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Weekend in Review
Man o' War:It's extremely rare for a champion dirt horse to be as dominant on the turf, and Curlin was no exception in his grass debut. There was certainly no disgrace in finishing second in a Grade 1 race in his first turf attempt, sandwiched between a pair of Breeders' Cup Turf winners, but the world's best dirt horse would be 20-1 or higher if his next start were the Arc de Triomphe, the race his handlers were considering as a fall target. Red Rocks was 14-1 and 98-1 in his two previous world-class tests, the Coronation Cup and the Hong Kong Vase, and was well beaten in both.
Curlin was simply second best, with no excuses. He was at Red Rocks's flank at the top of the stretch and beaten two lengths at the wire.
Like most dirt horses, he is essentially one-paced and doesn't have the quickening burst of speed that wins international grass classics. He could improve in a second start on grass, but just seems unlikely to get to the Arc-winning level.
That doesn't mean he can't be competitive in the Breeders' Cup Turf, given his handlers' understandable wariness of trying yet another new surface, Santa Anita's Cushion Track, in the BC Classic, or that he can't still have an interesting fall on real dirt, targetting races from a list including the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Clark and Japan Cup Dirt.
If he takes the latter route, the grass experiment was still a noble one, and his second in the Man o'War is a worthy and appealing addition to his resume as he heads for stud, but he's no true worldbeater on grass.
I'm not ready to agree with the notion that Curlin's upper limit in 10 furlongs on the basis of his second-place finishes in his two longer starts. One of those was a photo-finish second to a champion filly before he had fully flowered and the other was on a surface where he's not at his best. Does anyone really doubt he still would have won the JC Gold Cup or BC Classic had those races been a furlong or two farther?
Summit of Speed: Indyanne (G3 Azalea), Golden Spikes (G3 Carry Back), Mistical Plan (G1 Princess Rooney) and Benny the Bull (G2 Smile) all ran well in victory in consecutive six-furlong races where the relative final times are difficult to reconcile with one another:
Golden Spikes: 1:11.20
Mistical Plan: 1:10.76
Benny the Bull: 1:11.41
Beyer Speed Figures of 108 were awarded to the 4-for-4 Indyanne and Mistical Plan, and a 102 was assigned to Golden Spikes, using the same variant for those races. Benny the Bull's race was upgraded from what would have been a 99 to a 105 on the highly plausible theory that the track slowed down for his race and the two that followed it -- a 2-year-old stakes run in 1:13.61 and a 2-year-old filly MSW run in 1:14.43.
Even a 105 is not a true indication of Benny the Bull's ability, as he took a very wide overland route, and he rallied from far behind into a contested but less-than sizzling opening half-mile of 45.64.
There was some wild betting in these races, only some of it successful. In the Carry Back, Golden Spikes took a ton of late money to go off as the 1.30-to-1 favorite after Lantana Mob (3rd at 2.00-1) had been favored throughout most of the betting. And in the Smile, Benny the Bull was odds-on most of the way until massive late betting on Indian Chant (5th at 2.70-1) inflated the winner's price to $4.60.
The all-stakes pick-four turned out to be a spectacular overlay: The $3.20/$4.60/$18.20/$4.60 sequence came back $441.40 for $2, nearly triple the $154 parlay.
Arlington Million Preview Day: Stream of Gold(G3 Arlington Handicap), Communique (G3 Modesty) and Tizdejavu (G2 American Derby) all scored authoritative victories in respective preps for the G1 races at Arlington Aug. 9 -- the Million, Beverly D and Secretariat.
Stream of Gold, making his first start since October and his first since being transferred from Patrick Biancone to Rusty Arnold, may have run himself into the Million picture after running down a loose Cosmonaut, who had won the last two editions of the race, earning a gaudy 105 Beyer for his 10 furlongs on a soft course in 2:04.83. Communique got a 99 for her 3 3/4-length score over Kiss With a Twist and Ciao winning the Modesty in 1:58.89 but has never faced stronger than G3 competition.
Tizdejavu has now reeled off three straight graded victories in 3-year-old turf stakes but the American Derby was his least impressive effort. He got away with murder on the lead (25.93, 51.93, 1:16.83) and still was under a drive to score by a diminishing 2 1/4 lengths over 37-1 Sr. Henry, a four-time loser at the N1x level on turf with only a maiden-claiming victory in 15 career starts. No one else in the race lifted a hoof.
Tijdejavu's final time of 1:59.88 for 9.5f was nearly a full second slower than Communique's 1:58.89 in the Modesty, but the pace of the latter was much faster (1:13.86 vs. 1:16.83).
I thoroughly enjoyed my visit to Arlington, where I hadn't been for two years. The facility remains absolutely gorgeous, seems crisply run, and whatever they're doing with their Polytrack makes it seem to play more like dirt than the Polytrack surfaces at Del Mar and Keeneland. The racing seems to be off the national high-rollers' radar and, coupled with the unusually high proportion of casual attendees, appears to offer some real parimutuel opportunities. The early double of winners who returned $6.60 and $12.20 paid $79.40. The last race on the card Saturday was a tricky affair involving statebred juvenile fillies, but somehow a 1-2-3-4 finish by four of the five favorites -- at 5-1, 6-1, 3-1 and 4-1 -- produced a $2 superfecta that paid a whopping $4,297.60.
Speaking of being off the national radar, the betting on the Delaware Oaks card was anemic on a crowded afternoon. Compare the handles for the pick-4's involving the graded stakes at the five tracks that ran such races Saturday:
Hollywood (Swaps): $581,188
Belmont (Man o' War) $400, 776
Calder (Four SOS stakes): $200,130
Arlington (Modesty/Am. Derby): $87,838
Delaware (RG Dick/Del. Oaks): $12,721
Poker: Kip DeVille was as sharp as ever in in his first start since April, conceding 9 to 11 pounds to his four opponents and earning a 108 Beyer winning by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:32.94. He beat a subpar field winning the Breeders' Cup Mile last year but could still be a handful defending his title even against better European competition this year.
It was surprising to look at his lifetime past performances and see that the Poker was his first race in New York in 23 career starts, and it could be his last since the New York racing calendar is so weak when it comes to grass miles for older males. There are two Grade 1's for that division in California (the Kilroe at Santa Anita and the Shoemaker at Hollywood, both worth $300k) and two at Keeneland (the $300k Maker's Mark at the spring meet and the $600k Shadwell Turf Mile in the fall) but only the G3 $100k Poker and G2 $250k Kelso in New York. With no Grade 1's in the division on the national calendar between the Shoemaker May 26 and the Shadwell Oct. 4, it might be worth trying to enrich and upgrade the Poker as a summer destination.
Mike, I watched the races today. seems like the stewards are doing what they want to do. I thought the first race was questionable. The fifth race the 1 should have come down for contact and the 6th race i thought the one horse drifted out a little causing the 3 horse to drift out. I really don't understand how knocking another horse out of your way can be allowed regardless of where the stewards thought they would place. Horse racing was never a contact sport. I have never seen anything like this in NY. Could it be the "new" jockey colony? Maybe poor placement of their horses during the race?
If Curlin's connections are really intent on going through with the Arc, they better have learned their lessons from the Man'o War. If Curlin can't outkick a good turf horse like Red Rocks to the wire, what makes anyone thing that he'll be able to do against horses like Zarkava, Soldier of Fortune, etc. The only way he could win the Arc is to steal it from the front. Most long turf races in Europe are run at a snail-like pace for about a mile and then its a mad sprint to the finish. This would be Curlin's chance to steal away early and try to hold on to the wire. He needs to be at least 6-7 lengths in front of those top horses with 1/4 mile to go or he should just pull up like Big Brown did at Belmont.
Bill_A I always stay at Lake George. It's about 25 minutes north of Saratoga, much easier to get a room and much cheaper. The lake is gorgeous.
bill a. email firstname.lastname@example.org have rental avaialable july 22-25 and aug 26-28 leave house at 12.45 and make double with 5 minutes to spare.madison st. location 3br 2 bath if interested send me a line either way enjoy the spa.
Bill... as far as economical for the Saratoga meet, the Lake George area (25 minutes to the north) for cheaper lodging options. Best time I had in years was the 5 days in the Lake George area and it's mostly freeway driving to the track and back. On the "off" Saratoga days we went fishing on Lake George as well. Caught a bunch of smallies and a lake trout on a Tuesday AM. I think someone mentioned Bolton Landing in an earlier post. I believe that's where we found an economical charter boat and captain. See this link for a Super 8 in downtown Lake George. There are other Super 8's as well as other chains: http://www.super8.com/Super8/control/Booking/modify_dates?id=13930&variant= I checked the rates and a Double Bed with a weekly rate is $121.00 Mon-Fri and $131.00 on Sat-Sun. I used the dates of July 21-28 as the period of stay and rooms were available. You could also just 'google' "Lake George, NY + Super 8" or "Lake George, NY + Quality Inn" or any other combinations. If you know the zip codes (12845 for LG) for the surrounding areas, just google "Hampton Inn + 12845" and/or other hotel preferences. Hope this helps... and I'm dead serious, charter a boat for a half day and enjoy Lake George; a breath-taking lake that's clear and deep. Take a camera with you as well.
The Mdn Clm races scheduled today (7/16) at BEL on the turf are perhaps the most atrocious fields I've ever seen carded. They belong at Finger Lakes.....are ya'll ready for SAR or what!? The info posted on this blog is great. Places to stay, places to eat, people to meet...love it....Al Basha (scheduled to run today) is a great example of a trainer (Penna Jr.) prepping for SAR. Al Basha has won twice there....I always spend the last 2 weeks of the BEL spring/summer meet looking for SAR preppers....now watch Penna make me look foolish by sending him ready today!.....alright you pick sixers, you win!....I will try my inexperienced hand at this wager during the SAR meet (enjoy taking my money, but do it humbly, please). It seems to me there must be a cheaper way to play the P6...I am decent with the numbers and I have been tinkering with an array/system (hate that word) that is designed to hit 5 of 6 at a fraction of the cost. Has anyone heard of this? Is there a flaw to it that I don't see? Please save me from a sucka play as I am sure I am not the first to think of this.....Fios runs today!
To AndyScoggin: Red Nation is paid up in the Florida Stallion Stakes series, so he will run on August 16 going 6F at CRC for $100K, if all is well, then 7F for $150K in September and the finale is $400K going 1 1/16 (?) in October, so we'll see....Glad I could be of help (Ha!) on the mutuel side, I too bet to WP, and was just a little sick when I saw all the exotic prices, though I did have a $20 straight pick 3 with Benny the Bull & that 4-5 shot in the last. Good luck at Saratoga in August, but we're going July 24th.
steve. cougar, exceller, john henry, perrault lemhi gold,vandlandingham all grade 1 winners on both turf and dirt
I agree with bpm - hoping steve- you continue your day by day information and recap of the saratoga meet! We love that! - tough to be there more then a few days, from WISC!
Horse to Watch-- RANDY'S PUPPY loves turf, and goes out on top. Best distance is 6-7 panels.Will be running at WO in another 10 days, or else at Fort Erie. Led all the way in 50,000 Maiden race for fillies and mares.Just missed at 24-1 on the lawn.Distance was one mile--too far.