04/14/2008 8:18PM

Weekend thoughts, Beyers, prep splits

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:

*Maker's Mark Mile (Kee):  Kip Deville (R. Dutrow Jr./C. Velasquez) - 105

*Arkansas Derby (OP):  Gayego (P. Lobo/M. Smith) - 104
*Count Fleet Sprint (OP):  Semaphore Man (K. Von Hemel/T. Doocy) - 102
*Shakertown (Kee):  Mr. Nightlinger (W. Calhoun/H. Theriot III) - 101

*Commonwealth (Kee):  Rebellion - GB (H. Motion/E. Prado) - 99
*Bayakoa (OP):  Buy the Barrel (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 97
*Achievement (WO):  Stuck in Traffic (N. Gonzalez/D. Clark) - 97
*Vinery Madison (Kee):  Ventura (R. Frankel/G. Gomez) - 96
*Fifth Season (OP):  Prom Shoes (W. Fires/C. Emigh) - 95
*Jenny Wiley (Kee):  Rutherienne (C. Clement/G. Gomez) - 95
*Czaria (Sun):  Illybilly (P. Shirley/B. Theriot) - 94
*Santa Lucia (SA):  Santa Teresita (D. Hofmans/J. Talamo) - 93
*Instant Racing (OP):  Euphony (Donnie Von Hemel/M. Berry) - 92
*Toyota Blue Grass (Kee):  Monba (T. Pletcher/E. Prado) - 92
*Dahlia (Lrl):  Lady Digby (H. Motion/J. Rose) - 91
*Northern Spur (OP):  Sebastian County (Don Von Hemel/L. Sterling Jr.) - 90

*Stonerside Beaumont (Kee):  Ariege (R. Frankel/G. Gomez) - 89
*Premiere (LS):  Sandburr (M. Stidham/M. Berry) - 89
*Bay Meadows Oaks (BM):  Seattle Smooth (J. Canani/R. Baze) - 89
*Sales (Colts and Horses):  Teagues Fight (D. MacDonald/S. Heiler) - 89
*Holy Bull (GP):  Hey Byrn (E. Plesa Jr./C. Lopez) - 88
*Comely (Aqu):  Sherine (A. Dutrow/A. Garcia) - 87
*Las Cienegas (SA):  Lightmyfirebaby (B. Abrams/A. Solis) - 86 (Bahama Mama finished first with 88 Beyer, but was disqualified and placed fourth)
*Inaugural (EvD):  Devereux (S. Asmussen/D. Meche) - 85
*La Puente (SA):  Tiz West (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza) - 85
*Dowd Mile (Fon):  Blumin Attitude (J. Cranwell/D. Leeds) - 85
*Prima Donna (OP):  Palanka City (T. Gestes/C. Emigh) - 84
*Lizzy Cool (Aqu):  Weathered (K. Grusmark/M. Luzzi) - 83
*New York Stallion Times Square (Aqu):  Fort Drum (G. Contessa/E. Coa) - 82
*Sales (Stp) (Fillies and Mares):  R. Lucinda (S. Simon/Q. Welch) - 81

*Star Shoot (WO):  Verdana Bold (D. Vella/E. Ramsammy) - 78
*Hallowed Dreams (EvD):  Tensas Gray Girl (E. Mouton/E. Maldonado) - 70

*Royal North (Beu):  Eye Cant Look Back (G. King/J. Magrell) - 67
*New York Stallion Park Avenue (Aqu):  Like a Rose (G. Contessa/M. Luzzi) - 66

Here are the lifetime past performances for Kip Deville:

Download kip_deville.PDF


***

Here are the incremental splits from the two big Derby preps (according to Formulator 4.1):

Toyota Blue Grass: (24.96, 49.01, 1:13.17, 1:37.27, 1:49.71)

Fastest first 1/4 mile (Cowboy Cal - 24.96)
Fastest second 1/4 mile (Monba - 23.94)
Fastest third 1/4 mile (Miner's Claim - 23.60)
Fastest fourth 1/4 mile (Halo Najib - 23.52)
Fastest last 1/8 mile (Visionaire - 12.12)

Arkansas Derby:  (22.71, 46.61, 1:11.09, 1:36.95, 1:49.63)

Fastest first 1/4 mile (Tres Borrachos - 22.71)
Fastest second 1/4 mile (Gayego - 23.72)
Fastest third 1/4 mile (Indian Sun - 23.95)
Fastest fourth 1/4 mile (Z Fortune - 25.01)
Fastest last 1/8 mile (Golden Yank - 12.12)

Having some computer problems so will address all of the questions, comments, and pp requests as well as taking a look at the blog's top handicappers from last week in tomorrow's edition.

Take it easy,

Dan

chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
Selections Hawthorne Race1 Must Trust Awesomewithbroads Le Jester Race2 Savy's Chen Saygoodnightgrace Frosty Melody Race3 Chosen Deputy Star Vector Beat the Freeze Race4 Big Lou Mythical Star Carts Italian Rose Race5 Stonehouse Stumbling Block Win Me Over Race6 Michael's Dreamin Denos Keys River Bear Race7 Stop a Train Copper State Labar Race8 Modjadji Pretty Jenny Bluesdancing Race9 High Expectations Mighty Rule Infectious Spirit Race10 G P's Black knight Cleaning House Pico D J Alex Aqueduct Race9 Just Little ------------------------------ Other I took notice of those KD contenders from Winstar Farms and Starlight Stables. Also, and more importantly, if you look at Big Brown, named after his hair, his long brown hair, you will see stars on his jockey's silks. On some pictures with Big Brown and his jockey, standing at an angle, the sun creates a shadow off the jockey's goggles. This shadow creates a constellation reminiscent of that which occurs, when the moon is in the 7th house, and Jupiter aligns with Mars. Big Brown and a few others now. It is all becoming a mystic crystal revelation. I've almost got it. I am almost there.
TK Lawless More than 1 year ago
I guess I'd say it a good thing IEAH has access to $$$Millions........
Danny B More than 1 year ago
I guess I'm not quite sure why everyone is convinced that Pyro is for sure going to be running from the very back of the pack? In no way am I suggesting that Pyro is going to be a length off War Pass and Big Brown, but I'm not convinced that he's going to be the last one to start running and hoping for the golden rail a la Street Sense. In the Louisiana Derby, Pyro tracked the pace in 4th the entire way. Who's to say that isn't the plan for the Derby? Personally, I think Pyro is going to sit a length or two off Colonel John in the 2nd flight. I think the LA Derby was the tell of what Assmussen and Bridgmohan intend to do in the Derby. I could be wrong, but we'll just have to see. In regards to the Blue Grass, I'm of the belief that Assmussen was using the Nafgazer plan of running on the Polytrack to "leg up the horse." Nafgazer made several comments last year on how he believed that Polytrack was a good tiring surface and racing over it helped to build stamina in Street Sense. I think Assmussen is using the same plan and I for sure think instructions were given to not push the horse too hard and to avoid any trouble during the race. Pace analysis is great and we have to use it, but trainer instructions and jockey decisions can blow holes in the best laid theory in the blink of an eye. There are no guarantees that Big Brown goes after War Pass to duel for the lead just like there are no guarantees that Pyro will break last.
C More than 1 year ago
Actually, I'd prefer a committee of turf writers and DRF handicappers to determine the field. There would be some moaning each year, but most of the uproar would likely concern spots 18-20. Not all preps are created equal, in terms of quality and money offered. And those 2 things don't always go hand-in-hand. Some random thoughts about the current list: Z Humor (8), Anak Nakal (19), and ESPECIALLY Turf War (11!) are very tough sells. They just haven't done enough for me. El Gato Malo (31) and Bob Blackjack (24) are far more deserving, IMO. I'm glad Blackberry Road is at #34... n1x clearly does not deserve entry. Tomcito will only get in with a big run in the Lexington, which is fair. ------------------------------ Danny/Chuckles, I'd say somewhere between 9-1 and 12-1 is about right for Pyro. 5-1 would be an outrageous underlay on him IMO. I could be wrong. ------------------------------ sripa1212, I'm a little puzzled at how many people honestly think Desormeaux is going to send Big Brown to knock heads with War Pass & Co. on the front end. That would be a huge surprise to me.
bobbyt More than 1 year ago
i felt good about pyro's prospects in the derby before the blue grass, and from a likely odds POV in the KD, still like him. but i have a few niggling concerns. first, why would assmussen be in ark. on blue grass day ( i know he ran z fortune--but he joined blasi in saudi arabia the day curlin ran)? why will pyro have ANOTHER workout over keeneland, then go to CD? CD is open now, is steve giving pyro a turf like training regimen----will he be a turf-to-dirt on derby day? unless that is the plan, i don't understand his actions with what many regard as his top prospect. anybody know what steve is doing with/thinks of pyro?
Blue Horseshoe More than 1 year ago
RE: Court Vision closing in the Wood I've learned so many lessons over the years when handicapping the KY Derby. First and foremost, there are no absolute rules, just handicap the race... A key lesson has been that one of the biggest examples of KY Derby handicapping fool's gold is thinking that the fast closing horse in a 1 1/8 mile prep is going to successfully pass the winner when stretching out to the Derby distance. A great relatively recent example of this was in the 2004 Arkansas Derby when Borrego was closing hard on Smarty Jones. Many (myself included), overbet Borrego (especially underneath in exotic plays) thinking he might be the better horse stretching out... It's important to remember that the race shapes toward the finish line. In the case of the Wood, considering the hot pace, the race shaped well before the finish line for War Pass and to a lesser degree Tale of Ekati. For me to consider Court Vision a serious Derby contender, he should have passed the other two with this cherry set-up. There is nothing in observing this race that suggests that I should expect Court Vision to pass the other two in the KY Derby, unless of course he is merely clunking by after they've (primarily War Pass) been chewed up in a fierce pace battle... Just my humble opinion... Not to beat up on you Riley, I really appreciate and enjoy your posts. You're young but you can certainly hold your own...
Calvin Carter More than 1 year ago
sripa1212, I aqree with Dr. Dale Romans. With his previous racing history and as an offspring of the Mr. Prospector bloodline, Tomcito has the pedigree to wear the Roses in May and here's wishing you good luck in the Lexington Coolmore. Do you have the link to that question and answer session with Dr. Romans? I'd like to read it. Lenny, I like your point system. For some time now I've thought that in addition to the graded earnings we needed a point system (the Breeders' Cup has one) to make sure that we have horses with a solid foundation coming into the Kentucky Derby instead of the trend in recent years to bring lightly raced horses to the Derby. Here's a question for you or for someone with a better grasp of the Kentucky Derby history than I - maybe Steve T. or Dan can answer. Why do the California tracks have a majority of the qualifying prep races (5 at Santa Anita and 1 at Bay Meadows)? One quarter of the prep qualifiers are at California tracks. I wish I knew more about that history but can only quess that maybe the weather is better and the racing season is longer.
todd More than 1 year ago
look out kids, but new shooter coming out: Tomicto fires a 46.60 bullet, handily from the gate today at KEE. sounds like he is feelin his oats. fun, fun, fun
Blue Horseshoe More than 1 year ago
Jim Tully, Powerscourt's take down in the Million is like the Gold Standard of Stewards blown calls! (Naturally I had a lot of dough on Powerscourt in this race and didn't play him the following year.) As such, comparisons to this most egregious decision should only be used with extreme caution and restraint (like Hitler comparisons). I fully agreed with the take down on Saturday, I mean, if that wasn't interference, what is??? As the decision time continued on, I was wondering if some politicking for prominent local resident Tom VanMeter was taking place... It's just too bad that the #4 (Zayat horse) had to share the win and the money...
BigEasyBig Chok More than 1 year ago
Vicstu, Dont let 5-1 or a little less move you off Pyro. This is my thought on Pyro's BG and Justin may be able to either confirm or shoot this theory down ( it is just a theory). I want to believe that Pyro wanted no part of the synthetic track and Asmussen believes he has the winner of the Derby and instructed the jockey to stay as far out of trouble as possible and under no circumstances use the horse for this race. Having put my theory out there for all of you and yes it is somewhat selfserving (just received a Pyro hat from my brother)as I am firmly in Pyro's camp for Derby, please let me hear yall's thoughts on why I need to be more flexible in my choice for backing Pyro. Additionally, other than Big Brown's race in Fla no other horse has more visually impressive in multiple Derby preps than Pyro and like a few others here I am throwing out his performance in BG. Hope that is not a mistake. BigEasyBigChok