09/23/2008 5:30PM

Win and You're In Derby? Etc.

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Dan-
Could you check on the pick 3 payoff for Thursday at Arlington for the 8th race- according to the results, the winners were 47/1, 8/1 and 3/1 and the pick 3 paid $42? (It says specifically 3 of 3. Either it was 2 of 3 or there was something somehow a bit on the fishy side?)


This was an Equibase error.  There were no correct three of three tickets so the bet was paid to ticketholders with two winners.

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I don't like place betting because it's reliant on the odds of the 2nd place horse. Same for show betting, to another degree. The basic question is what do you guys/gals think is the best way to take a good swing on a longshot you kind of like, while at the same time backing up enough where you still get something for a good opinion if he runs 2nd or 3rd (which happens more often than they winning).
Thoughts?
Greg


I think you have to play the longshot to win with gusto while realizing that a saver is just that...a saver.  You're probably not going to get rich on a saver bet.  The goal is to maximize the overlay in the win pool.  I don't have an aversion to place betting.  I rather like it when the price on my longshot is good, and I loathe the favorite (think he's off the board).  If my longshot is 20-1, I don't mind getting 8 or 10-1 to place if my top pick finds one better.  I think that's still a good play without going deep into your pocket for backwheels and all sorts of other exotic saver bets.  It's easy to lose oneself in the saver, and end up spending more "backing up" than on the main play.
As Tony Kelso mentioned in one of his responses to your question, it's all about the size of the bankroll.  If you can afford to spread, then by all means, go ahead.  If you're on a tighter budget, you may want to concentrate on Win plays as the meat of the bet with Place and minor part-wheel exactas as the savers.

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...They don't dodge each over there.  However our group seems to dodge the tough ones.  Unlike Alans Mambo in Seattle...
larryk


The Euros don't dodge each other because there are only so many big races over there. If they want to win the big ones and make money, you have to run against each other.  In America, why would anyone face Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when they can run in a handful of other stakes races offered by slot-infused racinos, and still earn the "valuable" blacktype necessary to gain entrance into a stud farm?  The stakes schedule in the United States is unnecessarily bloated, and what we're left with are the good ones like the Commentators and Indian Blessings facing horses of questionable quality every week at short odds while the other runners in the division get a heaping helping of scraps elsewhere. A reduction of the number of stakes races would force the big guns to face each other more than once or twice a year.

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Speaking of possibly misleading stats, how many horses have started from post 20+? 1-for-24 (almost the fair share) wouldn't be nearly as overwhelming as 1-for-94. Some horses have won from posts 16 and up... would they not have won from 20? I tend to find more fault and statistical holes than substance in most of these "historic" trends/achievements. But that's just me.
C


I believe the Derby has had 20 or more entrants on 16 occasions.

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Hi!
I was looking through my watch list, and I notice these horses that I have not heard from in a while. Can you tell me what happened to them?
Wanna Runner
Urban Guy
Ender's Shadow
Great Hunter
Greater Good
King of the Roxy
Datrick
Dawn of War
Belgravia
B. B. Best
Thanks!
Amanda.


*Wanna Runner, a gelding trained by Bob Baffert, hasn't worked in almost a year. 
*Urban Guy passed away in 2007.
*Ender's Shadow, a gelding, last ran for $4,000 at Indiana Downs in May. 
*There was speculation that Great Hunter would join a string of Doug O'Neill-trained runners at Delaware Park this spring, but he hasn't worked out since the Dubai World Cup. 
*Greater Good, a gelding, finished last in his three most recent starts, and hasn't been out in over a year. 
*King of the Roxy hasn't worked out since May, but is still listed as a "Horse in Training" on the Team Valor website.
*Datrick stands at stud in Texas
*Dawn of War passed away in 2006
*B. B. Best last raced for a $50,000 tag at Monmouth in June.

Amanda,
Belgravia has been retired, We ( Zayat Stable & Coolmore) Sold him. To South America, too bad injuries got to him, because i thought he could be a serious horse at one point.
Justin Zayat


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Dan-
Our trainer is thinking about taking a couple of horses to Keeneland the first week of October, and is considering race placement.
Could you give me last beyers for ERDISTON (sept 1st-1st race) and AGASTACHE (9/13-llth race) Thanks a lot!
Stephen L. Taylor


Erdiston received a 77 on September 1 at Arlington while Agastache earned a 78 on September 13.

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Hey Dan,
Hope you are doing well. I was wondering if you could give me the Beyer speed figures of two horses: a) a two year old colt named Hold Me Back, who won a maiden race at Arlington last week. and b) a horse by the name of Mr. Sidney who won an allowance race on the turf at Belmont the other day.
Thank You!
Riley


Riley,
Hold Me Back got a 69 Beyer winning AP2 on Sep14.
Mr. Sidney got a 91 Beyer in BEL8 on Sep18.
Alan


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Anybody know where I can find a complete list of U.S. stakes winners for 2007 and 2008?
Alex


The 2008 American Racing Manual should have a complete listing of last year's stakes winners.  If you have a subscription to Simulcast Daily on drf.com, there is a "Stakes Schedule" section for 2008 with charts for all the winners.

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Steve T and gang,
Other possibilities for BC Sprint:
Intangeroo: 3 Gr. 1 wins
Rockerfeller
In Summation
Rebellion

Any opinions on whether these will run?
billg


Rockerfeller is being pointed for the Vosburgh, and may run in the BC if he performs well in that Belmont prep.  In Summation will prep in the Ancient Title, and Rebellion may be pointed for the Turf Sprint.

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PGM, I read somewhere (can't find it) that Douglas is going to California for Oak Tree this year.
Greg


From Steve Andersen's column posted on September 20:

"...Jockey Rene Douglas, the leading rider at the current Arlington Park meeting, will ride at Keeneland this fall and does not intend to ride full-time at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting, according to his agent Dennis Cooper. California agent Tom Knust said last week that Douglas would ride in California this fall, but Cooper insisted on Saturday that no such plans exist. Douglas will be in California for the Breeders’ Cup programs next month..."

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I'm sure Dan will post his PPs and we can all go down memory lane one more time.........
slewofdamascus


Here they are:

Download PerfectDrift.pdf

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Back tomorrow with my HandiGambling 103 selections, and a Past Champion Retrospective.

Take care,

Dan