07/28/2007 2:42PM

Whitney Afternoon Update


--Some guy at the Siro's seminar came up to me after we were done with the card to tell me that he thought Private Lap in the first had been sent here merely as a travelling companion for Diabolical and the horse should be pitched from consideration. Private Lap ($11.00) won a four-way photo by a neck over 38-1 Wood Winner, who I noticed after the race was 1-for-1 at the nine-furlong distance in a race where he earned his career-best Beyer.

--Nick Zito picked up where he left off last year (six debut winners) taking the baby race in the second with first-timer War Pass($15.80), a $180k Cherokee Run yearling from an old Claiborne Farm broodmare line. War Pass broke last in the field of 11 but rushed up to outduel favored Globalization in 21.98 and 45.02 before pulling away by 2 3/4 lengths over 18-1 Mott firster Commandeered in 1:10.26,

--If you liked the sixth race at Churchill Downs June 13, you're probably having a good Saratoga. Warn, the runner-up in that maiden grass race, returned to win the grass maiden race here opening day, and the winner, Thorn Song, came right back to take today's N1x third at 22-1. That mythical $6300 ticket of a 10x10x7x9 $1 pick-four play mentioned last night is still alive and just might pay the requisite $12,601 to show a profit before withholding taxes. It needs a 1234569/123456781012 to get home.

Oh wait. It just died. Fresh Episode, one of my only two throwouts in the fourth, just won at 47-1. Oh well. The nice thing about making mind bets is that all you can lose is your mind.

SaratogaShawn More than 1 year ago
Y'know what's sad is in Race 1 I saw the career-best Beyer for Private Lap and ignored it and keyed Fire Hero in the exactas instead with Wood Winner and others. It can be a frustrating game
ml/nj More than 1 year ago
BTW the "some guy" =asked= about Private Lap (and chucked at your comment about the goat) and he also loved Thorn Song, but he didn't get the 22-1 you reported. (Was he cheated?)
Steven Crist More than 1 year ago
Shawn, I'm not familiar with the Pro Rated system, but I'll redboard you one way of coming up with Fresh Episode: He actually had the best career Beyer in the field -- an 86. And runner-up Need the Write Off had the second best (an 80.) I know FE's 86 came six starts ago, before he took the seemingly negative Contessa-to-Divitto barn change, and that his recent races were dismally uncompetitive, but sometimes this seemingly irrational "system" picks a very big-priced winner.
SaratogaShawn More than 1 year ago
Steve, Great blog! I believe that Fresh Episode was the choice under an ancient system known as Pro-Rated Longshots. Any thoughts on that system in general? I know the originator has updated it over the years. I'm just a casual horseplayer and I picked up his first book years ago at a yard sale and it has produced some winners over the years. BTW..the book pales in comparison to "Exotic Betting"
AJV More than 1 year ago
I had the 47-1 shot in the 4th! Only problem was that is was John Campo's Horse with Channing riding and he finished dead last. Did manage to hit a $6.80 Pick 3 at Monmouth though! Almost as good as a $163,000 pick 4!
toddsincharge More than 1 year ago
This Diana reminded me of Barclay Tagg calling Nobiz a triple crown horse. Then the chalkeaters made hin 2-5 and he ran third. Fav players love when a trainer talks up a horse in a competitive race. I love it too.
HorseRun More than 1 year ago
Has To be the toughest opening week i have ever seen at Saratoga, and thats saying something !!!!
toddsincharge More than 1 year ago
Fresh Episode ran well on the inner track for Contessa. He looked like he had a future. That one was for those of us who follow NY racing all year.