09/15/2008 7:33PM

Weekend thoughts; Beyers

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Monmouth (Mth):  Big Brown (R. Dutrow Jr./K. Desormeaux) - 105

*PTHA President's Cup (Pha):  Soldier's Dancer (D. Vivian/M. Cruz) - 99
*Presque Isle Downs Masters (PID):  Wild Gams (B. Perkins Jr./M. Mena) - 99
*Noble Damsel (Bel):  Criminologist (C. McGaughey III/E. Prado) - 98
*Ashley T. Cole (Bel):  Banrock (T. Bush/K. Desormeaux) - 97
*Kentucky Cup Turf Dash (KD):  Hold the Salt (J. Dodgen/R. Homeister Jr.) - 95
*Gazelle (Bel):  Music Note (S. bin Suroor/J. Castellano) - 95
*Marfa (TP):  Off Duty (L. Whiting/L. Melancon) - 95
*Premier (Zia):  Going Wild (B. Hone/A. Castanon) - 94
*Light Hearted (Mth):  J Z Warrior (W. Mott/J. Bravo) - 94
*Forrest White (Stk):  Kool Comic (J. Hollendorfer/F. Alvarado) - 94
*Revidere (2nd Div.) (Mth):  Paris Winds - Ire (W. Mott/J. Bravo) - 94
*Futurity (Bel):  Charitable Man (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 93
*Kentucky Cup Turf (KD):  Rumor Has It (D. Hinsley/E. Perez) - 93
*Revidere (1st Div.) (Mth):  Cozzi Capital (H. Wilensky/C. Marquez Jr.) - 91
*Step Nicely (Bel):  Famous Patriot (T. Hills/J. Castellano) - 91
*Allied Forces (Bel):  Pascal (G. Contessa/C. Velasquez) - 90
*Kentucky Cup Ladies' Turf (KD):  Royal Pleasure (J. Sheppard/R. Homeister Jr.) - 90

*Matron (Bel):  Doremifasollatido (J. Jerkens/E. Coa) - 89
*Pio Pico (Fpx):  Kalookan Year (V. Garcia/A. Quinonez) - 87
*Fair Queen (Alb):  Prairie Charm (G. Cross/A. Martinez) - 87
*Safely Kept (AP):  Quota (A. Stall Jr./J. Alvarado) - 87
*Muckleshoot Tribal Classic (EmD):  Wasserman (H. Belvoir/J. Whitaker) - 87
*Claire Marine (AP):  Goat Cheese (T. Proctor/H. Theriot II) - 86
*Trenton (Mth):  Hadavision (M. Shuman/J. Lezcano) - 86
*Sweepida (Stk):  High Resolve (G. Gilchrist/R. Baze) - 86
*Albuquerque Derby (Alb):  Poni Colada (S. Asmussen/D. Sterling) - 86
*New Jersey Breeders' (Mth):  Flirtatious Smile (K. Sleeter/F. Ortiz) - 85
*Belle Roberts (EmD):  Gadget Queen (B. Wright/R. Frazier) - 85
*Ravolia (Crc):  Salty Wave (M. Criollo/M. Noguera) - 85
*It's Only Money (CT):  Missacity Luke (G. Dunlevy/G. Almodovar) - 83
*Prairie Meadows Debutante (PrM):  A Day for Dancing (S. Asmussen/J. Campbell) - 81
*Trooper Seven (EmD):  Emancipated (R. Baze/L. Mawing) - 81
*La Prevoyante (WO):  Tenjectory (M. DePaulo/E. Da Silva) - 80

*Natalma (WO):  C. Karma (G. De Gannes/J. Jones) - 79
*Arlington-Washington Futurity:  Terrain (A. Stall Jr./H. Theriot II) - 79 (*Jose Adan finished first with 82 Beyer, but was dq'd to second...Advice finished second with 82 Beyer, but was dq'd to third)
*Chinook Pass Sprint (EmD):  Bound to Be M V P (T. McCanna/R. Frazier) - 77
*Captain Condo (EmD):  Noosa Beach (D. Harwood/J. Gutierrez) - 77
*Fairway (Del):  Bon Jovi Girl (T. Ritchey/J. Caraballo) - 76
*Swynford (WO):  Mine That Bird (D. Cotey/C. Sutherland) - 76
*Barretts Juvenile (Fpx):  Triumphant Flight (J. Kruljac/V. Espinoza) - 74
*Prairie Meadows Freshman (PrM):  Jumpifyoudare (K. Von Hemel/P. Compton) - 73
*John and Kitty Fletcher (EmD):  Sweetheart Deal (D. Markle/S. Martinez) - 73
*Diane Kem (EmD):  Ladyledue (B. Jenne/R. Frazier) - 71
*J. W. Sifton (AsD):  Spying Eyes (R. Gray/R. Singh) - 71
*Barretts Debutante (Fpx):  Miss Dixie Dancer (A. Kitchingman/C. Potts) - 70

*Go for the Green Juvenile (Del):  Bunker Hill (D. Ryan/R. Mojica Jr.) - 67
*Oliver's Twist (Lrl):  Mr. Keeper (H. Smith/M. Franklin) - 66
*Jack Betta Be Rite (FL):  Celestial Flight (C. Baker/D. Carr) - 60

*Buffalo (AsD):  Adventcia (C. Anderson/M. Anderson) - 48

Here are the lifetime past performances for the high and low Beyer stakes performers:

Download BigBrownAdventcia.pdf

***

I'm running late tonight, and I want to post the numbers so I'll leave the questions and comments for tomorrow. 

Take care,

Dan

Kentucky Slew More than 1 year ago
Riley, In response on your father’s performance. I have been a silent reader of this blog for a long time and I have a lot of respect and admiration to your father and his accomplishments but we also have to call a spade a spade. Although you have won three great races this year, that does not make up for the other 80 plus horses in your barn. First, look at the record of 2yo starters and compare it to last year. Then look at the winning clip with that group and in general. You cannot deny that it has been a somewhat slow year for the Mott Stable with the exception of Go Between, Adriano (that you picked up after Graham Motion), and Dynaforce. Your Saratoga was very slow and it has not really picked up except in patchy spots. The bottom line is that you have been winning @ a 13% clip are 1 in 66 with firsters and 1 in 40 with 2yo. Your highest wining clip is at the claiming level at 30% compared to the allowance level of 16%, graded stakes 5% 2yo 7%. Considering the quality of horses that are in your father’s barn there is nothing to be blowing your own horn about. But maybe you are not to blame and maybe Zayat is drowning you by aiming too high with some horses. A perfect example is Herr Mozart in the Pilgrim instead of a Maiden. Kentucky Slew
Greg More than 1 year ago
Handigambling: Fairplex Race 4...9/17/2008 No strong opinion here but for purposes of this exercise...I'm going to go with #6 Hooked on Nine. It appears he has been in some much deeper fields than he has been in today. He's earned competitive figures at roughly this level despite some deep in pack finishes. I don't trust the #7 horse. I will set a minimum odds of 7-2 on #6. The horse that scares me the most is #5 Tizzalating, who appears like he could get clear if Quinonez doesn't send from the inside. I like horses that set a fast pace going 2-turns and are cutting back (though this is also 2-turns). #8's last race was bad, but two back was pretty good. The others are excusable (blinkers, turf, stakes). I like that Blanc returns, he doesn't seem to ride that much at Plex. Bets: $30 win 6 (min odds 7-2, 30) $12 ex 6 / 1 5 8 (36) $7 ex 5 / 1 6 8 (21) $6 ex 8 / 5 6 (12) $1: the water gun game where you blow up the baloon.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Geez, what's that now? I just looked up at my toolbar, and for The Weather Channel after temperature, weekend forecast and 10 day forecast it says "Check Flea Activity". Huh? I'm kind of afraid to look at it. How much information do we really need at our fingertips? Annie
slewofdamascus More than 1 year ago
C, I feel your distinctive sarcasm when you write "thanks for watching out for us horseplayers." No problem, buddy. Anytime.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Alex, In answer to your one question about the exacta payoff differences, I would view it as simply that even though both the 6 & 8 were perceived to have only a 10-1 chance of winning the race, the 6 is viewed as having a much better chance of running second than the 8. That's all. Maybe the 6 has a history of seconditis or something. By the way, in that situation, without seeing pp's, I would use the 6, not the 8. To me, it looks like somebody or somebodies have abit of confidence in the 6 running second. Annie
Annie More than 1 year ago
Steve T, We already knew that Alan had chalky tendencies. Chalky just put the final frosting on the cake. Annie
PGM More than 1 year ago
I'll try the handigambling exercise this time around. Special thanks to Alan for supplying the PPs. **Fairplex Park 4, Wed. Sept. 17** #1, Friendly Mystery: On paper he appears the only legitimate speed, a plus for a bull-ring. He's dropping in class (open MCLs to CA-bred MCLs) and he's the only one in the field with a race over Fairplex. Fairly small samples for team and trainer connections, but are best in the field based on percentages. I'll use him on top. #2, Lil Graceful Lea: Even though this one is dropping in class ($40K to $32K), it is really hard to endorse a rider that is zero for twenty-eight. Or with a 15 BSF. There may not be that much pace for him, either. I'll pass. #3, Quiet Advice: Double the BSF would mean double the chances? Well double of nothing is still nothing. There is a workout gap in late-July/early-August (#2 had one too) and this one will take dumb money with Unusual Heat in the pedigree. I'll stay away. #4, This is My Song: Tons of zeroes in the trainer category and jockey category and this one is making a lateral class move (MCL $25K to CA-bred $32K). Yuck. #5, Tizzalating: Going from M. Baze to Rosario is a slight up-tick in the saddle and the pedigree may be more dirt-friendly than synthetic-friendly on her. Think Rosario will sit stalk with this one today. Trainer is a so-so 17% going route to sprint and this one should get a check. #6, Hooked On Nine: Rosario-off is a negative and this one is making a lateral-clas s move (open $25 to CA-bred $32). This one actually had competitiveness at Del Mar, consistent speed figures, and could pop into the bottom of tris and supers. #7, Tattler: The expected favorite with Pedroza, who has been white-hot at the L.A. Fair. Drops from MSWs to MCLs. There's not a large field to play with so this one should get a nice outside trip. Definitely in the exacta. #8, Dixie Dot Chance: Drops in class ($40K to $32K) and took to Del Mar more than taking to Hollywood. How this one handles Fairplex, a mystery. Appears in form off the Del Mar starts and if it carries up the coast, can get a check. Expected order of finish: 1-7-5-6 Wagering Plan: If it were my own money, I'd only play an action wager on #1 assuming I got at least 5-2 and on #5 assuming I got at least 7-2. Or skip the race altogether. For this exercise, I'll play a mix of safe w/p tickets, while also trying for the super. I'll be cowardly and hit the all-button, as the second time starters could make an improvement. Also, I'd hate to get skunked using six horses in a super (like Uncle Steve did) and one of the long shots jumps up. $2 W/P #1 ($4) $2 W/P #7 ($4) $2 W/P/S #5 ($6) $1 Exacta 1-7 ($2) $1 Exacta 7-1 ($2) $1 Tri part-wheel 1, 7 / 1, 5, 7 / 5, 6, 8 ($18) 40-cent Super wheel 1, 7/ 1, 5, 7/ 5, 6, 8 / All ($57.60) 10-cent super box 1, 5, 6, 7 ($2.40) 10-cent super box 1, 5, 7, 8 ($2.40) Total investment is $98.40, and that leaves $1.60 left for an In N Out cheeseburger.
buffalo joe More than 1 year ago
Slew- I just got in from poker and was catching up when I came to your 9:42AM post 9/16. Good friend my deepest and most heat flet APPOLIGIES are in order, if anything I said was seen as a chidding be me to you in regards to your posting of some of the terrible rides you have recieved by various pinheads. I am in complete sympathy, with the very great majority of your jockey reports, as well as your BB opinion. I only jested about your upcoming study, as I know you have a sense of humor, and I in fact look forward to your BC input. So please, please do not feel I was in anyway chiding you, on occasion when you have ask the general public for a second set of eyes or opinion I have always given an honest opinion. Respectfully Buffalo Joe.
Danny B. More than 1 year ago
Alan, LOL. My dating history? You mean that can come back to haunt you? Uh-Oh. At this rate, I think it involved a lot more then just dating. I'm wondering if I don't owe child support to someone with the last name Stonarch or something.... Annie, I don't know if you were at Canterbury for the Thursday night fireworks this year on 4th of July weekend. There was a DQ that night (Uno Way Calle) that was so bad that I tried to have a couple security guards arrest the stewards for theft after the decision. They refused, but told me I should go to the betting window and ask for my money back. Yes, they were serious....I tried it knowing what the outcome would be. You wouldn't hear that much laughter at a Chris Rock show. As Steve T wrote, the rules and the way they are applied are as clear as mud. And while I'm pointing out a couple I disagreed with here, there have been others where I feel they made the right call. This isn't all sour grapes even though I've been on the losing side every time. There just has to be a way to make it more uniform and consistent across all tracks.
Stephen Taylor More than 1 year ago
Midwest Ed- Congrats on the tourney last Saturday. I had a perfect day myself (didn't cash a ticket) As for Agastache in the 11th, I was with Mike Campbell and the co-owner of the horse during the race and they were more than a little bit upset by Rene's decision to take off his mounts because he was "mad" about being disqualified, BUT everyone agreed that Trey rode a nice race and that the winner wasn't going to get beat. (Mike said after the race that the winner was the one horse he was worried about-wish he had told me before the race!) The unanimous opinion was that the horse couldn't have won that race with Rene riding him and that Trey did a nice job to get second. (Not sure if that makes you feel any better) Did learn something for those contests in the future-always save 10 or 20 bucks for the last race. (The only "price horse" I liked ended up winning the 12th and having a 20 left to take a shot would have changed the day dramatically) Don't blame you at all for taking a shot at the end-My "guestimate" based on the prior contests was that it would take between $475 and $500 to make it to Vegas so I see why you thought you needed another hit.