04/11/2008 10:40PM

Weekend opinions


Jenny Wiley:
This is a top-notch field, and you can make a legitimate case for most of them.  I'm going to try and go for a big price with Arravale.  I know, I know, she hasn't done much since winning the E.P. Taylor and Del Mar Oaks as a three-year-old, but I think she was thrown in some overly-ambitious spots last year while clearly not in top form.  She took on the boys in the Woodbine Mile (only beaten five lengths), and was eliminated in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf when another horse bolted in her path.  Does she have anything left at age five?  I don't know, but I'll find out at good odds.  Bit of Whimsy takes on older horses after winning three graded stakes last year, and as a lightly-raced four-year-old, she still may have some upside.  She won the QE II over this course last year, but I didn't like how she hopped back to her wrong lead in the closing stages of the Mrs. Revere at Churchill.  Sealy Hill picked up the title of Canada's best turf mare from Arravale in 2007, and she fought hard when losing the E.P. Taylor to the hard-hitting European Mrs. Lindsay.  I have a feeling she'll fire fresh for Mark Casse.  Precious Kitten blossomed as a four-year-old with big wins in the John C. Mabee and Matriarch.  She ran well over this course in the First Lady, and had similar problems as Arravale in the Breeders' Cup. Her tactical speed gives her an advantage in a race without much early zip.  I've never really been a Lady of Venice fan, but she really likes this course, and switches to Edgar Prado.  Steve T's nemesis, Rutherienne, is eight for ten lifetime, but has only raced once since last fall, and she had to summon all of her class to beat weaker in the Genter at Calder.  She may need a bit more pace help up front.
Selections:  Arravale, Bit of Whimsy

Quick and Dirty Selections:

Instant Racing:  Oh Lovely, Euphony, Day of Victory

Commonwealth:  Forefathers

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I'd like to know.

In a bit of a rush this evening so I'll have to cut this blog short.  Next time, I'll get to your questions and comments, and post some of the lifetime pp's you asked for.

Good luck this weekend!


johnnyz More than 1 year ago
Laura, Please congratulate Avalyn Hunter and, associates on tbhorsepedigree.com. Played around there for awhile tonignt on Monba's family was really impressed. It was easy to navigate and, I did like the broodmare sire reports. I posted the obvious about Monba last night, ie. by Marias's Mon, who sired Monarchos (Derby winner). Dam is Hanba who is out of Easy Goer, a HS to By Your Leave, Hadif, Secret Hello, and Silent Account, all stakes winners. Monba's 5th dam Hipparete is out of Alcibiades. Hipparete had three stakes wining daughters, Out Talk, Pillow Talk, and Rash Statement. Pillow Talk, Monba's fourth dam won the Black-Eyed Susan S and was 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks. Alcibiades is a well kept secret when it comes to blue bloodlines. First off, England's horse of the year in 1968 descends from Alcibiades. Her foals include Flaring Top, dam of Nijinsky II, also foaled Menow, the sire of champion Tom Fool. Also foaled Spring Run, the Dam of Red God who sired Blushing Groom! Monba is also 4x4 to Buckpasser, also has a win over the Churchill surface. I guess what I'm getting at is with his come home time on the tiring kitty-liter track @ Keeneland, I think Pletcher has a live one. Part of that comes from a year when every page you turn with the Derby preps is a negative or a big question mark. Well I am trying my best to focus on the Positive. One other note with the Pletcher exacta @ Keeneland. And BTW, I am not a big Pletcher fan. Cowboy Cal got beat upon pretty badly when ESPN's Bill Finley posted the first top 10 Derby list last winter. If I recall correctly he ranked him 1 or 2. I'm not going to get into CC's pedigree as deep as Monbas, but I like Cal's action on the track and, his fluid stride. By Giants Causeway, out of a Seeking the Gold mare it is not a far stretch that this one might not like the Churchill surface. Quick note on Cowboy Cal's pedigree, then I'll shut up. His 2nd dam, Maria's Book is out of Northern Dancer. Enough said. CC, possesses the RF factor, 3x4 to Almahoud, through her daughters Cosmoh, and Natalma! Will leave it with this, Pletcher was loaded in last yrs. Derby. Went home with his tail between his legs. Don't be suprised if he goes home with a horse draped in roses this year. Closing note; watched every Derby prep at least once last night. While I like CJ to win the Derby, one of the more impressive horses is Bob Black Jack! Would have loved to see him run in the Ark. Derby.
g or g More than 1 year ago
Sorry for the second post, but does anyone know where to find a link showing Adriano's work at CD yesterday morning? They just showed The Colonel working at SA just now on HRTV and he did look magnificent...
RobertSD More than 1 year ago
Elise - I agreed 110% with your post about Supah Blitz. It's really sad that they felt they needed the cash that came from that game late running third -- and the subsequent $32K claim. I understand it's ten's of thousands today, but he made them millions. - RobertSD
g or g (melissa) More than 1 year ago
Sergio (Sripa), Since you'll be in town next week for the Lexington maybe you could meet myself, my boyfriend, and a few other Form Bloggers at the track on Saturday. My bf is in law school at U of Louisville but I know he thinks your horse has a heck of a shot in the Derby and would love to take horses with you. Let me know. If you're interested I can give you my e-mail. (Although you probably will have awesome clubhouse seats while I only have grandstand seats for Lexington day) :) Dan--aren't you coming to LexVegas this weekend as well? Maybe I can buy us all a round of beers. What do ya say?
Elise More than 1 year ago
Supah Blitz, For being such a fan of the horse, you sure seem not to understand much about racing. There is a HUGE difference between bringing a horse back to competition, and dumping him in a claiming race. Lava Man is no comparison. His connections gave him a well needed break and now he is being pointed to stakes races, NOT being dumped for 32K. Now that Supah Blitz has been claimed, his previous owners, who he earned all that money for, have no control over him. He is a 32K investment for his new owner. Do you see a tremendous amount of upside for this horse? 8 years old, a failure at stud, 3rd in a 32K claiming race, and dumped by his owners. Like I said, I hope his new owners do right by him but there are no guarantees. The claiming game can be a slippery slope for any horse, much less one that is already 8 and can't have that many good racing years left in him. What happens if he starts slipping down through the ranks and goes lame? Keep an eye out at your local auction and you might figure out what happens to those horses. The horse has nothing left to prove. I sure hope this story has a happy ending, but it sure doesn't look good for him.
C More than 1 year ago
A few other things: 1- Everyone is asking what Pyro could have possibly gotten out of his 10th place effort in the Blue Grass. Well, what did Monba get out of his dead-last performance in the FOY? Apparently enough. 2- The 10 and 12 furlong races Tomcito ran in South America are not equivalent to the way we race in the USA. He "got" the distance down there, but those races are basically 2-furlong sprints to the wire after loping along for a mile or so. If he doesn't show another dimension or some more tactical speed, I'm not convinced he'll be effective at 10-12 furlongs in this country. I'll be interested to see how he's positioned in the early stages of the shorter Lexington. 3- Hey Byrn's driving finish in 1:58 was not very flattering. I don't see it happening for him if he gets in.
C More than 1 year ago
scianc22, I totally agree about the East-coast West-coast thing. Thank you. I really don't understand the regional attachments people have when it comes to horses. Horses don't "represent".
Riley More than 1 year ago
Am I the only one who is suprised that Sugar Swirl is not on the Watchmaker Watch list for top ten older fillies? I mean, she dominated the series of graded stakes on dirt at Gulfstream. I think she deserves a mention.
Elise More than 1 year ago
I don't post often but the Supah Blitz situation just makes me sick. Since when does earning your owner over $1.3 million not earn you an easy retirement somewhere? I don't care if he didn't make it at stud, he earned a comfortable pasture somewhere a long time ago. Hopefully his new owners take care of him. Is there an Exceller Fund alert system? If so, I'd put him on it. Poor guy.
Laura More than 1 year ago
Steve T, Remember Giacomo and Closing Argument were in the "Twilight Zone"? I loved Closing Argument that year and cashed an across the board ticket on him and Giacomo. If there is too fast of a pace in the Derby, as many seem to think with War Pass needing the lead and along with Recapturetheglory, Gayago, Bob Black Jack and Big Brown sitting just off of him, my money is on the closers and obviously, which ever of them get the best trip will win. I honestly wasn't impressed with Hey Bryn's Holy Bull. He seemed to be struggling to pass the leaders on a very slow pace. The most tractable horse seems to be Colonel John who can be placed just about anywhere and I have to love Tomcito wants the distance and of course, CV gearing up for a good race. Had there been another 1/8 in the WM, he would have won! LarryK, I was disappointed to read the First Sat. in May won't be playing anywhere near me, so I plan to buy the DVD when it goes on sale (pre-sale May 1st). Here's the website for those interested: http://www.thefirstsaturdayinmay.com/. Also, This week's Bloodhorse magazine had an interesting article about the directors and the film. It's remarkable that they picked five trainers to follow and four of them made it to the Derby, including the winner. They also mentioned that they had to cut 90 minutes of film because the story would have been too muddled. I hope they reconsider adding the footage at a later date for racing fans. Hell, if we can handicap a large field of horses going from dirt to poly to turf and back again, use speed figures, pace figures and go figures, we can follow an extra 90 minutes of film, right? Sripa, Good luck in the Lexington! I'm looking for the first Derby dead heat between Court Vision and Tomcito, with CJ a nose behind! And Cayman? I was the one who posted the comment about Zuiderzee, it was supposed to be a joke! Could you see Mike Battaglia calling that name? The race would be 3/4 over while he's still calling the horse for the lead!