10/02/2008 2:08PM

Weird Double Carry

Email

3:00 pm: When Belmont drew Thursday's card last Sunday, no one could have known there would be a $201k double-carryover in the pick-six and that some races might have to be taken off a soggy turf course. As it turned out, the two races that were taken off this morning were the first two legs of the pick-6 (the last two legs are still on the grass), and it radically changed the complexion of those two races and the wager.

Fields of 15 and 14 became fields of 7 and 6, and the first leg was a doozy: Only 4 of the 7 had tried the dirt, and had fared so badly that favoritism fell to two who hadn't: Night in Tunisa, a Pletcher second-timer, and City Sneakers, a Rice third-timer. I usually go the other way when the public overbets grass horses making their dirt debuts, but in this case the four dirt veterans were so hopeless that I went along for the ride and made the two grass runners my first-leg A and B and pressed Night in Tunisa. He came through in what I consider more of a lucky guess than good handicapping, paying $5.40 and keeping my C's alive for at least one more race:

You can see just how many strong opinions I had today that Night in Tunisa turned out to be the closest thing to a single on the card for me.


3:15 pm: Well, that didn't last too long. Mondo Diverso at 31-1 won leg 2 as the three favorites and I ran 2-5-6 in a field of six. I never seriously considered using Mondo Diverso, who I've chased a few times on the grass recently, and this sure looked like a race where you were a heavy favorite to get by with the two favorites.

The question now becomes whether there's a realistic shot at a gargantuan triple-carry. How many people went more than three-deep in what looked on paper like the most manageable field in the sequence? If you were going to hit an "all" button, the first leg looked much shakier. One more goofy winner and we're playing for over a million tomorrow.


5:00 pm: We got one more semi-goofy winner, All the Way Home at $23.60 in leg 3, so even with a pair of $5.20 winners after that, only 2 of the 12 in the finale are covered in the pick-6: If either Theatrical View (currently 19-1) or Qualquin (currently 7-1) wins the 9th, one wizard gets $540,334. Anything but a #6 or #12, and Friday's pool starts with that much in the kitty. Consos on those 10 uncovered ones range from $1304 on favored Delta Weekend to $37,661 on 57-1 Sweet Justice.


6:30 pm: Je ne sais pas how Je Suis Shiekh wired the finale at $29.00, but we're playing for vast sums tomorrow now that there's officially a $540,334 carryover into Friday's card. The lineup, which consists of four (!) turf sprints (weather permitting) and two dirt sprints:

Race 4: 3+F MdSpWt -- 7f-WT -- Field of 10 (inc. one entry) + 1 MTO
Race 5: 3+ Alw N4x/OC100k -- 6f -- Field of 6
Race 6: 3+NY MdSpWt -- 6f -- Field of 9
Race 7: 3+F Clm35kN2L -- 6f-IT -- Field of 12 + 2 AE's (2 entries)
Race 8: 3+ AlwN3x/OC75k -- 7f-WT -- Field of 9 + 2 MTO's
Race 9: 3+FNY AlwN1x -- 6f-IT -- Field of 11 + 5 MTO's

On a more purely sporting note, Friday is also Opening Day at Keeneland, with two Grade 1 races on the card: Precious Kitten vs. Dreaming of Anna, Rutherienne and five others in the $400k First Lady for filly turf milers and Mani Bhavan vs. 6 in the $500k Alcibiades for 2-year-old fillies.

Van Savant More than 1 year ago
Folks; Flip Dawson is a North American treasure. I suggest that you indulge yourselves.
Walt More than 1 year ago
Amazing: Just had a chance to look at the entries for tomorrow at [Belmont], and I can't ever remember seeing a card with FIVE (!) turf sprints on the same program with not a single route race on turf (and only one "route" race overall, a one-turn mile that is the 3rd race). Just shows you how far we have come. While I know turf sprints have been popular for years (I remember when patrons used to ask NYRA to card them), this is more a reflection of the sport as a whole. And as far as NYRA carding maiden claimers at the end of the card, I used to see NYRA do that a lot even before the pick-six was introduced in New York in 1985. What I have seen much more of the past couple of years has been turf races carded in the final slot myself (and is NYRA required to card turf races even on days when it is almost certain such will come off the turf, as was the case with the 10th Race on Sunday's program, which was carded for turf anyway even though two Graded stakes (Pilgrim and Miss Grillo) had already been postponed to Wednesday when entries for that card were drawn last Friday?).
Mike D. More than 1 year ago
*There is a method that only shows once a week. It involves playing a certain exactor one way, using the morning line. In the last 2 weeks, it is 3 for 3.** Hey, Flipper: If it only shows once a week, how is it 3 for 3 in the last 2 weeks? Also, what's your "big edge over US bettors" in today's pick six at Belmont? If it's secret, of course, I understand.
Flipper Dawson More than 1 year ago
Dime Supers are here to stay. Then we have the Super high Five. Re the Secret Play, laugh all you want--many scores have I taken with the SP. Today, playing the Pick 6, with a big edge over US bettors. Always, I look for the edge. There is a method that only shows once a week. It involves playing a certain exactor one way, using the morning line. In the last 2 weeks, it is 3 for 3. There is nothing like playing a "cold exactor" to wake you up in the morning.
ElAngelo More than 1 year ago
Brian: I have to disagree that the dime superfectas hurt the handle. There was $1.856 million bet on the super in the 2004 Classic (no dime supers) versus $2.559 million last year. I'll concede some of that is the general population getting more comfortable with the wager, but I'd love to see some hard evidence that it actually lowers the handle before agreeing with you. As for the line-clogging issue, I'm not going to dispute that's an on-track issue, but there are ways to deal with it, such as simply designating certain windows/terminals for dime supers only. Given that most money is bet offsite, there's no reason to punish the rest of the racing population so a few hundred people don't get shut out at the track.
Wayne80 More than 1 year ago
I'm gonna name my next horse SECRET PLAY.
buffalo joe More than 1 year ago
My dear laughing Bill- Apearently you sir are new to this blog. This is not my secret play, I was only giving examples of what was taught to me some 50 years ago. I can not explain why my second thread was posted so late. And further I don't care, I was simply putting it out to give some of our fellow bloggers an insight to what Flipper was aluding to in his quest for the big high 5 hit. You sir not even knowing me, have besmirched my integerity by accusing me deliberating past posting in an attempt to decieve my friends. when in fact if that was my intention I would have had a least 2 winners maybe 3. Besides past posting should only be reserved for actual bookmakers, there still are a few plying that trade in the US. Now I'm going to give you a pass on this as you are new to the blog, and besides a like making people laugh. And if you can laugh in this economy God Bless you friend, I've been depressed for about 2 years. So if you ever need another laugh or help with a race(handicapping) just shout out I'm here for you and all bloggers. If you want to see my real picks click on Dan's blog I participate in a couple of handicapping contests there weekly as do about 50 others. I hope I cleared this matter up, to everyones satisfaction.
Don Reed More than 1 year ago
Boy, are people touchy about this Secret Plaything, or what? I'm staying out of this one. Don't explain it to me - Please! May I suggest, instead, the prayer, "Winning Colors, Out of 36 Red" - (Recite prior to hitting "Enter Bets"): "With the magic potion The color blue, My initial winning triple Will guarantee a corrupt DQ. "And with the secret elixir The color green, My Super bet will fail To appear on the post-race screen. "But if it's red, instead, I cannot fail to find A winner on the track, To lead me back Into the black."
BombsAwayBob Grant More than 1 year ago
If a photo sign is posted on the toteboard, & it takes +30 seconds to post the result, shouldn't the track at least SHOW the photo on their track feed after the race goes official? Tonite in the 7th @ Los Alamitos, I was live to the 5 & 9 in my Pick-4, so I played a Dime Super(All)(5,9)(4,7,8)(4,7,8)=$6. The #6 Wins@45/1; #5 is 2nd@3/1; #4 is 3rd@7/2; the photo for 4th is between #7@6/5 & #8@6/1; C'mon...This is a $100 winner,I'm holding a Dime Super..& NO PHOTO FOR FOURTH is shown after the official sign is posted??? If you offer a super, & theres a photo for fourth, please show it... (We're talking kinda BIG $$$ HERE, since everyone keys the chalk under in supers!~Thanks, Bob)
Virgin Queen More than 1 year ago
fake_maven, not sure where u live but the secret ring recorder is available in boston.as a matter of fact i got 2 last week out of the corner store bubble gum machine ;)