02/02/2009 8:04PM

Weekend thoughts, Beyers, drugs, questions

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*King Cotton (OP):  Native Ruler (C. Richard/E. Razo Jr.) - 104

*Gulfstream Park Turf (GP):  Kip Deville (R. Dutrow Jr./C. Velasquez) - 103
*Donn (GP):  Albertus Maximus (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 101
*Hutcheson (GP):  Capt. Candyman Can (I. Wilkes/J. Leparoux) - 100

*Holy Bull (GP):  Saratoga Sinner (E. Kenneally/J. Leparoux) - 96
*Santa Monica (SA):  Ventura (R. Frankel/G. Gomez) - 96
*Forward Gal (GP):  Frolic's Dream (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 94
*Suwannee River (GP):  Lady Carlock (C. Nafzger/J. Bridgmohan) - 92

*Wishing Well II (SA):  Dawn After Dawn (J. Sadler/R. Bejarano) - 89
*La Habra (SA):  Pasar Silbano - Ire (J. Cassidy/M. Smith) - 86
*Dancing Count (Lrl):  Russell Road (J. Casey/T. Dunkelberger) - 86
*Manatee (Tam):  Rising Fever - Brz (C. Clement/D. Centeno) - 85
*Black Gold (FG):  Turfiste (R. Holthus/H. Theriot II) - 85
*Correction (Aqu):  Distorted Passion (T. Pletcher/R Maragh) - 83

*Wistful (Aqu):  What a Pear (J. Parker/C. Hill) - 79
*California Oaks (GG):  Will O Way (V. Cerin/R. Baze) - 77
*Rattlesnake (TuP):  Hidden Bounty (B. Hone/W. Dieguez) - 73

*Invitational (PM):  Nikki S. (B. Root/D. Hoonan-Trujillo) - 55

Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:

Download NativeNikki.pdf

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Dan,
I have a pop quiz question for ya!
Look at the results of the 5th race at Sunland Park on Tuesday, January 27th.  Look at the horses that finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.  What do ya notice?
Sam

Sam
Wow, was it hitting the JACKPOT?
& They all had the same sire  HIT A JACKPOT!
SR Vegas

Here's the chart:

Download Jackpot.pdf

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Dan, Have you or any of your readers used the Moss Pace Figures.If so what do you think of them??
Barry

Some of our readers have had success with the Moss Pace Figures.  I don't use them as much as I should as I use my homemade pace numbers for my personal handicapping.  I wish I could be more helpful on this topic, but don't have enough experience with the product to form a strong opinion.  Any help for Barry from one of our posters that use Moss Pace Figures?

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Since when was Fernando Jara riding in Dubai?
Alex R
.

Jara was riding in Panama after injuring his shoulder following a spill at Hollywood Park.  He signed on to ride in Dubai last October, and has been getting mounts for top trainer Doug Watson.  You also asked about Tasteyville at Dubai.  I didn't get a chance to analyze the race, but he finished eighth after stumbling early.  According to the "Stewards' Report" posted on emiratesracing.com, Tasteyville "returned with a cut to its left fore and to its right hind pastern."

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Dan;
Any chance that DRF will begin signifying workouts that are conducted in a  clockwise fashion (as they now are allowing at Gulfstream)?  Also, what are your thoughts as to the significance of such a workout pattern?  I am intrigued.
Van Savant

I highly doubt it.  I wish we had the little "comments" section at the end of each work tab because that would be a great opportunity to highlight works that were out of the ordinary.  I don't think it's a very significant angle from a handicapping standpoint.  Horses that are prepping for an overseas run may benefit from working "the wrong way," but trainers may simply use a workout like this to keep their horses from getting too bored in their training.  I don't think we're going to see many works in this fashion.

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Tencentcielo-I really liked El Cielo too-wasn't it a Canani?  Of course, I like any good downhiller.
Blackstone

Let's take a trip down memory lane with some lifetime past performances:

Download el_cielo.pdf

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ok kiddies. now let's see what the great andy Beyer has to say about this: i just watched Elusive Heat race a hole in the wind at Gukfstream. she won by 12 lengths easy, and went in 1:08.94, which is just a shade off the track record set 4 years ago when the track was like concrete. based on what mr. beyer's proclivity for assigning absurd speed figures, i can only assume that he will give her a 120 or something to that effect. and this was no "goofy" trainer either, so he has no one to question. 
just thought i would ask
todd saunders

Can you please post the Beyer speed figured earned by Mr. Fantasy in Aqueduct's 7th Race on February 1. Also, Elusive Heat from last week at Gulfstream would be much appreciated.
Brad

johnnyz and todd,
Elusive Heat received a 109 Beyer - I'll work on the variant either later today or tomorrow.  It was however quite a performance...
Alan

Brad, Mr. Fantasy received a 93 Beyer Speed Figure for his second-straight dominating performance over Aqueduct's inner track.  The three-year-old New York-bred by E Dubai is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, is a half-brother to Tin Cup Chalice, and has to be considered a sophomore with a bright future.

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Dan, I ask you,
did he stop riding vigorously, going to a hand ride the last 100 yards? Did this cost his horse the victory?
I Appreciate the objective opinion, if you have time.
slewofdamascus

Slew's talking about Kent D.'s ride on Fitzaslew in the seventh race on Friday at Gulfstream.  I'm not going to crucify him for the ride.  He was vigorously urging Fitzaslew for the majority of the stretch, and while he did put the stick away in the last 100 yards, it looked like he kept busy by throwing a few crosses with the reins while showing his mount the whip.  It's a bit odd that he put the whip away when the horse seemed to be responding well in midstretch, but I don't think Kent quit on the horse.  Perhaps he knows that FormBloggers realize he "can't win from the rail post."  :>

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Anybody know what kind of Beyer Rail Trip got for yesterday's workout in the 7th @ SA? I believe in developing a horse, but this horse can really take the Big Cap with the weak handicap division out here on the West Coast. This horse is really something else.
Causeways37

The undefeated Rail Trip received a 99 Beyer in his third lifetime start.

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Sorry if this has been asked already, have been in Tahoe for a week (where I could NOT bet Santa Anita)!!!!! Why isn't Danger to Society included in the Experimental Free Handicap and why are horses like Jack O' Lantern who is now injured and has been for a while on there? Thanks.
Lane

The Experimental Free Handicap is probably a bit outdated.  It's been published annually since 1935 as a hypothetical race for 2-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles.  To be eligible for the race, a two-year-old must have finished in the top four in a graded stakes race, or another unrestricted stakes race with a purse value of $75,000 or greater.  Danger to Society doesn't merit consideration because he was unraced in stakes races as a juvenile in 2008.  On the other hand, Jack o'Lantern won the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue.

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He leaves a HOF's barn where he was a total plodder, believe me, I had him on my watch list right before his maiden win, so I'm very familiar with his failure to find his best form.
Slewofdamascus

Nothing against Gary Mandella, but he's not a Hall of Famer.  His dad, absolutely, but Albertus Maximus' three trainers (G. Mandella, V. Cerin, K. McLaughlin) haven't been enshrined at Saratoga just yet.  The tepid early pace of the Donn Handicap probably had more to do with Albertus Maximus being closer than usual than any other factor.

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I do want to "toss the winner" out for dicussion-he was Jeronimo in the 5th. The thing I wonder is whether and when first time lasix (other than first time starters) is a factor and is it being overlooked nowdays by handicappers? Jeronimo was a 2nd time starter who had run a solid 3rd in his debut without lasix and then added lasix for yesterday's race and went off at 12/1. In the "olden days" at least in Chicago, a first time lasix horse seldom went off at more than 3/1 regardless of past form, but now it seems to be an overlooked angle. Our trainer likes to start all of his firsters on lasix and says that any horse who isn't on lasix his first start is not "intended" by his connections to win. (I'm  NOT saying they're stiffing the horse, just that the connections don't feel they have a horse that can win at first asking) What I've informally noticed is a horse who runs up the track without lasix and adds it isn't necesarily going to improve enough because of the additon of lasix, but a horse like Jeronimo who  ran a good race without lasix and  then adds it is going to be tough to beat. My question is, since there are some top flight handicappers among my fellow bloggers, AND  DAN, PLEASE CHIME IN do you still use the 1st time lasix angle, and why or why not, or when? With the relaxation of the lasix rules, many horses now just start on it but on average, how much do you think a horse adding it "moves up".
Stephen Taylor

Generally, I don't think handicappers underestimate the "Lasix on" angle.  In this case, it may have been more of a case of handicappers shying away from previously 0-fer Brice Blanc than going with the Lasix horse.  It's been my experience that one of the most profitable angles in all of racing is the second-time maiden starter adding Lasix for the first time.  Maidens usually improve naturally in their second start as the debut experience can be very overwhelming.  Add in Lasix, and the improvement can be drastic.  Of course, finding a horse like this nowadays isn't easy.  Most firsters debut with Lasix, and the "second-time/first-time" runner is a rare breed indeed.  I always give "first-time Lasix" runners extra consideration (think it can move them up as much as two to three lengths), and I wonder if that's a reason so many European imports perk up in their first starts in North America. 

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Congrats to BillG for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling contest.  He selects the fifth race from Santa Anita on Wednesday for our HG119 exercise.  Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."  Here are the past performances:

Download HandiGambling119.pdf

Good luck!

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Of the six possible MKB horses in the Risen Star, only Laura's Terrain is not entered.
Annie

Unfortunately, I had to add Terrain to the Disabled List last week after it was reported that he's been sick.  Hopefully, he'll be back soon.

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Talk to you soon,

Dan


Handicapper X More than 1 year ago
Dan, You should rename this blog the Spaghettio's blog. The O's would be representative of how many winners you are capable of picking, and if people followed your advice they'd only be able to afford to eat Spaghettio's.
John Lyons More than 1 year ago
just a question Dan do you know where the workout track listed as Classic Mile is located?
Causeways37 More than 1 year ago
HG119: 30EXA: 9/3,7,8 10EXA: 9/3
ponzie More than 1 year ago
HG 119 $30 Tri PW 9/3/6,12 $10 Tri PW 9/3/4,7,8,10 keep up the great work...
garyw More than 1 year ago
hg119 9-7-3 $10exacta box 9-7 $20 exacta 9-3 $5exacta box 7-3 10 exacta
Causeways37 More than 1 year ago
I've noticed alot of columnists and writers are kinda down on this years crop of 3 year olds for various reasons, but mostly b/c one has not stood out against the rest of the group. I'm as big a dreamer as the next horseplayer/fan for a superstar to emerge in the 3 year old division for a chance at a TC and take hold of this game and take us through an exciting journey of spectacular performances but maybe we've all been looking in the wrong place. Is it just me or has the female division from top to bottom seem to have gotten stronger and stronger? I mean, we still have Zenyatta. And the older female division was as strong as ever last year with 3 horses mainly dominating the competition from coast to coast (Zenyatta, Hystericalady, Ginger Punch) and a super freak later on with Cocoa Beach. And from the 3 year old division last year, we still have Music Note (I think) and Proud Spell. If we take a brief look at this years' 3 year old fillies, Elusive Heat and Frolic's Dream look primed for a big year against each other in the female 3 year old sprint division on dirt and Ventura and Indian Blessing hooking up a couple of times on Synthetic. And of course we have Stardom Bound debuting on Saturday, and if this one takes to dirt there's no end to the possibilities! Maybe we're focusing on the wrong gender of horse to spotlight for this game. IMO, i think the filly division has trumped the male division across the board. Can anyone think of a horse in the handicap division that can take Zenyatta?(Although Rail Trip has the look of something special off his first 3 races) If the connections run her against the boys early in the year and dominates them as she has in her own division we might see alot of these fillies/mares invade the their counterparts more often than usual this year. It's too bad that after Big Brown's bid for the TC was foiled that Zenyatta was not given as much or more recognition of her accomplishments as Curlin did. Given her record last year and her running again this year, we could've generated more fan's across the country/world to follow something very unique. An undefeated champion. Hopefully the media/industry will take advantage of a great opportunity we have here. Btw, thanks for correcting me on the outside PP matter @ GP. I should've known that answer as I was there live for that race! lol.
Lane More than 1 year ago
$5 tri 3,7/3,7/9,10,12($30) $5 tri 3,7/9,10,12/3,7($30) $1 tri 3,7/3,7,10/7,9,10($7) $1 tri 3,7/3,7,9/7,9,10($7) $1 tri 3,7/3,7,10/9,10,12($10) $1 tri 3,7/3,7,9/7,10,12($10) $5 Win 9 $1 for the poor soul who had to punch these tickets or stand behind me at the terminal if I punched my own. :) Good luck. May Rosario come in 4th.....
Dale More than 1 year ago
Handigambling 119: I think there is enough speed in this race for the probable favorite (Flip the Penny) to sit off of and get up in the stretch for the win. I believe there are enough contenders in the race to get 5/2 on the favorite. I also believe there are several in here who COULD win or at least finish in the money. I will spread a lot: $1 TRI PW: 7-10 / 3-6-7-8-10-12 / 3-4-6-7-8-9-10-12-13....$70 $0.20 SP PW: 7 / 3-4-6-8-10 / 3-4-6-8-10-12 / 3-4-6-8-10-12......$20 $5 EX PW: 7 / 8-10......$10 AND NO CHANGE!! Thanks Cayman and whoever else tracks this thing, Dale
scianc22 More than 1 year ago
HG 119 Not much time so I will just post my plays. $30 WP #10 $3 Tri Box 3,10,12 $11 Exacta Box 3-10
dylbert More than 1 year ago
HG119 $1 Tri: 6,7,9 // 6,7,9 // 3,5,10,14 $1 Tri: 6,7,9 // 3,5,10,14 // 6,7,9 $1 Tri: 7,9,10 // 7,9,10 // 3,5,6,14 $1 Tri: 7,9,10 // 3,5,6,14 // 7,9,10 $0.10 SF: 3 // 5,14 // 7,9 // 6,10 $0.10 SF: 5,14 // 3 // 7,9 // 6,10 $0.10 SF: 3 // 5,14 // 6,10 // 7,9 $0.10 SF: 5,14 // 3 // 6,10 // 7,9 $0.10 SF: 3 // 7,9 // 5,14 // 6,10 Good Luck to All Today! Going to FG for Louisiana Derby Preview Day this Saturday -- should be outstanding day of racing...