06/03/2008 10:10PM

What Price Big Brown?


Here's how they bet the last three Belmont Stakes where a Triple Crown was on the line:

I think it's safe to say that the 2004 template is the one that's going to most closely resemble the 2008 version. Big Brown obviously is going to be odds-on, though probably not as short as his 1-5 Preakness price. Smarty Jones went from being 0.70-1 in the Preakness to 0.35-1 in the Belmont, but he didn't face as well-regarded a new shooter as Casino Drive, who looks like a clear second choice somewhere around 7-2 or 4-1. Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati figure to be the distant, gapped-out third and fourth choices, similar to their Derby finishes.

Rock Hard Ten and Eddington were 6-1 and 14-1 in the 2004 Belmont after running second and third in Smarty Jones's Preakness, but Macho Again and Icabad Crane figure to be significantly longer than that. Anak Nakal, D'Tara and Ready's Echo all could be 30-1 and up despite being trained by recent Belmont winners Pletcher and Zito.

The Belmont and supporting card (Acorn, Just a Game, Manhattan, True North, Woody Stephens) will be drawn Wednesday, when racing resumes at Belmont with rain expected. The long-range forecasts are for some more possible thunderstorms Friday but a pretty clear Belmont day with tempertaures poking up into the 80's.

Shawn More than 1 year ago
bochalls: Thanks for Operation Red Dawn. Made a tidy little profit at 2-1
dfwbuck More than 1 year ago
in response to don's question about Presque Isle, but not aimed at him or specifically anyone in anyway, shape or form... i find it hard to believe that presque isle is reliant upon takeout to keep its doors open, they have SLOTS and are 90 minutes from cleveland where there are none. There's their revenue. That track wouldn't be open if not for SLOTS. People talk about too many tracks out there, most of the new ones were built to satisfy state laws allowing them to have one-armed bandits (as opposed to the two-armed bandits being discussed on these blogs recently). Hard to believe many "fans" are against Big Brown because of his connections. I'd bet that many of you root for sports teams who are owned by less than reputable owners. Iavarone, regardless of his history is merely the owner of an amazing racehorse who has beaten every horse that has been entered against it. A triple crown will bring alot of MAINSTREAM press to our beloved sport and most of it will be positive as it has been so far. Wouldn't we all like more interest in the sport to fill our pools?? Maybe people will decide to place some bets on the horses at these tracks that are SLOT parlors. Or be interested in purchasing racehorses so we wouldn't have to rely on major consortiums like IEAH to provide us with horses.
Master Long Shot More than 1 year ago
Steve, I am so glad to see that people have already given Big Brown the Triple Crown. I am going to savor the huge payouts on Saturday while I cash out at the IRS window. We will have to wait another year before a Triple Crown winner is crowned. I enjoy it when the betting public gets rapped up in the hype and hope of a Triple Crown winner because it makes my payday very large at the IRS window. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see another TC winner but you have to finish first not fifth or worse in the Belmont as Big Brown will do this Saturday!
Keen observer More than 1 year ago
C'mon Steve, your statements are far too conservative for the way this race really shapes up. Casino Drive beat a bunch of 100-1 shots in Japan and that was months ago, and he beat a soft field in the Peter Pan. He wouldn't have a legitimate chance against Big Brown's A game if it was the 3rd at Aqueduct in the middle of winter. Now you want to say he'll be here with the Triple Crown on the line and be higher than 1-to-5? Why just the souvenir money alone will make for a huge difference between his price in any random race and that in the Belmont on Triple Crown day. What percentage of the fans at Belmont on Saturday (120,000 plus, so I hear) do you think will be there to watch Casino Drive? The fair over-under line on Big Brown's off time odds is .20-to-1 and don't bet too much on the over. The rest of the field is essentially comprised of throw-outs and Casino Drive is only of interest to anyone because of the mare. Well guess what: the best pedigree for the distance is that of Big Brown. Just imagine what Big Brown's last two races would have been like had he raced in the 2-path both times. Then compare that to the 100-1 shots Casino Drive beat in U.S. workout time. Please adjust your outlook accordingly.
Tyke from the Cackalacky More than 1 year ago
Steve, if I told you in January (even in March) that a very, very lightly raced import from Japan would be the 4:1 second choice to win the 1 1/2 mile, Grade 1 Belmont Stakes you probably would have dismissed me as a lunatic. I know it seems Casino Drive is the best hope for a competitive race but is that true? Yes, he has the right bloodlines, stamina on both the top and bottom, blew away a local field and then blew away the Peter Pan field but his third race will be 12 furlongs against Grade 1 runners. Is Big Brown really so good that our best trainers with their best three year olds don't have a shot? None of them can compete? I'll take the field here and bet that something happens to Big Brown and Casino Drive melts down in the last 8th.
bochalls More than 1 year ago
Steve, I follow NY racing religiously (from way down here in south Louisiana) and have been compiling a list of horses to watch for a few years now...something I recommend all serious players do! My list is exclusively for turf runners, and the process is simple: break the race down into 1/4m segments and the last fraction (which may be 1/4, 5/16, 3/8 etc..) and look for fast segments of the race. What a great way to find winners. Some are not good prices but Them There Eyes repeated at 6-1 and Extra Zip won at 4-1. I am sitting on Operation Red Dawn running Thurs at Bel. Other 3 star picks on my list include: T Harry, Timberah, Reina Isabella, One Good Man and Criminal Power. Look for these horses when they appear again at Bel. All finished very fast in their last race and are set for a big effort. Forgive me if some of the above are career losers but this list is made with NO REGARD to a horses' lifetime record, just their last race. GOOD LUCK, and please don't bet a Big Brown Casino Drive exacta as they will not run 1-2.
Flipper Dawson More than 1 year ago
Flipper has notes for Saturday.. There may very well be free money at Belmont. To keep it quiet, and the odds up, all I can type in is the word "minus." I realize this is not fair to new poster boys, but sooner or later you will catch on. Just try to be near a tote board on Sat., to see how the betting is going. ------------------------------ This deal of no solids the day before the operation sucks. Just clear liquids. So, I am wondering--would clear vodka and grapefruit juice be OK? Calling my doc now.
$BILL More than 1 year ago
STEVE, Im trying to find out who the last horse to win the Belmont Stakes without having a race over "big sandy" was it GO&GO?
Wayne80 More than 1 year ago
If the Japanese money comes flowing in, as I suspect, Casino Drive may be a strong second choice at 5-2 or even less. And it may actually be warranted.
Sean More than 1 year ago
I won with Birdstone in 2004 (and was not happy about it, I loved Smarty) and I'm looking at Tale of Ekati. Big Brown is winning this race if it's run at a normal pace. Casino Drive, in my opinion, has no chance. How many Peter Pan winners (Sightseeing, Purge) came into the Belmont hyped and got smoked? I like Tale of Ekati because he's a horse like Birdstone that can get the distance, will be making a run down the stretch and can pick up the pieces if it falls apart. The big difference between Big Brown & Smarty is the fact Big Brown can relax. Even if other horses try to get him going, I really feel like Kent and the horse will not be baited into a duel.