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Weekend thoughts, Beyers, questions
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:
*Spectacular Bid (GP): Notonthesamepage (W. Ward/E. Trujillo) - 115
*Gallant Fox (Aqu): Delosvientos (G. Iadisernia/E. Castro) - 106
*Hal's Hope (GP): Delightful Kiss (P. Anderson/C. Borel) - 102
*Impressive Luck (SA): Lucky J. H. (C. Gaines/V. Espinoza) - 98
*Kalookan Queen (SA): Lovely Isle (R. Frankel/V. Espinoza) - 97
*Alex M. Robb (Aqu): R Clear Victory (S. Asmussen/S. Elliott) - 97
*New Year's Eve (Mnr): Royale Michele (S. Kintz/D. Parker) - 97
*San Gabriel (SA): Proudinsky - Ger (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 95
*Old Hat (GP): Gemswick Park (T. Albertrani/J. Velazquez) - 94
*Native Dancer (Lrl): Lord Snowdon (A. Dutrow/J. Rose) - 93
*El Conejo (SA): In Summation (C. Clement/R. Bejarano) - 92
*Bold Ego (Sun): Goodbye Norma Jean (H. Dominguez/A. Medellin) - 91
*Swift (TuP): Northern Soldier (D. Sowers/G. Corbett) - 90
*San Gorgonio (SA): Tizfiz (R. DeLeon/A. Delgadillo) - 89
*Paseana (SA): Victorina (G. Gilchrist/R. Bejarano) - 89
*Count Fleet (Aqu): Haynesfield (S. Asmussen/R. Dominguez) - 88
*Ruthless (Aqu): Justwhistledixie (K. McLaughlin/R. Maragh) - 88
*Minaret (Tam): Dream Rush (W. Phipps/D. Centeno) - 87
*Monrovia (SA): Jibboom (R. Frankel/G. Gomez) - 87
*Restored Hope (Aqu): Awesome I Am (J. Terranova II/E. Castro) - 86
*Dixie Poker Ace (FG): Star Guitar (A. Stall Jr./C. Lanerie) - 86
*Interborough (Aqu): Zada Belle (T. Albertrani/R. Dominguez) - 82
*Blue Norther (SA): Navigator (R. Ellis/V. Espinoza) - 81
*Riley Allison Futurity (Sun): Retap (S. Asmussen/L. Contreras) - 80
*Golden Bear (GG): Backbackbackgone (P. Miller/R. Baze) - 79
*Turfway Prevue (TP): Loch Dubh (J. Talley/V. Lebron) - 77
*Invitational (PM): Stealth Attack (S. Gilmour/T. Stillwell) - 77
*Louisiana Futurity (colts div.) (FG): Leestown Gift (W. Hawley/H. Theriot II) - 74
*Albert Dominguez Memorial (Sun): Some Ghost (J. Alley/K. Tohill) - 73
*Louisiana Futurity (filly div.) (FG): Morning Memory (M. Burgess/D. Meche) - 70
*City of Roses (PM): Wave Her On (B. Root/J. Crispin) - 62
Here are the lifetime past performances of the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:
More work for you!!! :-)
Can you please check with the HOL figuremakers on three Beyers from this current meeting:
Nov27HOL3 - variant 10 points lower than the 5 other 8.5f races that day.
Nov26HOL1 - variant 15 points lower than other two turn races that day (note that this race was at 9f, but the other 9f race this meeting - the Native Diver this past saturday - was given the "usual" 2-turn variant ~ -4. Otherwise, Slew's Tizzy would have received a 116 Beyer in the Native Dancer if given a similar 9f "adjusted" variant as Nov26HOL1 received.)
Nov5HOL1 - variant 11 points lower than other 8.5f race.
Here is a Google snapshot (unedited - I haven't rechecked the math) of my HOL Beyer Table with those races highlighted (background color for one vs. two-turn races):
THANKS FOR ASKING/CHECKING!
Here's the response I got from Rich Wroble, one of our Beyer experts in the DRF offices:
I checked the races myself and all three were affected by very slow fractions. Andy was likely forced to rely heavily on the winners prior figures in races with more normal pace scenarios to get the best numbers. The fact that he picked up on this and gave extra scrutiny to these races makes me confident in their merit. He is very good at this.
Dan-Could you get me the Beyers for That I Am (first Saturday) and Winchester Bay (second Sunday) I'm really anxious to see how That I Am stacks up against other Illinois route horses-there are at least 3 100K stakes for IL. breds between the 2 tracks and it would really be nice to have a horse that could be competitive in races like that.
Stephen L. Taylor
Winchester Bay earned a 65 Beyer at Hawthorne on Sunday while That I Am received a 74 Beyer for his Saturday score. Nice way to kick off the year!
Something that would many of us who are not able to get out to the tracks: could the DRF indicate the North-South axis next to the track configuration in the "Track Information" sections at the beginning of each set of past performances? According to Weather.com, winds are gusting out of the WNW at over 20 MPH at AQU on Sat, and it would be helpful to be able to know how that's hitting the horses during the races.
The hard copy of the DRF Simulcast Weekly has the North-South axis next to the track configuration for venues that receive "Handicapper's Diary" reports (right now, they are Aqueduct, Calder, Fair Grounds, Santa Anita).
Dan noticed a few interesting Friends's Lake's horses over the weekend. Can we take a look at his lifetime PP's?
Here they are:
I was wondering the debut beyers of several decent colts. Naos by Lion Heart, Masala by Lion Heart, Soul Warrior By Lion Heart, and Checklist by Gone West. Does anyone know what they are?
Naos, a $135,000 yearling trained by Todd Pletcher, is out of the stakes-placed Miss Moonwaki (by Miswaki). He earned a 74 Beyer for his debut win over the Aqueduct inner track on December 6. Naos worked this morning over the Belmont training track.
Masala is a homebred trained by Pletcher out of the stakes-placed Marquetry mare Countess Marq. There are plenty of grass influences in the female family. Masala finished third in his career debut going six furlongs on turf at Belmont with a 75 Beyer, then won his maiden going one mile in an off-the-turf maiden special weight at Aqueduct on November 15 with an 89 Beyer. Masala worked on Friday morning at Palm Meadows.
Soul Warrior sold for $175,000 as a weanling, went for $95,000 as a yearling, and then was purchased by Zayat Stables for $290,000 last year. Trained by Steve Asmussen, this half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter My Miss Storm Cat finished second in his career debut going six furlongs at Churchill Downs on November 15 with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure. Shipped to New Orleans for his second start, Soul Warrior graduated going 1 Mile and 40 Yards on December 29 with a 77 Beyer.
Checklist, a $400,000 yearling purchase, is trained by Pletcher. He is the first foal to race out of the multiple Grade 2 winner Yearly Report. Checklist won his career debut on Saturday at Gulfstream with an 89 Beyer.
Congrats to Blackstone for finishing with the highest total in the last HandiGambling contest of 2008. His selection to kick off 2009 is the sixth race at Santa Anita on Wednesday. Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to make your plays. Here are the past performances:
See ya next time.
Very interesting article, i have bookmarked your blog for future referrence. Best regards
Dan, Another dumb handicapping? I'm looking at the Sun MilFMT race (#8) at GS They are showing the rail at 60 feet. What is the normal rail setting for this track ( I don't play GS much) and what effect will it have on the runners. There seems to be a balance of E, P, And S types here. Just trying to see which runners will be most affected by this rail setting.
I'm taking my shot at the subscription. I have never been a very big fan of Z Humor, but I like him quite a bit in this spot. I'll use the 2 1st time North American runners from Frankel and McLaughlin for underneath price. Hopefully, they'll be nice overlays. $50 Exacta 1 Z Humor with 6 Izanagi 8 Inti
Did I read this right?NOTONTHESAMEPAGE is on the deleted list for 09'?What the hec happened,he was going to be my horse of the year to watch.Also,WHY TONTO he was on my watch last year,I see he is still on the injury list but they have been breezing him the last two weeks.Im hoping for a comeback!Dont know where to go or who to ask about these guys. Thanks
HANDIGAMBLING $50 WIN #10 $10 EX. 10/5,8 $5 TRI 10/5,7,8 Leaving out the 9. Would like to see a jump in class. Works are mediocre at best.
My first time jumping in on one of these - but I love reading everyone's picks and comments, so I thought I'd give this one a try. Gomez is on the deserved favorite, but I never play chalk in claiming races. And I also think it's weird that Sadler isn't stepping him up off his last win... (Then again, maybe he wants to strike while the iron's hot and there aren't any next-step races carded any time soon so he has to run him back at the same level?) At any rate, I'll try to beat him with Pat the Cool Cat (who looks like a decent risk), but do an exacta saver in case Gomez beats him. I also like the 8 and the 6 if by some miracle the 9 doesn't get up to win or place. Those exacta with the 10 could pay pretty well.. $40 Win - #10 ($40) $10 Ex-box - #8-#10 ($20) $10 Ex-box - #6-#10 ($20) $20 Exacta - #9-#10 Side-note: I am a little nervous that if Pat the Cool cat doesn't fire, Foxy Games will win all alone on the front. That being said, she's had several chances to do that before and could only get it done when she set impossibly slow fractions (don't think she'll be able to do that again with this group).
g or g – "I'm interested in what others think about her and why her dosage is so high." This is a perfect illustration of why the Dosage system is deeply flawed. Using that system to gain insight into the probable stamina abilities/limitations of a horse like this is a crap-shoot which is likely to result in bad misinformation. As I have pointed out many times before on this forum, the problem is that Dosage only takes into account the so-called "chef-de-race" sires. So, when you are dealing with a horse that has no such sires close-up in its pedigree, the resulting Dosage numbers are often terribly misleading, as they obviously are in this case. It's a joke, frankly, and a horse with that pedigree is likely to stay at least nine furlongs. The important point is that Dosage should never be relied upon at face value, and it is always better to either learn about pedigrees yourself, or consult with someone who knows them.
Stephen Taylor, I could be wrong but I believe the term "came out stretch, rallied" means the horse was racing inside or against the rail and moved out for running room and came on in the stretch. In fact in one of the two races you mention, the horse came out of the one hole. I would think if the trackman suspected a physical problem he would have used the phrase bore out, lugged out or drifted out. And if you are indeed correct, I have been wrong in my thinking for a very long time.
Tinky, Laura, Calvin, and steve t., thanks for responding to the sires question. Was great reading what you had to say. I appreciated that some of you did some research I didn't mean to take that amou nt of time but thanks. Hg 115 Superfecta 5,6,8,10/9/1,3,4, 5,6,7,8,10/5,6,7,8,10 = $96 $4 Win- #2
Boy, I must really have been tired last night. Those allowance races are Thursday, not today. Today - Handigambling 115 Tomorrow - Big allowance showdowns at GP Sat. - First race in Alan's Derby Dreaming Contest There, I think I finally have it right. Lol Annie