05/02/2008 9:37PM

What the Will-pays Say


Over $2.02 million was wagered on the Oaks-Derby double, and I've found the will-pays to be at least as good a guide to likely Derby odds as the advance betting on the race itself. Below is the list of payoffs, the percentage of the live pool they represent, and the equivalent win odds based on those percentages (including Kentucky's 16 percent win-pool takeout). I've also listed the advance-wagering win-pool odds as of 6:30 p.m., with just $446,183 in that pool:

I'd recommend caution over some of the anomalies in the advance-betting win pool vs. the willpay equivalents, like Eight Belles being just 8-1 as opposed to 20-1 or Big Truck being 20-1 instead of 80-1. The DD pool was over four times larger than the Friday win pool, and it's hard to imagine many people other than casual visitors and souvenir collectors buying their tickets a day in advance.

A few other observations on the willpays:

*53.3 percent of the total betting was on just 3 of the 20 Derby horses -- Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro.

*Court Vision was a very surprising fourth choice in the betting, at the equivalent of just 12-1.

*Seven horses are at least twice their morning-line price in the equivalent-odds, including Tale of Ekati (15) at 31-1, Cool Coal Man (20) at 43-1, Bob Black Jack (20) at 51-1 and Recapturetheglory (20) at 58-1.

*Big Truck is the early leader over Anak Nakal for Longest of the Long

LB More than 1 year ago
I hope my previous blog gets on. I'm one of those older folks- you know, the one's that get confused at the windows, then you get shut out. And this blogging stuff is still new to me. However, I thanked you for the information on the oaks/derby dbl. Then I went on to complain about how little of this is presented on TV racing. The horseplayer gets screwed in many different ways. Perhaps, we should form a association so we could organize efforts to communicate with those who should treat us like customers. I know that won't happen, I'm just venting.
Chisox More than 1 year ago
Steve, Thanks for the will pays for the double. Amazingly they were not posted on the Derby or the Oaks website. Go Colonel John!.
dfwbuck More than 1 year ago
flip--- thanks for the update on somebeach...i thought i heard he was NOT coming south of the border for the Pace or the Jug? any truth to that rumor?
meadowlake59 More than 1 year ago
Would have preferred if Bsharpsonata lasted today but still had PS (along with everyone else). Now I will root on my deep longshot play, BBJ, to reprise the role of War Emblem in "Stealing the Derby--The Sequel". Of course I'll settle for CJ or Pyro but if BBJ does it, the Juleps are on me!!! :)
mark c More than 1 year ago
To Spike I agree 100% but,sadly,a boycott by horseplayers is just a fantasy. I am prepeared to leave the racetrack for the casino at the end of this Belmont meet. I am sure my $$$ won't be missed by NYRA
Arazi More than 1 year ago
With one more big day remaining and by looking at the results of Friday, is my feeling true that today is not a good betting card? Yesterday, I couldn't make myself bet a single race becaues of the track condition and standout favorites except Giant Gizmo. I went through the few races and got the feeling that it could be another formful day except non-stakes races maybe and the KD itself. So far, I've just come up with a double (Einstein/Monba, Cowboy Cal) and the win on both Monba and Cowboy cal in the derby. As a longshot player, this looks like killing fields for longshots. Not interested in betting non-stakes races. Wouldn't it be a good idea to focus on Belmont and try to squeeze some money from there? Tried to figure out the all stakes pick 4 at CD but feeling that only KD could offer a value play. Hope Steve's Live Broadcast will continue today....which was much more fun to read than actual racing yesterday. Truly wish that all these AWD companies could learn a little from Steve's coverage and realize how interesting they can make the racing. I read all the problems some of these guys are facing with God-knows-how-many AWD companies. Blissfully, I have an account with HPI which offers tracks from all over the world.
SamG More than 1 year ago
From CD`s website: Track Maintenance Time of Report: Saturday, May 3 - 8:24 a.m. EDT What is the condition of the main track? The main track is: Sloppy What did you do to the main track this morning? Due to overnight rain, morning training at Churchill Downswas cancelled. The track was worked overnight and squeezed to remove excess moisture. The track is being harrowed to allow for further drying, and it will be sealed before today's first race. Today's weather forecast in Louisville calls for mostly to partly cloudy skies with possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. The high temperature is expected to be 70 degrees. What is the condition of the turf course? The turf course is: Yielding Where is the temporary rail set on the turf course today? Lane 1 (on the hedge)
mike More than 1 year ago
The implied odds on Z Fortune (deduced by Steve via the DD pool) are rougly 14-1. He ran a 102 Beyer in The Ark Derby after a very wide trip. Adjust for the trip and he ran a Beyer in the range of 108 to 112. Bounce theorist may pitch him, but I think he's clearly the horse to key on. In fact, I think he'll beocme the second NY-bred to win the Derby in six yrs. Flip, Court Vision is a complete and total pitch, imo. His Wood performance just wasn't impressive. He's the type of that you look at (on a superficial level) and think he'll like the extra 1/8 of a mile. In reality, his pace figures are so ungodly awful that he just doesn't fit. Then again you had Volponi and I did not.
easygoer More than 1 year ago
From the guy who gave you A to the Croft in the Oaks-- (but this time I'm actually betting): I've always wanted to go to the window and say: "Box the 18-19-20" so that's what I'm gonna do. Then I'm throwing in some combinations with the 15. Then I'm taking a deep breath and hopping on the 18 across the board. Please feel free to laugh.
ml/nj More than 1 year ago
Okay. Time to make a fool of myself! I think that the Bluegrass was the strongest of the preps when the prep fields were drawn. I think breeding matters. So I'm going to take 25-1 or so on Monba. Maybe I'll throw in a few Monba-Visionaire exactas too.