10/14/2008 2:50PM

Weekend Beyers, questions

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Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Wild and Wonderful West Virginia (CT):  Eddie C. (C. Grove/J. Acosta) - 103

*Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (Kee):  Alwajeeha (K. McLaughlin/J. Velazquez) - 100

*Fall (Mnr):  Rikman (B. Brown/D. Parker) - 99
*Cliff Hanger (Med):  Kiss the Kid (A. Tarrant/R. Maragh) - 98
*Bryan Station (Kee):  Cowboy Cal (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 96 (***Seaspeak finished first, but was dq'd to second)
*House Party (Bel): J Z Warrior (W. Mott/J. Bravo) - 96
*Lure (OSA):  Global Hunter - Arg (A. Avila/J. Valdivia Jr.) - 95
*Athenia (Bel):  Sunshine for Life (R. Schosberg/C. Hill) - 95
*Xtra Heat (Bel):  Diamondrella - GB (A. Penna Jr./R. Maragh) - 94
*Durham Cup (WO):  Palladio (R. Attfield/R. Dos Ramos) - 94
*Trapp Mountain (Bel):  Royal Vindication (S. Hough/J. Castellano) - 94
*Bunty Lawless (WO):  Sand Cove (R. Attfield/R. Dos Ramos) - 94
*Seton Hall University (Med):  Zada Belle (S. bin Suroor/S. Elliott) - 94
*Kangaroo Court (OSA):  Hurry Up Austin (M. Stute/M. Martinez) - 93
*Carotene (WO):  Sugar Bay (M. Benson/J. Jones) - 93
*Pebbles (Bel):  Remarkable Remy (J. Kimmel/R. Dominguez) - 92
*Harold C. Ramser Sr. (OSA):  Tasha's Miracle (J. Sadler/M. Smith) - 91
*Perryville (Kee):  Hatta Fort - GB (S. bin Suroor/J. Leparoux) - 90
*Buffalo Trace Franklin County (Kee):  Sly Storm (T. Proctor/H. Theriot II) - 90

*JP Morgan Chase Jessamine (Kee):  Laragh (J. Terranova II/E. Prado) - 89
*Hawthorne Derby (Haw):  Strait of Mewsina - Ire (L. Rivelli/E. Baird) - 89
*Mt. Sassafras (WO):  Archers Alyancer (J. Simms/C. Montpellier) - 88
*Mary D. Keim Illinois Owners (Haw):  Labar (R. Lindsay/J. Alvarado) - 88
*Premier's (Hst): Rosberg (D. Condilenios/F. Fuentes) - 87
*Razorback Futurity (LaD):  Texas Birdstone (S. Asmussen/D. Meche) - 87
*Bulldog (Fno):  Top Emblem (R. Sticka/O. Cedeno) - 84
*Ballerina (Hst):  Against the Sky (C. MacPherson/F. Fuentes) - 82

*Dover (Del):  Aspiring Nick (T. Kelly/M. Pino) - 76
*Bull Page (WO):  Mean Green (S. Attard/J. Jones) - 75
*Invitational (PM):  Carrie's Choice (J. Raudales/G. Gavica) - 72

*Lady Razorback Futurity (LaD):  Dona's Diva (T. Dixon/R. Flores) - 69 
*Harvest Futurity (Fno): Epitome of a Lady (J. Hollendorfer/C. Martinez) - 68

*City of Anderson (Hoo):  Queen of Tee (G. Garcia/I. Diego) - 59

*Hillsdale (Hoo):  Tenmor (M. Lauer/T. Pompell) - 57

Here are the lifetime past performances of the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers:

Download EddieTen.pdf

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I have a question for anyone who knows. Who was the last horse with the highest BSF of that year to date to win the BC Classic or any BC race? The last I can remember was Ghostzapper. In fact, he is the only Classic winner that I can remember that had the highest BSF of his particular year. Usually Beyer awards it to some sprinter or miler in an allowance race ( I am generalizing ).
Curlin did not have last year's highest BSF. Nor did Midnite Lute. Going into the Breeder's Cup, I believe it was Commentator; who did nothing in the BC. Curlin did not even have the highest BSF of the BC Classic field, that belonged to Lawyer Ron. So, BSFs proved they are not the end all last year as well.
Dan,
Could you or anyone here who has access post the single highest BSF of each of the last 10 years going into the Breeder's Cup, and a follow up on how each particular year-high BSF awardee did in the BC race that fall? I would be curious to know how often the highest BSF in the country corresponds to proving they are the fastest horse in a BC race...I posit it rarely happens. I think running a very high BSF has more to do with being in the right race at the right track at the right time, irregarless of track variants and other things Beyer factors to make the number more "objective" and track nuetral. Otherwise, the highest BSF of the year before the BC would win the BC routinely.
vicstu

Best Beyer Speed Figures pre-Breeders' Cup 1998-2007:

2007:  Midnite Lute - 124 (Forego, Sar, 9/1/07) - WON Breeders' Cup Sprint
2006:  Bordonaro - 119 (Ancient Title, OSA, 10/7/06) -  4th Breeders' Cup Sprint
2005:  TIE
Commentator - 123 (Whitney, Sar, 8/6/05) - Did Not Race in Breeders' Cup
Saint Liam  - 123 (Whitney, Sar, 8/6/05) - WON Breeders' Cup Classic
2004:  Ghostzapper  - 128 (Iselin, Mth, 8/21/04) - WON Breeders' Cup Classic
2003:  Candy Ride - 123 (Pacific Classic, Dmr, 8/24/03) - Did Not Race in Breeders' Cup
2002:  Swept Overboard - 122 (Metropolitan, Bel, 5/27/02) -  8th Breeders' Cup Sprint
2001:  Aptitude - 123 (Jockey Club Gold Cup, Bel, 10/6/01) -  8th Breeders' Cup Classic
2000:  Stephen Got Even - 120 (Donn, GP, 2/5/00) - Did Not Race in Breeders' Cup
1999:  Artax - 123 (Forest Hills, Bel, 10/16/99) - WON Breeders' Cup Sprint
1998:  TIE
Elusive Quality:  123 (allowance, GP, 2/5/98) -  Did Not Race in Breeders' Cup
Silver Charm:  123 (Kentucky Cup Classic, TP, 9/26/08) - 2nd Breeders' Cup Classic
Wild Rush:  123 (Kentucky Cup Classic, TP, 9/26/08) - 14th Breeders' Cup Sprint

Out of the last 10 years, four pre-BC Beyer tops ended up winning their respective BC heats.

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Dan, I know that Hallowed Dreams was, and Peppers Pride is, undefeated going into their 17th career starts.  Was Mr Frisky also, or did he lose a race or races before launching his winning streak?  Just wondering.
Margi

Dan - could you figure out which one it was, I think it was Hallowed Dreams, and post her PP's?
Steve T

Mister Frisky carried his perfect streak into the 1990 Kentucky Derby.  Most of his wins came in Puerto Rico, but he earned the status of Derby favorite after three impressive stakes wins in Southern California.
Hallowed Dreams was beaten at 1-10 in the Millennium Stakes at Evangeline Downs as she went in search of her 17th straight victory.  After she lost, she went on to win seven more in a row, and nine of her next ten.

Here are the lifetime past performances of Hallowed Dreams:

Download HallowedDreams.pdf

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where did Runawayandhide go? thought he would be running the weekend? is he hurt(not on D/L)?
afleet alex

Marty McGee reported that Run Away and Hide, the impressive undefeated winner of the Saratoga Special, is likely to be retired after suffering an injury during a workout at Keeneland on October 1:

"...Run Away and Hide likely will be retired after suffering a knee injury in an Oct. 1 workout over the Keeneland Polytrack, trainer Ronny Werner said Thursday.

"It's a real tough break for all of us," said Werner, who had hoped to run the unbeaten colt in the BC Juvenile. "The colt's already been operated on, and he's going to be fine, but it looks like he's done racing and headed off to stud."

Run Away and Hide, by City Zip, went 3 for 3 in his abbreviated career, winning a Keeneland maiden race in April, the Grade 3 Kentucky Stakes at Churchill Downs in May, and the Grade 2 Saratoga Special in August. He is owned by Ronald Kirk, John Bates, and Michael Riordan..."

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BABY CURLIN:

Can anyone tell me who the dam and damsire of Square Eddie who crushed that Grade 1 field at Keeneland Sat.is? I was there and didn;t like him till I saw him and even my wife who doesn't know one end of a horse from the other, said Wow, he looks like a man amongst boys. Her exact words, then he went out and ran like it. This horse had a monster forearm, and he was the spitting image of his daddy, Smart Strike. I was hoping someone could give me the information on the mothers side, we done started calling him baby curlin. If Curlin likes polytrack the way this horse does the Classic field is in major trouble.
Hillbilly

Square Eddie, a $200,000 Keeneland September Yearling purchase, is out of the El Gran Senor mare Forty Gran.  She was a multiple stakes-placed performer on the grass, and has already produced Reverently, a stakes-placed runner on the Woodbine polytrack in 2007.
The second dam, Forty Weight (by Quadratic), was a versatile performer.  A multiple stakes-winner, Forty Weight won on turf as well as in main track routes and sprints. 
The third dam,  stakes-placed Opec (by Bagdad), was a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Illiterate, the dam of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Alphabet Soup.

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Dan,

Could you post the lifetime past performances for Ginger Punch?  I seem to remember that she won on an artificial surface early on in her career.  How do you think both her and Cocoa Beach (who owns a turf win in her past performances) will take to the Santa Anita surface for the Ladies Classic?  With Carriage Trail's dominating Spinster win on Sunday, I guess I am just not ready to hand the race to Zenyatta yet.
Mark B

Here they are:

Download GingerPunch.pdf

Ginger Punch did win over Keeneland's polytrack earlier in her career, and also placed in a graded race over that surface in her first start of 2007.  Some fans will take that as a sign that she'll handle the Pro Ride at Santa Anita, but that may be jumping the gun a little bit.  The synthetic surfaces are all different.  A horse that runs well at Keeneland may not succeed at Presque Isle Downs or Hollywood.
Cocoa Beach, a Chilean-bred, won her career debut on turf in her her native land, and we've seen grass form transfer successfully to synthetic surfaces.  She hasn't run on a synthetic track yet, though, with subsequent races in Dubai and New York. 
It may be safe to say that handicappers are taking a leap of faith if they back Breeders' Cup contenders without previous Pro-Ride experience.  Advantage SoCal!

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Also, Dan, has "Race of the Day" fallen by the wayside? Or has it become a sometime thing? You hit some good ones (Cinnamon Kisses, Maram)in past couple of weeks.  You talk, I listen!
Katieattherail

The feature is still on the homepage, and we're aiming for a Wednesday through Friday race schedule.  Sometimes, we may miss a day or two because of scheduling conflicts, but we should be there the majority of the time.  Thanks for watching!

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Can someone please post the race by race past performances for champion mare "Inside Information" -Thanks!
Kevin Collins

Here they are:

Download InsideInfo.pdf

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I know you west coasters have your Unusual Heat first-time-starters. But here in New Jersey we have Mr. Nugget. He had another winner tonight, paid 10 bucks at the Big M. He's around 18-20% on first-timers the last two years. Most of them are trained by Jason Servis, who rarely works his horses fast so you usually get a decent price.
Dan, excellent post on Pepper's Pride. Would you be able to post the PPs of the anti-Pepper's Pride, Zippy
Chippy? Thanks.

I also gather that the Maryland Million is one of those Maryland sire events, like the NY Stallion Series, as opposed to just for Maryland-breds? Because Cuba is definately a NJ-bred. If he's not then we could have another one of those scandals like they had in Ohio. Anyone know what came of that? That horse that ran in the WV Derby had won a lot of money against Ohio breds but they figured out he might not have actually been an Ohio-bred or something like that?
Greg

Mr. Nugget has had a successful year with his debut performers.  According to the DRF Plus Debut Sire Statistics, Mr. Nugget has eight debut runners this season with three winners (38%, $6.85 ROI).  As Greg noted, all of the winning progeny were trained by Jason Servis.  The debut numbers look even more impressive when compared to Mr. Nugget's overall stats (115 starts, nine wins, 8% winners, $1.42 ROI).

The Maryland Million is open to horses by Maryland-based stallions.  Cuba is a New Jersey-bred, but his sire, Not For Love, stands in Maryland.

The Ohio-bred that wasn't Marble Cliff, has had his victories erased from the record book.  Now listed as a Kentucky-bred, Marble Cliff is recovering from a lung infection, and is preparing for a maiden race at Churchill Downs.  Here's the story from Marty McGee:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=98060&subs=0&arc=1

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I have been confused by the class level of these Keeneland allowances. Is this equivalent to a N2X at any other A-level track? It's the "has not won $7500" clause that confuses me.
Kyri

Here were the race conditions from Baroness Thatcher's win at Keeneland on Saturday (congrats Team Zayat and Team Mott!):  "fillies  and mares three-year-olds and upward which have never won $7,500 twice other than maiden, claiming, or starter or which have never won three races."

It's basically a 'n2x' race, but Equibase and the track's racing office consider it a conditioned allowance.

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Larryk, I am 100% sure Winchester is owned at least by members of the same Firstone family that owned Geniune Risk. Will check it out further when I have time. Just sure somewhere in the past I read an article regarding that thought.
The most anticipated two yr. old on my watch list finally ran. Elusive Heat won a 5 1/2F at first asking in a very good time of 103.26 in the 2nd @ BLM.
I expected her to run well as K McLaughlin took forver to get her in the gate. Elusive Heat (Elusisve Quality)-Xtra Heat her dam won 26/35 and hit the board in 33/35. Will be fun to follow this one and see if she can stretch out at all or, be a champion sprinter like her mom.
Dan, do you know what her BSF was?
johnnyz

johnnyz, are you sitting down?  Good.  Elusive Heat earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure for her debut win at Belmont.

The Firestone family that owns Winchester is the same one that owned Genuine Risk and many other successful racehorses.

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HI DAN, WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO LA TRAVIATA?
MIKE B

After last year's Breeders' Cup, La Traviata was sent to Todd Pletcher in California.  She worked a couple of times out there, but was soon retired.  She is now reportedly in foal to Mr. Greeley.

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Back tomorrow morning with the HandiGambling 106 Analysis.  Later in the week, I'll address some more of your questions and comments. 

Cheers,

Dan

ktalbany More than 1 year ago
Alan No superfectas in the 8th race at SA. its eplaced by the Super High Five.
Annie More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, I am so jealous!!! I would love to be there. Maybe some day. Annie
David W More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas which calculator are you using the one I was using had it listed as a super 5 .at $1
David W More than 1 year ago
Alan, For handigambling 106 I'll be the sucker and play the high five. 1$ high five 3,9,10w 3,9,10w 3,5,8,9,10,11w 3,5,8,11w 3,5,8,11 $96 $4 gas to find my way home.
vicstu More than 1 year ago
This talk about Big Brown and Zarkova retiring is dead-on as far as how the financial-breeding aspect of the sport has pretty much turned on the host that feeds it and is in the process of slowly taking bigger and bigger bites out of the lifeblood of the racing business, ie. the graded stakes winning racehorse and their resulting careers. The worse the horse, the longer he is free to run. Each year only a handful of horses are atually talented and fortunate enough to get to the Triple Crown. The better the horse, the larger the shadow of the lurking breeder looms. But its not just the breeder, its the connections... For all we know, Big Brown could be one of the best racehorses that has run-we just do not know. Curlin was to be the acid test. He is the tops on dirt. We know how good Curlin is. We have known that for some time, and that one had the advantage of engaging in battles with Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and, of course, Rags to Riches. Last year's crop was tremendous compared to this year's crop, which is blooming late. As Albarado said, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday were all probably as naturally talented as Big Brown-although personally I thought AGS was dangerous at 9 furlongs and under. I do know if you took BB out of the Derby and put Hard Spun in, HS would have probably won it this year. So, is Big Brown great, or just that much better than this year's crop (with the exception of Eight Belles who was the only horse to go with BB in the Derby stretch)? As for the ongoing debate on pedigree and BB, there was a triple crown winner with Nureyev as his broodmare sire and was also kind of light with the black type winners up close in the female tail line... Here is a copy of Petesky's pedigree: http://www.pedigreequery.com/peteski Note that in addition to having Nureyev as a broodmare sire (ala Big Brown), Petesky was sired by Affirmed. Hence, Petesky is the answer to the often asked question of which Triple Crown winner in North America was himself sired by a Triple Crown winner. Interestingly enough, the Canadian pedigree experts at the time (and now) consider the Northern Dancer line far superior to that of Raise a Native (for soundness and getting a route of ground). In any event, its the bottom half of Peteskys pedigree that reminds me of Big Brown. Go 2 or 3 deep in that female tail line. No black type at all. His second dam never broke her maiden, his 3rd dam won only 3 times in 22 starts. They were chosen as broodmare soley on the grounds that they came from great classic stock 3 or 4 back (sound familiar). To be sure, there was no Northern Dancer cross on top and bottom, but the was a cross on top and bottom to Native Dancer (the broodmare sire of Northern Dancer). So, its all relative in time. For instance, Ribot appears 4 back underneath in Petesky's pedigree, and he is 6 back in Big Brown's bottom pedigree. There are other similarities, but the point remains the same without further elaboration. And while BB has Round Table and Lear Fan, along with Roberto, Petesky had similar turf and distance influences that injected stamina and turf form 3 or 4 back, similar to BB. While all the time you have to go back 3 or 4 deep undeneath to find a true graded stakes winning filly in his tail line. Petesky was the real deal. Here, he crushed the Derby Winner, The Belmont Winner and the Travers winner in the Molson Challenge. 1993 Molson Challenge: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kI_wTa9ZN90&feature=related In addition to winning the Queen's Plate (10f gr 1) and the Breeders Stakes (12f gr 1T) in convincing wire to wire fashion, Petesky rated just off the pace in 3rd and exploded in the stretch to win going away in the Price of Whales Stakes (9.5f gr 1). Petesky demolished the track record in 1:54.2 in the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. Watch Petesky explode in the stretch after sitting just off very fast fractions. The Prince of Whales Stakes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EY4TCEQfAyA&feature=related Petesky was very much like Big Brown. Bred to run on turf, trainer insisted he was better on turf, great tactical speed and a tremendous late kick if allowed to control the pace early. Petesky also raced only once like BB as a 2 year old. So add no foundation to that list of similars. His stride and head action was even similar. And the horse wanted to run, he would get restless if rated for too long, but he could sit just like BB off of a decent pace and get first pounce in the stretch. IMHO, Petesky proved himself, and was a true Triple Crown champion. While there was major black type on the top of that pedigree, it was wanting some on the bottom but was more than made up for by the obvious stamina that somehow was injected to this horse dispite the lack of black type winners up close underneath. Petesky obviously got that brilliant speed and tremendous kick to go 10 and 12 furlongs, on turf and dirt from somewhere. Does it help like Tinky says to have black type in the dam, and her dam, and her dam? Of course. Is it an absolute necessity or the end-all arbiter in inheriting class and stamina? Well, in the case of BB and Petesky, I would say the answer is an obvious no. We have this kind of debate all the time amongst criminal defense attorneys and constitutional lawyers. The latter study the law, and sit in ivory towers stating how the law should be. The criminal defense attorneys are on the ground in the battles and know the practical effect of said laws. The constantly scoff about so-called constitutional rights. I cannot help but suspect that there is a similar dynamic here between the field agents, buyers and purchasing advisors and those that break down pedigrees professionally or for love of it. Those in the field may not have the intimate knowledge of the subject, but they know the practical effect of these bloodlines because it effects their bottom line.
Ivan More than 1 year ago
SR Vegas, I will be on the track Friday and Saturday (maybe Sunday). I will love to make it a complete Breeders Cup week, but still have to work up to Thursday at 11:00 pm. Anyway, we can hook up any of those two days and share opinions on the races. That goes to all other Form Bloggers who will be here next week. Looking forward!!!
Mike S More than 1 year ago
I want to take the "he has nothing left to prove" thing and reverse it. Instead of using it on a horse that has won 6 or 7 races in a row, why not apply it to a horse that was out of the money for 6 or 7 races? WELL ARMED started his career in England. For whatever reason, whether he was "too young," green, late maturing, didn't like turf, whatever, he didn't do very well. He finally won, I think, in his last start as a 2 year old when he was taken off the turf and ran on a synthetic track. I don't think that WELL ARMED's race record of 8 starts, 1 win, 1 second, 0 thirds indicates that he is a bad horse any more than I think ZARKAVA's unblemished race record proves that she's a great horse. WELL ARMED came back from a long hiatus and has become one of the top 2 handicap horses in the country. Had his owner adopted the "he has nothing left to prove" policy he would have retired the horse and considered him to be "not very good." But he didn't do that. He brought the horse back to the races (where he belongs) and the horse has blossomed and thrived and become an incredibly good racehorse. And when it's all said and done he might become "great." ZARKAVA is really good right now but that doesn't mean she would come back next year and be the same, does it? Of course it doesn't. Maybe she would come back next year and lose every race she's in! You just never know about horses. So I think that the "she has nothing left to prove" philosophy is a cop-out, ultimately, because it's based on boastful proclamations about a horse who hasn't raced long enough to truly establish - in The Big Picture - the level of "greatness" it has achieved. WELL ARMED didn't prove to be a bad horse. He has proved to be an excellent, wonderful, professional racehorse. And he has done that because of one thing - he is racing! ZARKAVA (or BIG BROWN) could come back next year and sweep all their races, or maybe win some and lose some, or lose everything. We just don't know. And we'll never know. And that's what is really too bad about it. I'm glad that WELL ARMED came back to prove that he is much, much better than his 2 and 3 year old form showed.
Ivan More than 1 year ago
For the Handi Gambling: $50 to win on #3 Fortunate Victory $8 Tri Box 3-4-5 ($48) $2 for the Breeders Cup Pot Tx.
rr More than 1 year ago
Handigambling 106 Typical SoCal "stellar" closing race. $10 EXB 5-9-10 $35 Win 9 $4 Win 4 (for my Aunt Lulu) $1 straight Super5 9-5-10-11-3-4
johnnyz More than 1 year ago
Mike s, and monmouthisajoke, I don't understand all the anguish and, the negative vibes. You two are bashing who? With your thoughts you would think that most everyone posting on Dan's blog has hailed Big Brown and Zarkava as the best of all time....Well I can't recall anyone posting such a thought about either horse? I will tell that I think they are both special animals. I could make this rather lengthy but, really don't need to. What Big Brown accomplished in his short, often injured career---7/8, ran the fastest ever thorograph time in Derby history, along with his Fla. Derby being the 4th fastest Derby prep time in history. Was he great I don't know but, I think as we watch horse after horse in the coming years fail from the 12 post at Gulfstream and, the #20 post in the Derby will shed some light as to the great performances by Big Brown in both. I just don't understand the animosity toward the horse. As far as Zarkava, what she accomplished as a 3 yr. old filly beating older horses in the Arc is a resounding statement of being a "Great" horse. Is she a great horse? I guess that is something each will have to decide on their own. What I do know if you watch and study the Diane, Vermeille, and the Arc Stakes there are not many in history that have won those three with the class and, ease that Zarkava did. The "ease" part has to be put into perspective as for most I have ever witnessed with the problems she had in all three from breaking bad, to traffic problems, to breaking from the impossible #1 post in the Arc have failed to win. Just don't understand all the negative vibes, when both have have been a positive for the sport of horse racing! Also the thing we all over look as fans, and gamblers is for owners and trainers---racing is a business. I own two business and a partner in another. Sometimes descisions are made and implemented that may not be popular with the public or our customers. Bottom line is none are made without considerable thought about doing the right thing for the profitability of the business. Well for people that own and race horses, while most are in it for the thrill, it is still a business.