07/28/2007 3:00PM



Maybe that mythical play ain't dead yet: According to the early pick-four probables on the NYRA website, NOBODY PICKED FOUR if the 4,7,8 or 11 wins the 5th. So the mythical play would get seven 3-out-of-4's with the 4, 7 or 8. Sweet.

The other probable payouts are:

2: $61,231
5: $69,978
1: $122,462
3,6,9,10,12: $163,282

Just for the record, an all-alll-all-all would have cost a mere $14,256. See what happens when you get cheap and start shaving horses off your mythical tickets?

aparagon4u More than 1 year ago
Is it me or do the guaranteed Pick 4's always end up chalky. The early Pick 4 at Saratoga had no guarantee, attracted $326,747 and paid an eye-popping $163,282. The late Pick 4 which was guaranteed at $500,000 attracted $1,092,699 and paid a pathetic $370.50. I know stakes races are usually more formful then other races but this is a joke. It seems that every summer Saratoga has a few guaranteed Pick 4 pools and more often then not they pay very little. Does it make more sense to focus on the other Pick 4 on these cards? Also does the early Pick 4 typically pay more then the late Pick 4 in New York even though it attracts a lot less money? It seems the early Pick 4 is tougher with low level maiden claimers and cheap claimers, which tend to produce longshots much more often then graded stakes and allowance races. It would be nice to see a comparison of average and median payouts for the early versus the late Pick 4 for New York tracks for the entire year, as well as the payouts for all of the guaranteed pools so far. Lenny
Steven Crist More than 1 year ago
Lenny, I don't have the charts in front of me but I'm remembering something like a $63 pick four and a $500 pick six on Travers day last year. At least there were no odds-on favorites in yesterday's Whitney sequence, and the P6 was a healthy $31k (if you could possibly come up with the first winner. In general you're right about late P4's paying less because the stake/feature tends to have a smaller field and a higher chance of an odds-on fave. I would love to have a spreadsheet of all NYRA p4 and p6 payouts, but unfortunately Equibase and our database do not seem to store multirace payoffs as searchable data.
Tom O'Keefe More than 1 year ago
Steve: Great blog. Speaking of Pick Four's, Opening Day reminded me that we still face that ridiculous pari-mutuel rule in NY where dead- heats result in identical payouts irrespective of the win odds of the horses involved. You may recall that we corresponded about that in the past, and I still have hope that your continued attention to the issue will result in an equitable change to the current rule. Regards.