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Weekend comments, Beyers, fractional times
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:
*Oaklawn (OP): Tiago (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith) - 110
*Carter (Aqu): Bustin Stones (B. Levine/E. Prado) - 109
*Excelsior (Aqu): Temporary Saint (B. Levine/C. Lopez) - 105
*Apple Blossom (OP): Zenyatta (J. Shirreffs/M. Smith) - 104
*Arcadia (SA): Daytona - Ire (D. Hendricks/A. Solis) - 103
*Illinois Derby (Haw): Recapture the Glory (L. Roussel III/E. Baird) - 102
*Bay Shore (Aqu): J Be K (S. Asmussen/G. Gomez) - 100
*Bachelor (OP): Lantana Mob (S. Asmussen/L. Quinonez) - 100
*Fantasy (OP): Eight Belles (J. Jones/R. Dominguez) - 99
*Lafayette (KEE): Keep Laughing (K. McLaughlin/J. Velazquez) - 99
*Potrero Grande (SA): Greg's Gold (D. Hofmans/V. Espinoza) - 97
*Pan American (GP): Presious Passion (M. Hartmann/A. Smith) - 97
*Primonetta (Lrl): Hungarian Boatbaby (A. Dutrow/A. Castellano Jr.) - 96
*Sensational Star (SA): Lucky J. H. (C. Gaines/V. Espinoza) - 96
*California Turf Sprint Championship (BM): Bonfante (R. McAnally/F. Alvarado) - 95
*Santa Anita Derby (SA): Colonel John (E. Harty/C. Nakatani) - 95
*Sam Houston Turf Sprint Cup (Hou): Smitty's Sunshine (M. Nicks/E. Martin Jr.) - 95
*Hilton Garden Inn Sprint (Tam): Blue Pepsi Lodge (K. Ziadie/W. Henry) - 94
*OBS Sophomore (Tam): Repenting (J. Ness/D. Centeno) - 94
*Las Flores (SA): Tiz Elemental (C. Gaines/V. Espinoza) - 94
*James M. Levitch Illinois Owners (Haw): Distorted Groom (O. Rainwater/J. Lantz) - 93
*Cherokee River Stables Turf Classic (Tam): Soldier's Dancer (D. Vivian/D. Centeno) - 93
*Wood Memorial (Aqu): Tale of Ekati (B. Tagg/E. Prado) - 93
*Valentine Dancer (SA): Tiz a Blend (C. Gaines/V. Espinoza) - 93
*John B. Connally Turf (Hou): Scrappy Roo (J. Locke/P. Nolan) - 91
*Meafara (Haw): La Wildcat (B. Flint/T. Thornton) - 90
*Wildcat (TuP): Mighty Bodacious (D. Vannorsdel/R. Eikleberry) - 90
*Ashland (Kee): Little Belle (K. McLaughlin/R. Maragh) - 88
*L and D Farm Turf Distaff (Tam): Bayou's Lassie (C. Clement/D. Centeno) - 87
*Central Bank Transylvania (Kee): Boss Lafitte (T. Amoss/R. Albarado) - 86
*Jersey Lilly (Hou): Barbette (D. Pish/Q. Hamilton) - 85
*Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf (Tam): El Sultry Sun (J. Kimmel/J. Velez Jr.) - 84
*Providencia (SA): Missit - Ire (B. Cecil/V. Espinoza) - 84
*Stonehedge Farm South Soph. Fillies (Tam): Moonshine Alice (G. Bennett/A. Ramgeet) -80
*Personal Girl (Aqu): Karakorum Starlet (J. Odintz/S. Elliott) - 79
*Daylight Sprint Thoroughbred (Sun): Stonestreet Song (S. Asmussen/C. Lambert) - 79
*Scottsdale (TuP): Bitterbutsweet (D. Morgan/S. Stevens) - 78
*La Voyageuse (WO): Shilla (N. Gonzalez/D. Clark) - 78
*Arizona Stallion (TuP): White Spar (K. Lewis/S. Gann) - 76
*Perfect Poppy (Aqu): All Night Labor (T. Nunley/S. Elliott) - 74
*Pepsi (Fon): Preciousville (D. Coughlin/L. Ranilla) - 54
Here are the lifetime past performances for "Big Beyer" Tiago:
Let's take a look at some of the incremental times for the Big 3 Derby Preps (according to Formulator 4.1):
*Tale of Ekati - (23.55, 22.88, 25.52, 26.74, 13.66)
Fastest incremental times in the Wood Memorial:
1Q - War Pass - 22.46
2Q - Roman Emperor - 22.54
3Q - Court Vision - 24.16
STR - Court Vision - 25.79
FIN - Spurrier - 13.52
*Colonel John (24.15, 24.17, 24.36, 23.39, 12.10)
Fastest incremental times in the Santa Anita Derby:
1Q - Coast Guard - 23.33
2Q - Shore Do - 23.89
3Q - El Gato Malo - 23.87
STR - Yankee Bravo - 23.22
FIN - Colonel John - 12.10
*Recapturetheglory (24.17, 24.47, 24.20, 24.05, 12.12)
Fastest incremental times in the Illinois Derby
1Q - Recapturetheglory - 24.17
2Q - Real Appeal - 24.00
3Q - TIE, Atoned, Denis of Cork - 23.93
STR - TIE, Atoned, Recapturetheglory - 24.05
FIN - Recapturetheglory - 12.12
Tell me if these numbers mean anything to you.
Want to get the numbers out to you so I'll be back tomorrow with 'cappers of the week, and responses to as many questions and comments that I can.
Thanks again for your heartfelt wishes this weekend. They really meant a lot to me.
Dan:dissuade FROM...persuade TO
Greg, Just maidens, although I may follow them out - but so few break their maiden... Of course no sooner than I mention it and one of them wins today - Dixie Jo who was a $12,000 purchase with $50,000 stud fee (Dixie Union).
While not knowing any of you personally, what an incredible family. Many thanks to all for the well wishes concerning my mother. BTW, Dr Laura, and Dr Alan. You were both right, to keep it short mom was taking a baby aspirin along with another pill that could cause her blood to thin. She will have some sort of micro-procedure on her small intestine that will make everything ok. New grandson is doing well. Is learning early, helped his hand push the enter button while completing a W/P bet on #2 in the 7th @ Hawthorne today. Didn't win, but did hit the place. Steve T. agree with all your reasoning on Colnel John. Have to add that another big plus is his professional demeanor. He looked like a seasoned pro in the paddock, post parade, and most importantly when he fell back in the turn he just went to work and, got the job done. Also have to mention his final 3/8ths in 35 1/5, last 1/4 in 23 1/5, and a 12 flat last 1/8th may not gaurantee a Derby winner, but it sure as heck has major contender written all over it. Dan, saw your question on times earlier. Don't have time to study tonight Hopefully will be able to respond tomorrow. Calvin, don't count Pletcher out yet. I could really be wrong, but I expect Cowboy Cal to run huge in the Bluegrass this weekend. Hate to close on a sad note, but just read Alan's post that Lauren Stich is leaving DFR. What a shame. Also, have to add that it is a crying shame that Denis of Cork's connections really made a stupid move with his preps. What a shame that such a talented horse may not even make the Derby. Best To All!
had my best gambling weekend of the year. Had the $980 tri on wood day as well as the ekati bustin stones double...Sunday just missed the pick 3 as I lost by about an inch in the 5th at the big a. Zayat and levine both had nice weekends. War pass go to the withers then Preakness or met mile please don't ruin this one zito.
Alan, Isn't Tale of Ekati out of a Sunday Silence mare? I'm not on his (or anyone's) bandwagon, but he was still grinding away after being close to that pace. In Kentucky, I expect Tale of Ekati to be far back, probably in the 3rd or 4th flight. If he gained some fittness from the Wood and can run an easier pace, I see no reason why he can't produce a sustained run with an added furlong. ----------------------------- As for Court Vision, I don't know that a 1-turn mile victory in October translates into anything at 1 1/4 versus 19 in May. He comes running at every track. So does Pyro. The Remsen was a good race, although my grandmother could probably run down "heart-lite, please nip me at the wire" Atoned. Court Vision is pretty good, I'm just not convinced he's stepped it up from last year. I believe Riley is correct that he must improve to wear the roses.
Johnny Z, Sorry this is a little late but Congratulations on your grandchild. Way to start him off early with the WP bet! You can never start them too early. I had the doctors wrap my daughter in the Racing Form when she was born:) JK. I hope your mom is feeling better and we will keep her in our thoughts and hope everything goes well with her procedure. Alan, The family is doing well. Thanks for asking. The wife and I are actually going to Aruba for a few nights next week for our 3rd Anniversary. Its been kind of neat to see money in the account consistently since I have hardly been playing. I am going to play with a very small bankroll this Saturday so hopefully everything goes well. It will be my Prep for the Derby. If all goes well then I will be able to play on Derby Day.
I wrote this last week and I’m going to reiterate it again because I firmly believe it to be true for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Workouts are going to be a MAJOR piece of the handicapping puzzle this time around. That isn’t to say that they haven’t been important before, but with most of the West Coast contingent has never run on the surface. The only gage we’re going to get as to how they’ll adjust will be workouts. I know the commentators on NBC were talking about Col. John’s stride length and how they thought it would transfer to dirt, but I’m going to hold off making any final decisions until I see how they go over the surface at Churchill in the mornings. Dan, I hope your father is feeling better. Best of luck in the next few weeks trying to find a way to convince him to recuperate. Riley, Good luck with Court Vision. I was THRILLED to see him get up for third at the wire in the Wood. Especially since I had a trifecta ticket with Tale of Ekati, War Pass, and Court Vision in the top two spots with Giant Moon finishing third at 22 to 1. That one cost papa a brand new bag. I’m just kidding a bit, but good luck to you and the team on the way to Kentucky.
RE: Adjusted BSFs to "Projected" Dan, I'm going to throw out my issues with this idea of subjectively "projecting" BSFs and if the folks from Beyer have a smart answer that I'm simply missing, please let me know. By the way, when did they start "projecting", I didn't think they did this?? Issue 1: When I'm looking at PPs and see a figure and then observe a really slow pace how do I adjust a figure that may or may not have been "projected" and then how should I know to what degree it was "projected"? At least the Ragozin people put symbols by their figures to help you understand what they're doing... Issue 2: While the "projected" figure may make sense relative to the winner's established ability, there is an unfortunate inflation of figures for some of the losers who actually ran to their slower ability and are now getting a "projected" bump (rising tide lifting all boats) and are getting figures that they are just not capable of and are therefore misleading predictive indicators of future performance. What's so bad about speed figures adjusted only for the assessed speed of the surface? That's what I've always liked about Beyers! What constituency are they now trying to appease by opening Pandora's box?
Steve T., I was there to watch Zenyatta's win in the Apple Blossom and yes she was outstanding. The splits for the race were 23:2,47.1,1:11.3,1:36.2 and 1:42:3. If you think she could compete against the boys then you have to think Eight Belles could as well as here spilts for the same distance were 24:1,48,1:12.2,1:36.3 and 1:43. That's only 2 ticks off Zenyatta's time. I am not saying that Eight Belles is as good as Zenyatta but she might be as good as the males.
RE: Colonel John and BSF for Santa Anita Derby First of all, I think the BSF assignment on the Santa Anita Derby is pretty straightforward and I've got no problem with it. Now, does that mean that someone should conclude that CJ hasn't run a fast enough BSF to be competitive in the Derby and is therefore a toss out, of course not! The reality is that synthetic BSFs are not reliable predictive indicators of future performance over a dirt surface, for better or worse... The problem that I've got in betting on CJ at a relatively short price (6-1 in pool 3) is that we've got to take a leap of faith that he can do something that he's never established that he can do (run a Derby competitive BSF over a dirt surface). Frankly, it wouldn't shock me if he did run huge at Churchill but I simply don't think the leap of faith risk is properly accounted for in current projected pricing. Figuring that he's the best of the West, the question is how good are the horses running on synthetic in the West compared to those running on dirt in the East? I have no idea and no means to getting comfortable with this answer and therefore I'll need a price to take the shot. I'll take War Pass at 14-1 versus Colonel John at 6-1 right now and feel very good about it...