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Weekend recap, Beyers, Ascot
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:
*Stephen Foster (CD): Curlin (S. Asmussen/R. Albarado) - 110
*Postponed (Bel): Mint Lane (J. Jerkens/E. Coa) - 106
*Ponche (Crc): Rockerfeller (M. Wolfson/J. Santiago) - 106
*Obeah (Del): Unbridled Belle (T. Pletcher/R. Dominguez) - 104
*Ogden Phipps (Bel): Ginger Punch (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 103
*Unbridled (Crc): Golden Spikes (M. Wolfson/E. Trujillo) - 103
*King Glorious (Hol): High Standards (M. Jones/J. Rosario) - 103
*Battlefield (Mth): Call My Bluff (D. Ryan/P. Cotto Jr.) - 100
*Round Table (Hol): Cedar Mountain - Ire (N. Drysdale/A. Quinonez) - 100
*Scottish Monk (Bel): Tam Lin - GB (S. bin Suroor/J. Castellano) - 100
*Fleur de Lis (CD): Hystericalady (J. Hollendorfer/G. Gomez) - 99
*Affirmed (Hol): Two Step Salsa (J. Canani/V. Espinoza) - 99
*Northern Dancer (CD): Pyro (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 98
*Jaipur (Bel): First Defence (R. Frankel/J. Castellano) - 97
*Carter McGregor Jr. Memorial (LS): Gold Coyote (W. Calhoun/B. Walker Jr.) - 96
*Papua (Bel): Stormin Normandy (R. Dutrow Jr./C. Velasquez) - 96
*Jefferson Cup (CD): Tizdejavu (G. Fox/G. Gomez) - 96
*Alphabet Soup (Pha): Auction Watch (S. Hendriks/K. Carmouche) - 95
*Spend a Buck (Mth): Cool Coal Man (N. Zito/E. Castro) - 95
*U Can Do It (Crc): Dixie Dreamer (M. Wolfson/J. Bridgmohan) - 94
*Mint Julep (CD): Dreaming of Anna (W. Catalano/G. Gomez) - 94
*Susan's Girl (Del): Weathered (K. Grusmark/A. Napravnik) - 94
*Oakland (GG): Bonfante (R. McAnally/F. Alvarado) - 93
*Great Lady M. (Hol): Silky Smooth (J. Mullins/R. Bejarano) - 93
*Floor Show (Del): Magical Forest (J. DeMola/R. Dominguez) - 92
*Free Press (AsD): Ronaldino (T. Jordan/A. Cuthbertson) - 92
*Eatontown (Mth): Social Queen (A. Goldberg/J. Lezcano) - 92
*Big Bubble (Crc): Mysterious Peintre - Fr (M. Wolfson/E. Trujillo) - 91
*Budweiser Emerald (EmD): Nationhood (M. Chambers/S. Martinez) - 91
*President's Cup (Lnn): Out Gamble (C. Washburn/Y. Yaranga) - 91
*Bernie Dowd (Mth): Luna Park (J. Tammaro III/C. Marquez Jr.) - 90
*Regret (CD): Pure Clan (R. Holthus/J. Leparoux) - 90
*Herald Gold Plate (StP): Teagues Fight (D. MacDonald/S. Heiler) - 90
*Sydney Gendelman Memorial (RD): Acts Like a King (K. Nemann/N. Solomon) - 89
*Georgia Oaks (Crc): Alpha Charmer (P. Gleaves/M. Cruz) - 89
*Acclaim (EvD): Ide Like a Double (B. Gilbert/K. Clark) - 89
*Ballade (WO): London Snow (J. Charalambous/S. Bahen) - 89
*Zadracarta (WO): Becky Sharp (A. Smith/R. Landry) - 88
*Jostle (Pha): Dulce Realidad (R. Vega/J. Flores) - 88
*Cyclones (PrM): Red Hot N Gold (K. Von Hemel/T. Thompson) - 87
*Minnesota H.P.B.A Mile (Cby): Lemonlime (A. Granitz/W. Martinez) - 86
*Bold Ruckus (WO): Stuck in Traffic (N. Gonzalez/D. Clark) - 86
*John D. Marsh (Cnl): Frisky Thunder (J. Murphy/E. Camacho) - 85
*Strawberry Morn (Hst): Lady Raj (T. Taylor/M. Gutierrez) - 84
*Alberta Derby (StP): Arkhill (C. MacPherson/R. Walcott) - 82
*Leave Me Alone (Crc): Orinoquia (R. Garcia/E. Nunez) - 80
*Victoria (WO): Southern Exchange (G. De Gannes/J. Jones) - 80
*Salute (EvD): Superior Storm (R. Jackson/J. Jacinto) - 78
*Hawkeyes (PrM): Beyond the Reach (J. Barkley/C. Montalvo) - 77
*It's Binn Too Long (CT): Shesdebonairess (D. Capuano/J. Acosta) - 77
*Oakley (Cnl): Ghost Dancing (A. Dutrow/J. Lopez) - 75
*Magic City Classic (RD): Ack Magical (W. Hicks/R. Prescott) - 74
*Molly Brown (ArP): Ladysgotthelooks (K. Gleason/M. Ziegler) - 74
*Duchess of York (StP): Tanika (B. Brown/S. Heiler) - 74
*Susan B. Anthony (FL): Wishing Wishes (D. Bireta/J. Flores) - 73
*Penny Ridge (StP): Lady Lev (R. McKenzie/S. Beauregard) - 72
*Governor's (Ind): Ryan's Thunder (G. Leonard III/V. Lebron) - 67
*B L's Sweep (Crc): Bee Cee Cee (E. Plesa Jr./A. Smith) - 63
*Matchmaker (Lnn): My Hobby (L. Staroscik/L. Delorme) - 60
*Indiana First Lady (Ind): Model's Memo (T. Drury Jr./O. Mojica) - 56
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for the high (and low) Beyer Stakes horses of the week:
Tomorrow is Opening Day at Royal Ascot. Here are a few opinions on the card:
Sageburg enjoyed a good in-out trip in winning the Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp, and the lightly-raced gray can make it two in a row over stablemate Darjina, and Godolphin's Literato.
Selections: Sageburg, Darjina, Cesare
Fleeting Spirit didn't break well last time, but she emerged from the pack with a strong late rally to win going away. She steps up in class, but her sharp form can't be ignored.
Selections: Fleeting Spirit, Benbaun, Takeover Target
Prince of Wales's:
Henrythenavigator took the measure of next-out Epsom Derby winner New Approach in the Irish 2,000 Guineas under only moderate encouragement, and is extremely comfortable at this mile trip.
Selections: Henrythenavigator, Falco, Raven's Pass
Icesolator steps up seeking his fourth straight win, and should be a good price to boot. He never really had any anxious moments with an inside, pace-pressing win at Sandown on May 29.
Selections: Icesolator, Art Connoisseur, Orizaba
Back tomorrow with Handicappers of the Week and more.
Whichever stud we choose to breed My Hobby (Blumin Affair by Dynaformer/Wavering Moment by Wavering Monarch) to in 2010 will be lucky because the foal will be a Grade 1 Winner Nebraska Bred (First since Dazzling Falls). Trippi looks good as does Smoke Glacken as does Cuvee. But, where is the Wavering Monarch stud we want? Any suggestions? Btw, My Hobby's four-year-old sister won three in a row this year to open the season and then finished an impressive fourth in the Matchmaker (won by her older sister). She looks only to get better as we did not race her as a three-year-old due to surgery on her ankle). She is huge and quick and has grown into her enormous body. She makes Cigar look like the runt of the litter.
Ray & Tinky, We seem to be in agreement. I was just hypothesizing, as Tinky said. The $100 mil figure was just a figure with no rhyme or reason. Even Fu Peg was sold for "only" $60 million and Smarty Jones pulled in a $39 million deal. The idea of selling stud rights and owners keeping control of the horse's racing career isn't without precedent. I know this was the case with Lawyer Ron, although it was an Estate issue, not a typical owner. The deal Smarty's owners made with Three Chimneys was that the Chapmans were to make all of the racing decisions and they would determine when the horse retired. Then, of course, Smarty developed a pimple on his butt so they retired him that August. Sure, there's a risk to continue racing, but the horse could get hurt at any time, not just on the race track. Saint Liam fractured a leg on the way to his paddock while at stud at Lanes End and had to be put down. If BB's value dropped after the Belmont, then the best course would be to race him. One or two more typical BB races against overmached three year olds would be the best option to regain his value in the eyes of the public and breeders. I believe there is more risk of a good horse's value dropping from age two to age three than from age three to four. Once a horse starts to get good at the end of his three year old season, it's rare for him to go backwards at age four. Granted, other three year olds who weren't so good in their early 3 year old season might catch up in development and become better. Off the top of my head, Funny Cide didn't do so hot after a good two and three year old season, but was it because he became a head case or that other horses matured later on? It seems some of those who originally got into racing because they loved horses and racing have been overcome by greed. I think we all know how our current situation of "race till they're three then retire them" came about. Am I idealistic? Probably. Maybe if Curlin has a sensational four year old year and receives a huge stud deal, other owners will consider running their horses at age four, hoping to cash in on more money. Until the "what's in it for me and how much can I profit off my horse" mentality changes we're in for more of the same ridiculous stud deals and early retirement.
Hi Laura, What do you think it will cost to insure a horse for $100 million for a year? I believe the cost would be in the $6 to $10 million dollar range. You are going to need to have a very big year just to handle the insurance premiums. And I am not sure that you could get a premium for a $100 mil. The breeding farm that you want to sell the breeding rights only to has no risk if you are going to run him. However, the breeding farm probably is not going to make the deal with you because the upside is such a risk. Laura, you paint a great scenario. I would love to hear from some breeders out there to see if Laura's plan would work. I have my doubts on your plan. From what I have read - and I sure don't believe everything I read - Big Brown's value dropped like a rock after the Belmont debacle. Dan, or anyone, your thoughts on this please?
As I'm sure Laura would admit, her post was not a "plan", but rather a fantasy. But for your benefit, Ray, you're much more likely to hit the lottery than to ever see – let alone own – a $57,000 yearling which is subsequently insured for $100 million. Big Brown was inflated at $50m, and wouldn't have been worth anywhere near $100m even if he had won the Triple Crown. For a stallion prospect to be valued at anywhere near those dizzying heights, it must have a serious pedigree to go along with an exceptional race record. The last horse without a reasonably strong pedigree to become a top sire in the U.S. was Seattle Slew, so only real optimists (aka suckers) would pay a high stud fee for a horse with a weak pedigree and expect to end up with a high-class runner (breeding to sell is a slightly different matter). Robert Clay only put up 10% for the rights to stand BB, and while I'm sure he's not happy about the current situation, it's IEAH that stands to suffer the most from BB's decline in value. With respect to Curlin and the Arc, I'm glad to see that there are a number of skeptics out there. He has very little realistic chance of winning that race, as he is not likely to be well-suited to the conditions, and will be facing far better horses than the ones which he has been trouncing on the dirt. He's a very good horse, to be sure, but it would be much more realistic for him to win a big turf race in the U.S.
"Erroneous assumptions can be disastrous" = Peter F. Drucker This better explains my handicapping experiences lately.
Dan, What are the stats on Deputy Minister as a broodmare sire. Seems like mare's from him would be held in high regard considering the success of Better Than Honor and Sheriffs Deputy.
I would recommend anyone go to YouTube and look up Zarkava's French Oaks win or New Approach's Epsom Derby and you can tell me if you still think Curlin could go over there and handle both of those horses at weight for age......Curlin's great but Zarkava might be the best French filly since Miesque (except Zarkava has a lot more stamina than Miesque had).
Steve T. or any of the Blue Boxers buys a yearling for say $57,000. The yearling is bred to excel at a mile or so on the dirt. The horse has a great 2 yo campaign and then wins the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Steve T. or any of the Blue Boxers is then offered $50 million for his horse before the Belmont (a race he is not bred to win). Steve T. or any of the Blue Boxers takes the deal. The horse does not run in the Belmont and is retired to a farm in Kentucky. So do you guys hate Steve T. or any of the Blue Boxers for taking the money? I don't. Steve T. or any of the Blue Boxers has now set his family up for many generations to come. Why is someone who takes the money and stops on a horse that you have fallen in love with a bad guy? Jim Tafel did this with Street Sense. Smarty's folks did this as well. There are countless others. These folks don't leave the game, they continue to invest in it. And, amazingly they become one of the few that will actually show a profit in the game. I for one would love to see Steve T. or any of the Blue Boxers go to Keeneland and get their dream started.
BTW, Forgot to mention - Anne Mitchell maiden alert at Prairie Meadows for Friday...
Stephen Taylor, We need Curlin at Arlington. The Million hasn't attracted the top turfers the last coupla years. A few have stayed in NY to run in the Man O'War. It's about time they raised the purse, don't you think. Now would be the perfect time in order to entice the Curlin connections. The purses for all three races need to be increased, especially the Secretariat so we don't lose top 3yr olds to Colonial Downs. Oh, and Dan, Atoned did hang. Why do some horses just refuse to go by? Is that the herd mentality of a horse? Any other notable hangers anyone can remember?