06/21/2009 7:42PM

Wacky Weekend Payoffs

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It was a light weekend on the graded-stakes front, but a peculiar and interesting one when it came to pick-6 carryovers and payoffs on both coasts.

On Friday night at Hollywood, a $522k carryover drew another $1.75 million in fresh wagers. The parlay going into the last leg was only $8,871, and the race was won by Suances de Espana, the 7-2 second choice. With a carryover and only one actual winning favorite, a $100k payoff for a $40k parlay would have seemed more than square. So how did the pick-6 pay $498,711.20 to only three winners?

There were 55 live combos going into the finale, a maiden-claimer with six first-time starters in a field of 10. Of those 55, 18 were alive to the obvious-on-paper hot firster, Cactus Flyer, a bullet-working Jeff Mullins trainee who would go off the 8-5 favorite at post time. That pick-6 was posted as paying $83,118.40. Another 15 tickets (paying $99,742.80 each) were alive to second-time starter Kay S, who would go off the 3.80-1 third choice, just behind firster Suances de Espana. So even though the winner was a slightly lower price (at 3.50-1) than Kay S., there were 15 live tickets to Kay S. and only three to Suances de Espana.

As for Cactus Flyer, had he won the pick-6 would have paid even less than the posted $83k will-pay, because there was a late scratch in the race of Tribal Fire, to whom there had been 9 live tickets -- all of which were then transferred to Cactus Flyer. So in effect, this was a race with two well-bet firsters, but there were 27 (18+9) tickets alive to one and only 3 to the other. I can only imagine how thrilled people who might have been alive to both Cactus Flyer and Tribal Fire were to end up being alive to Cactus Flyer twice instead of picking up the obvious alternative, the bet-down Suances de Espana. Of course if this had been carded as the first rather than last leg of the sequence, bettors could have seen the action on the winner and included him instead of guessing in the dark.

On Saturday at Belmont, the G2 New York Stakes was switched from grass to dirt in the middle of the afternoon, before the start of the Pick-6, but a decision that could and should have been made earlier in the day. Perhaps the announcement was made early and loudly on the NYRA signal, but I'm forced to watch the races on TVG while the signal remains blacked out in Nassau County, and their commentators were still discussing and putting up their pick-4 tickets as if the New York were still on the grass well after the pick-6 had started. (The ongoing confusion may have contributed to the first big miss in Belmont's guaranteed $350k Saturday pick-4's -- only $257,050 was wagered.)

In any case, the victory by Icon Project (fourth choice of five) in the off-the-grass New York killed all tickets even before 28-1 One Lucky Date took the finale, so there was a $38k carryover into Sunday's card. Most tickets probably singled Cocoa Beach, who was 1-9 on the board (actually 0.15-1 in the mutuels) making her season debut in the for the four-horse Floral Park Heatherten Stakes. Cocoa Beach won the G1 Beldame over Ginger Punch in the Belmont slop last September, but didn't seem to care for today's Belmont slop and neglected to beat any of her three opponents, setting up boxcar place payoffs:

1 - With Flying Colors  $13.20  $25.20  ---

2 - Nicksappealinglady    ---      $33.80  ---

Here were the pools that led to those payoffs:

Cocoa Beach's defeat left only seven tickets alive -- three of them to 8-5 favorite Afrikaner, paying $51k each, and a single ticket to each of four other horses at $154k each -- but those four did not include 9-2 third choice Client Eight, a four-length winner.

So you can get to work on a $154,891 double-carry into Wednesday -- or maybe not until Wednesday morning: Four of the six races in the sequence are, you guessed it, scheduled for the grass. It's been raining all day (and all month) here, and the current forecast is for Monday showers, Tuesday showers and Wednesday thundershowers.

bochalls More than 1 year ago
Good luck to anyone trying the Pick 6 at Bel today. TOUGH sequence, esp. R6 and R8. My only advice is not to leave the J Morrison FTS in R6 off your ticket. Cannot locate even one single (which keeps me from playing this) in the sequence. Smokin Sarah (R7) looks like lone speed but she won her last and now drops in class...hmmmm. Posted about the snakebitten Weaver earlier this week, but he may win with his FTS today, as the field is WOEFUL. Good thing about all that rain last week is that we will have some full turf fields to play with in the upcoming days....and a whole lotta bias aided 'play againsts' and bias hindered horses to watch...GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY THE P6 today, but I want a carry!!!
B Branch More than 1 year ago
Steve, yr readers show far more creative thinking than management at any track I've attended...yet only WO showed any evidence anyone is listening..on top of that, it is NO surprise the KY legislature can't make an intelligent business decision...good bye EP & TP ownership would be economically wise to follow suit.
p ensign More than 1 year ago
Hi Steve: You never really answered your own question about why the p-6 paid so much more than the parlay at Hollywood on Friday- in my opinion it's simply that only one favorite, of either the morning-line or post-time variety, in the sequence won. With a secondary reason that some of the other winners weren't able to be isolated and used collectively with the one 4-5 shot that did win. Q: How often do we see a string of six $9-14 horses in a row result in a carryover, when three 8-5s, a 3-1, and two $45 bombs result in a payoff on anywhere from 2 to 52 tickets? A: More than most might believe. I always laugh when the TVG guys get all excited after a $68 dollar horse wins one race and start speculating about the inevitable carryover. Your a,b,c,x methodology notwithstanding, there are players who are able to hit large payoffs with a "single, single, single, single, all, all-" or "single, single, single, all, all, all" strategy that necessitates choosing excellent standouts and then relying on chaos theory to bring unexpected results in wide open events and even better, the rare wheelbarrow score. I don't know how much information you're able to find out about the tickets that do get played, (although I know that from time to time when a huge payoff is made, the actual construction of the ticket is made public), but if you have access to computer printouts of, for instance, the 55 tickets that were alive that night, I know some people certainly wouldn't mind seeing how they were drawn up... thanks as always
B-Square More than 1 year ago
As DRF points out, CD opens the gates for historic PM racing and staffs poorly, i.e., management continues to mismanage customer service. Their only concern appears to center around slot machines. For on track handle and concessions, Spring/Summer/Fall P.M. racing @ all tracks appears to make sense, at least during the week....it is certainly worth the experiment.
e_s More than 1 year ago
Hey Prozacjack--perhaps you should appreciate Buckley's dig at the Harvard faculty in context--he went to Yale.
Eddie Walker More than 1 year ago
Rich, You hit the nail on the head regarding Santa Anita. The Pro Ride surface is by far the worst of the synthetic tracks and has comprimised, what was one of the finest race meets in the country. The only racetrack that has benefited from the installation of synthetics is Turfway Park because they race in harsh winter conditions.
Dan MacKenzie More than 1 year ago
arcstats - the racing operation you describe was run in 1975 at Roosevelt Raceway. I agree that the time has come for low-overhead racing run strictly for remote wagering. It needs to augment a facility - not be a subsidized millstone - as racing has become in many jurisdictions: ********** NY Times; March 4, 1975 Roosevelt Struck, Races Go On for OTB; Strike Closes Westbury facility, but Races Go On WESTBURY, L.I., March 3 In the solitude of an empty track, Roosevelt Raceway staged an eerie program of harness racing tonight after pari-mutuel ticket agents had gone on strike and forced the track to shut its doors to the public.
PGM More than 1 year ago
Tommy, According to the Form's M. Farrell, at http://www.drf.com/news/article/104768.html Studart is injured and out indefinitely.
Hammer More than 1 year ago
A little off topic, but interesting to OTB issue: Last week Inter-track partners closed the only OTB in Chicago's Loop ( business district). This was the third most profitable OTB in the state. Located two blocks from the train, many bettors would stop by on the way home. I also ate lunch there hundreds of times over the years. Now closed.
SherpaGuide More than 1 year ago
A nightime Derby would not be about the crowd at Churchill, its about TV. What a great idea. I host a Derby party every year for friends that only watch the Triple Crown, and people like that would love a Derby on Saturday night. Every sports bar across america, mom and pop watching TV at home on Saturday night...the ratings would be huge...and the pools even bigger!