat of the bet with Place and minor part-wheel exactas as the savers.


...They don't dodge each over there.  However our group seems to dodge the tough ones.  Unlike Alans Mambo in Seattle...

The Euros don't dodge each other because there are only so many big races over there. If they want to win the big ones and make money, you have to run against each other.  In America, why would anyone face Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when they can run in a handful of other stakes races offered by slot-infused racinos, and still earn the "valuable" blacktype necessary to gain entrance into a stud farm?  The stakes schedule in the United States is unnecessarily bloated, and what we're left with are the good ones like the Commentators and Indian Blessings facing horses of questionable quality every week at short odds while the other runners in the division get a heaping helping of scraps elsewhere. A reduction of the number of stakes races would force the big guns to face each other more than once or twice a year.


Speaking of possibly misleading stats, how many horses have started from post 20+? 1-for-24 (almost the fair share) wouldn't be nearly as overwhelming as 1-for-94. Some horses have won from posts 16 and up... would they not have won from 20? I tend to find more fault and statistical holes than substance in most of these "historic" trends/achievements. But that's just me.

I believe the Derby has had 20 or more entrants on 16 occasions.


I was looking through my watch list, and I notice these horses that I have not heard from in a while. Can you tell me what happened to them?
Wanna Runner
Urban Guy
Ender's Shadow
Great Hunter
Greater Good
King of the Roxy
Dawn of War
B. B. Best

*Wanna Runner, a gelding trained by Bob Baffert, hasn't worked in almost a year. 
*Urban Guy passed away in 2007.
*Ender's Shadow, a gelding, last ran for $4,000 at Indiana Downs in May. 
*There was speculation that Great Hunter would join a string of Doug O'Neill-trained runners at Delaware Park this spring, but he hasn't worked out since the Dubai World Cup. 
*Greater Good, a gelding, finished last in his three most recent starts, and hasn't been out in over a year. 
*King of the Roxy hasn't worked out since May, but is still listed as a "Horse in Training" on the Team Valor website.
*Datrick stands at stud in Texas
*Dawn of War passed away in 2006
*B. B. Best last raced for a $50,000 tag at Monmouth in June.

Belgravia has been retired, We ( Zayat Stable & Coolmore) Sold him. To South America, too bad injuries got to him, because i thought he could be a serious horse at one point.
Justin Zayat


Our trainer is thinking about taking a couple of horses to Keeneland the first week of October, and is considering race placement.
Could you give me last beyers for ERDISTON (sept 1st-1st race) and AGASTACHE (9/13-llth race) Thanks a lot!
Stephen L. Taylor

Erdiston received a 77 on September 1 at Arlington while Agastache earned a 78 on September 13.


Hey Dan,
Hope you are doing well. I was wondering if you could give me the Beyer speed figures of two horses: a) a two year old colt named Hold Me Back, who won a maiden race at Arlington last week. and b) a horse by the name of Mr. Sidney who won an allowance race on the turf at Belmont the other day.
Thank You!

Hold Me Back got a 69 Beyer winning AP2 on Sep14.
Mr. Sidney got a 91 Beyer in BEL8 on Sep18.


Anybody know where I can find a complete list of U.S. stakes winners for 2007 and 2008?

The 2008 American Racing Manual should have a complete listing of last year's stakes winners.  If you have a subscription to Simulcast Daily on drf.com, there is a "Stakes Schedule" section for 2008 with charts for all the winners.


Steve T and gang,
Other possibilities for BC Sprint:
Intangeroo: 3 Gr. 1 wins
In Summation

Any opinions on whether these will run?

Rockerfeller is being pointed for the Vosburgh, and may run in the BC if he performs well in that Belmont prep.  In Summation will prep in the Ancient Title, and Rebellion may be pointed for the Turf Sprint.


PGM, I read somewhere (can't find it) that Douglas is going to California for Oak Tree this year.

From Steve Andersen's column posted on September 20:

"...Jockey Rene Douglas, the leading rider at the current Arlington Park meeting, will ride at Keeneland this fall and does not intend to ride full-time at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting, according to his agent Dennis Cooper. California agent Tom Knust said last week that Douglas would ride in California this fall, but Cooper insisted on Saturday that no such plans exist. Douglas will be in California for the Breeders’ Cup programs next month..."


I'm sure Dan will post his PPs and we can all go down memory lane one more time.........

Here they are:

Download PerfectDrift.pdf


Back tomorrow with my HandiGambling 103 selections, and a Past Champion Retrospective.

Take care,


larryk More than 1 year ago
JohnnyZ, Thanks for heads up. I was talking to Calvin and let me know some of comp. and because I had not looked at PPs for the race. It looks pretty tough. And rte baby races are hard to find so when is there it fills instantly and Philly has a huge draw from NY to Del/MD and maybe even West Virg. TonyKelso:Agreed with your pts. on the BC Trf Sprint and the race lineups. I wish they kept original days together and the new ones on the extra day
zarpo More than 1 year ago
handigambling contest $1 SF 1,4,5/1,4,5/1,4,5/3,6,12= $18 1,4,5/1,4,5/3,6,12/1,4,5= $18 1,4,5/3,6,12/1,4,5/1,4,5= $18 $1 TRI 1,4,5/1,4,5/1,3,4,5,6,12= $24 3,6,12/1,4,5/1,4,5= $18 $2 TRI 4/1,5/1,5= $4
tony kelso More than 1 year ago
Hi SlewofDamascus: True story. I bet a NW1ot turf race at Suffolk and I saw so much "extreme B.S." in that race due to jockey strategy and odd running styles compared to the race's PPs I decided I would NEVER bet a typical day at Suffolk ever again. I did bet 2008 Mass Cap day just because of the big purses and Commentator. So maybe I'll take another stab in 2009. Maybe.
noodles on my back More than 1 year ago
Pardon the intrusion, but I feel compelled to clarify some recent nonsense on this blog. As a lifelong racing observer and one-time racetracker, I thoroughly enjoy the kind of discussion in this forum and others like it. I particularly enjoy a healthy debate of differing opinions—always welcoming a contrarian viewpoint, which is a fundamental of successful handicapping. Everyone’s favorite villain has provoked much passionate response, albeit much of it about style and not substance, and has been the focus of scorn and ridicule. However, given the over-the-top fantasies concocted by particular contributors (with no communal rebuke-Dan’s tepid plea aside) I feel obligated to speak, for whatever it’s worth. Tinky has very strong opinions and is not shy about the force with which he presents them. He’d be the first to admit that tact is not his strong suit, and at times finds himself in a position to admit he’s wrong—imagine that. But he won’t reach that point without persuasive argumentation with a factual basis. I know this from extensive firsthand experience. I’ll also attest to the fact that Tinky has supported himself solely in the thoroughbred industry for the better part of three decades in numerous capacities and conducts business and consultation at a very high level, here and abroad. His depth and breadth of knowledge in this area provides a very solid base for his opinions. None of that really matters however in the context of a debate—the arguments either succeed or fail on their own merit and the person’s name making them shouldn’t matter. I didn’t intend to simply defend Tinky, nor would he want me to, I just wanted to dispel some of the recent silliness and personal attacks.
tony kelso More than 1 year ago
BC Turf Sprint: I am very biased. I LOVE the turf sprints! But beyond my affections for turf sprinting, I think a logical case can be made for including a BC Turf Sprint in the BC program. A lot of our top sires are shuttling to Australia (Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday), or have shuttled to Australia in the past (Street Cry, Royal Academy, Dehere, More Than Ready, Danehill, Danehill Dancer). 98% of the races there are on grass, and most of those races are turf sprints (races of 7f or less). A big win in a BC Turf Sprint could help launch a horse's stud career in Australia or South Africa (where they also run on grass) or maybe even Ireland . The other reason to love the BC Turf Sprint is typically turf sprints offer a lot of VALUE. A lot of people couldn't pick a winner in a turf sprint if you gave them the next day's paper. Embrace the green, that's what I say. I do agree with Dan (and probably everyone else) that they should have kept the Distaff on BC Saturday and put the Turf Sprint on Friday.
Rick More than 1 year ago
Did I just read a post from someone named noodles....defending someone named Tinky, (not that there is anything wrong with that, lol). That sure wasn't obvious enough. Someone may not be as clever as they think. Everyone who can read can decide for themselves how it all came out and I am sure most have.
Steve T. More than 1 year ago
GunBow, Did somebody change grades on the Kentucky Derby and Preakness when I wasn't looking?? Funny Cide won both. Kelso raced 63 times (and won HOY at age 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) and Forego 57 (HOY at 4, 5 and 6), they were and are two of the all time Iron Horses. P.S. LOL, you need to consider decaf before bedtime...
slewofdamascus More than 1 year ago
Thank You, Laura!
Calvin Carter More than 1 year ago
Alan, Please change my Morvich pick to Soul City Slew. johnnyz, Thanks for the heads-up on Lord Justice. I'll add him to my watch list. I, too, have Ice Road on my watch list. I'm also interested to see how well Rockin Road performs. His pedigree is pretty good with 5 strains of La Troienne and 3 strains of Frizette. His sire, Rock Slide, is a full brother to Mineshaft and Tomisue's Delight.
tony kelso More than 1 year ago
Midwest Ed: There's a saying in racing - you can't cash if you worry about cashing (a lot of tickets). I would reccommend thay you stop playing show bets (they rarely pay decent returns), and pass the types of races you don't always do well at. Then take that money and be aggressive on races YOU REALLY LIKE. For example, I like one turn maiden special weight races. I'd like to think I have a big edge in those affairs. You might like, for example, two turn turf routes. Suppose you had a really good system for turf routes. So focus on those turf races! Or on whatever races you do well at.